BRAZIL · ELECTION
Published Monday, 26 October, 7:24 a.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), White House statements, US Trade Representative
Key Facts
- —The silence As of Monday morning we found no congratulation to Lula from the White House or the State Department.
- —What Trump said “We are watching,” on Sunday; later, according to EFE, Brazil had just applied Joe Biden’s playbook.
- —The Bolsonaro link Flávio’s brother Eduardo has spent months lobbying Washington and now wants pressure on Brazil.
- —What is at stake A 25% US tariff on most Brazilian goods, rare earths and a US-led anti-cartel coalition.
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Who will win: Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · Brazil election poll data (CSV) · All election stories
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil has re-elected its president, and Washington has not yet said whether it accepts him. Before the result, Donald Trump said “we are watching” and picked no side; since Lula won, we found no congratulation from the White House or the State Department.
The one hint of Trump’s mood comes from the news agency EFE, which reported that he said Brazil had “just applied” Joe Biden’s playbook and that communists do not give up power once they win it. It is a single report and we could not find the original wording, so treat it with care; see our report on it.
The official silence matters because Lula’s rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, refuses to concede and the Bolsonaro family has friends in Trump’s circle. Our companion piece explains whether his court challenge has any chance.
Why Washington’s Silence Matters
After the first round on 4 October, Trump called the result “a very, very big victory,” and Flávio visited him in the Oval Office in May. His brother Eduardo has spent months in the United States pressing for sanctions on Brazilian officials.
Other Americans have not waited: Senator Bernie Sanders congratulated Lula, while Donald Trump Jr. criticised the extra voting hours. The next two days will show which side the White House joins.
What the US Wants From Brazil
Three things sit on the table: relief from a 25% tariff on most Brazilian goods, access to Brazil’s rare earths (minerals used in phones and electric cars), and a US-led anti-cartel coalition that Brazil has not joined.
Lula has made clear he will not be pushed around. In his victory speech he said Brazil would not accept being “anyone’s backyard.”
Analysts describe his style with Trump as harsh words mixed with pragmatism, not ideological anti-Americanism.
A President Without a Majority
Lula won the presidency but not Congress. Flávio’s Liberal Party won the most seats in the lower house in October, so Lula needs centrist and conservative allies to pass a budget or any trade deal with Washington.
What It Means for US Readers
If you do business with Brazil, the question is whether Washington works with Lula or waits out Bolsonaro’s challenge. A quick, friendly statement would calm the tariff talks; silence keeps nerves high over the real, Brazilian stocks and rare-earth supply.
What We Do Not Know
We do not know when Washington will speak officially, whether it will recognise Lula, or whether the 25% tariff will change. We will update this article when the White House or the State Department comments.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has the Trump administration recognised Lula’s win?
Not as of Monday morning: we found no congratulation from the White House or the State Department. Trump said “we are watching” before the result, and EFE reports he later said Brazil had applied Biden’s playbook.
Why does Washington care about Brazil’s election?
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and a major trade partner. The US has a 25% tariff on most Brazilian goods and wants access to its rare earths and Brazil in its anti-cartel coalition.
Could the US back Bolsonaro’s challenge?
No US official has done so as of Monday morning. Eduardo Bolsonaro is lobbying for foreign pressure, but the TSE has already declared Lula the winner.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) · White House and State Department channels · US Trade Representative · Bolsonaro campaign statements.
More: Brazil news, every day from The Rio Times.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief