Key Facts
- UN envoy Pekka Haavisto says the UN still awaits talks with the political bloc allied to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary force fighting Sudan’s army.
- No date, venue or time zone is set; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, is named only as a possible venue.
- Kalma, a displacement camp in South Darfur, recorded 2,750 malnutrition cases in October, with about 20 children hospitalized daily.
- A UN-appointed fact-finding mission says civilians in El Obeid, a city in Kordofan, fear both RSF drone strikes and army arrests.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a betting market, gives a Sudan ceasefire by Dec. 31, 2026 a 10.5% chance (bets, not polls), as of Nov. 3, 2026, 6:22 p.m. ET.
This story is part of our coverage of the sudan war. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Latest: Drones Hit Three More Sudan Power Sites
UN Envoy Still Waiting for the RSF Bloc
Pekka Haavisto, the UN personal envoy for Sudan and a former foreign minister of Finland, said the UN is "still waiting for a meeting with Hemedti's bloc to take place before Christmas." He spoke at the Manama Dialogue, an annual security forum in Bahrain, on Nov. 2, 2026, adding a diplomatic strand to the Sudan war now in its fourth year.
Hemedti is the nickname of Gen. Mohamed Dagalo, who commands the RSF, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary force that has fought Sudan's army since April 2023. The UN has already met parties close to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and an anti-war coalition led by Abdalla Hamdok, a former prime minister.
Haavisto said the October meeting with the anti-war coalition in Addis Ababa was a good one that already touched on the substance of a civilian government. He added that a meeting with the RSF's political bloc could also take place in the Ethiopian capital.
Quintet and Quad Press for Civilian Rule
The Quintet is the UN, the European Union, the African Union, the Arab League and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, a regional bloc of East African states. The Quad, made up of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates, is also pushing for civilian rule.
The United States has said there is "no future" for either of Sudan's warring generals in the country's political leadership.
Generals Show Little Sign of Give
The UN-appointed Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan said last week that civilians in El Obeid live in constant fear of RSF drone strikes and of arrests by SAF security cells. Mona Rishmawi, a member of the mission, said thousands have been detained, and the mission said RSF strikes there may amount to war crimes.
At the UN Security Council in New York on Oct. 16, US envoy Jeff Bartos called for a humanitarian truce and a wider arms embargo.
Hunger Deepens in Darfur's Kalma Camp
Kalma camp in South Darfur recorded 2,750 malnutrition cases in October, said in a statement Adam Rijal, spokesperson for the Coordination of Displaced Persons and Refugees, a group representing camp residents. About 20 children are hospitalized each day, and health centers see 200 to 300 patients daily with illnesses including malaria, typhoid and anemia.
Rijal blamed falling aid, rising food prices and crop failure linked to El Niño, a periodic climate pattern that disrupts rainfall. He warned conditions could worsen over the next three to six months and urged the warring parties to agree to a 90-day humanitarian truce.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money on outcomes, about US$120,000 has been traded across contracts on whether a Sudan ceasefire is announced by a set date. The Dec. 31, 2026 deadline trades at 10.5%, with about US$15,000 wagered on that contract, as of Nov. 3, 2026, 6:22 p.m. ET.
These are bets, not polls, and trading is thin. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Washington is a member of the Quad and has said neither Sudanese general has a political future. At the UN Security Council, a US envoy pressed for a humanitarian truce and a broader arms embargo.
What Is Not Known
No date, venue or time zone has been confirmed for the meeting with the RSF's political bloc, and "before Christmas" is the only timing given. Addis Ababa was named only as a possible location.
We could not confirm the date of the next Security Council session on Sudan.
The Kalma figures come from a camp representative and could not be independently verified.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the UN envoy say about talks with the RSF?
Pekka Haavisto said the UN is still waiting for a meeting with the political bloc allied to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which it hopes will take place before Christmas. No date has been confirmed.
Who has the UN already met on Sudan's transition?
The UN has met parties close to the Sudanese army and an anti-war coalition led by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. Haavisto described both meetings as good.
How bad is the hunger in Darfur?
Kalma camp in South Darfur recorded 2,750 malnutrition cases in October, according to a camp spokesperson. About 20 children are hospitalized daily.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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