Brazil’s Election, Two Weeks Out: What Expats Need to Know Before the 4 October Vote

BRAZIL · POLITICS & ELECTIONS

Two weeks from today, Brazil votes. Lula leads the first-round polls, while runoff simulations against Flávio Bolsonaro show a statistical tie; the intelligence agency has privately rated US pressure on the election “critical”; and public distrust of the Supreme Court has hit a record. For the half-million-plus foreign residents who cannot vote, the practical answer is simple — nothing changes on the ground — but the next two weeks will shape the country expats live in. Here is what is actually known, clearly attributed, and what to watch.

Where the Race Stands

Two weeks out, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the first-round polls — the vote actually happening on 4 October — while second-round runoff simulations against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro show a statistical tie, meaning the gap between them sits within the polls’ margin of error. Both statements are the pollsters’ own description of their numbers, not a prediction: a first-round lead says who starts ahead; a statistical tie says the runoff race is too close for the surveys to call.

The first round on Sunday 4 October also covers governors, senators and federal and state deputies, but the presidential contest is the one that moves markets and headlines. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, a runoff follows on Sunday 25 October, three weeks later.

The Abin Warning — Both Halves of It

A confidential report by Abin, Brazil’s intelligence agency, dated late August, rated US pressure on the election as “critical”. The report entered the public domain this week through Folha de S.Paulo columnist Mônica Bergamo and was reported on 19 September by Metrópoles and CNN Brasil.

Precision matters here, in both directions. The report describes political pressure — statements, diplomacy and leverage from Washington — and rates its intensity as critical. It does not allege tampering with votes or with Brazil’s electronic voting machines. Reading it as proof of interference goes beyond the document; reading it as nothing ignores the agency’s own strongest classification. Both halves of that sentence are what is verified.

Record Distrust of the Supreme Court

A Datafolha poll published on Friday 18 September shows distrust of the Supremo Tribunal Federal at a record 48%, up from 43% in March, in a series the institute has run since 2012. The divide is partisan: 69% of Flávio Bolsonaro supporters distrust the court, against 22% among Lula voters.

The STF is not a bystander in this election. The court has driven the cases against former president Jair Bolsonaro — convicted in September 2025, sentenced to 27 years and serving that sentence since November 2025 — and its justices are central players in the campaign’s arguments. A record distrust number two weeks before voting is part of the climate in which more than 158 million registered voters go to the polls.

What Changes for Expats — Honestly, Little

Voting in Brazil is for Brazilian citizens. Foreign residents — permanent or otherwise — do not vote, and no residency, visa or immigration rule changes on 4 October. Election day is a Sunday; polling stations operate mainly in schools, and normal weekend commerce continues. There is no verified reason to change plans.

What the election does affect is the economic weather expats live in. The real closed Friday at 5.1575 per US dollar (PTAX) after a soft week, and the Selic rate stands at 13.75%. What a Lula or a Bolsonaro victory would mean for the currency is a forecast, not a fact — treat anyone selling certainty on that as selling something.

What Comes Next

On Tuesday 22 September, both Lula and US President Donald Trump address the UN General Assembly in New York — an unusual shared stage two weeks before the vote, given the Abin report’s subject. Then the final campaign stretch to Sunday 4 October. If a runoff is needed, it follows on Sunday 25 October, three weeks later. For daily context, see our daily guide for Sunday 20 September.

More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times. See also our daily guide for Sunday 20 September.

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