SUDAN · HUMANITARIAN
Key Facts
- The place Sudan, where the army and the paramilitary RSF (Rapid Support Forces) have fought since April 2023.
- What happened Fuel stations in Khartoum, the capital, were closing for lack of petrol and diesel in mid-September.
- The warning On 12 October a UN-backed hunger monitor said famine risk is growing in Darfur and Kordofan.
- The scale Nearly 19.5 million Sudanese faced acute hunger this year, more than 40% of the population.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a betting platform, prices a Sudan ceasefire by 31 December at 7% (6 Nov, 1:48 p.m. ET).
Sudan is short of petrol and diesel, and the shortage is landing on the farms and aid convoys that stand between millions of people and famine. Fuel stations in Khartoum, the capital, were closing for lack of petrol and diesel in mid-September 2026, and no report shows the shortage has ended.
For US readers, the story matters because Sudan’s hunger crisis is one of the largest in the world and relief depends on international donors. Fuel decides whether food reaches people, so every shortage raises the cost of any relief effort.
Why Fuel Decides Who Eats
Trucks carry food and medicine to displaced families, and diesel pumps water onto farmland. Without fuel, both stop.
The shortage matters most in a country divided between the army and the RSF, where aid must cross a war zone. Any disruption to fuel therefore slows deliveries to people who already have little.
We have earlier explained why Sudan keeps running out of fuel. Sudan’s currency has weakened sharply during the war, which makes imported fuel costly.
What the Hunger Monitor Says
On Monday 12 October 2026, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a hunger monitor backed by the United Nations, warned that famine risk is growing. It named Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan, the western and south-central regions at the heart of the war.
The IPC said a severe drought linked to El Niño, a Pacific weather pattern that can cut rainfall, now covers more than half of the country. In North Darfur, 64% of cropland shows poor plant growth.
Two trucks hired by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) came under fire on 2 and 3 October, and at least one person died. As of 8 October, less than half of the humanitarian appeal for Sudan was funded.
From February to May, the IPC counted nearly 19.5 million people, more than 40% of Sudan’s population, in acute food insecurity. Of those, 135,000 were in Phase 5, the most severe level, which means starvation and death from hunger or disease.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a platform where people bet real money on events, the market on a Sudan ceasefire by 31 December 2026 trades at 7%, meaning bettors see it as unlikely. About US$15,100 has been traded on that market, and about US$119,600 across all deadlines of the same event, as of 1:48 p.m. ET on 6 November.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you give to Sudan relief or follow US aid policy, expect each delivery to cost more while fuel stays scarce. Funders may need to pay more for the same reach, or accept that fewer people are fed.
Travellers should not plan trips to Sudan, because fuel shortages add to the risks of an active war zone. Anyone sending money to relatives or charities there should expect higher transport costs to cut into what arrives.
What Is Not Known
It is not known how much fuel is in stock, or when new shipments will reach Port Sudan. No official November price list for petrol or diesel has been confirmed.
Nobody has confirmed what share of aid deliveries the fuel shortage has stopped. The full scale of hunger in Darfur and Kordofan is also not yet measured.
More: Sudan news in English, every day from The Rio Times. See also why governments warn of famine in Sudan and the stalled search for peace talks.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why Is Sudan Short of Fuel?
Fuel stations in Khartoum were closing for lack of petrol and diesel in mid-September 2026. A weak currency makes imported fuel costly.
Is Sudan Close to Famine?
The IPC, a UN-backed hunger monitor, warned on 12 October 2026 that famine risk is growing in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan. Earlier this year it counted nearly 19.5 million people in acute hunger.
Does the Fuel Shortage Affect Aid?
Fuel powers the trucks that carry aid and the pumps that water crops, so shortages slow both. Less than half of the humanitarian appeal was funded as of 8 October.
What Is the IPC?
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification is a UN-backed system that rates hunger in five phases. Phase 5, the worst, means starvation and death from hunger or disease.
Sources: UN News Service, report on the IPC alert, 12 October 2026; UNICEF, FAO and WFP statement on the IPC analysis for Sudan, May 2026; Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), Sudan famine risk alert, 12 October 2026, and acute food insecurity analysis, May 2026; Polymarket, Sudan civil war ceasefire market, 6 November 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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