Canada Abandons Cuba, Arrivals Fall 76.9%

Published Thursday, 29 October, 7:10 p.m. ET (7:10 p.m. Havana) · Source: Cuba’s National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), Cuban government statements

Cuba’s beaches are still there, but the tourists are not. The island received 477,707 international visitors in the first nine months of 2026, down 65.1% on a year earlier, according to preliminary figures from ONEI, the state statistics office.

That is 890,140 fewer arrivals, and the Cuban government blames US pressure. For anyone following Cuba news or asking whether Americans can travel to Cuba, the numbers show how far the squeeze has reached the island’s biggest earner of foreign currency.

Canada and Russia Stay Away

Canada is Cuba’s largest source of visitors, and it fell 76.9% to about 129,000 people. Russia sent 21,235 visitors, 67,205 fewer than a year earlier.

Cubans living abroad made 117,386 trips, about 60,000 fewer than before. Argentina sent 15,260 visitors, a fall of 39.9%.

Why Cuba Blames Washington

The Cuban government says US measures drove the slump. It points to a squeeze on oil supplies since January, new sanctions from May, suspended airline routes and hotel closures.

The government also says seven international hotel chains, which ran about 46% of the country’s more than 80,000 tourist rooms, have left. These claims come from the Cuban government and we have not independently verified them.

Is It Only Sanctions?

Probably not. Fuel shortages, long blackouts and fewer flights make a Cuban holiday harder to book and harder to enjoy, whatever Washington does.

How much of the fall comes from US policy and how much from home-grown problems is not settled.The 2026 ONEI data are preliminary and come from a state agency, so they may be revised.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket shows a 9.0% chance of US military action against Cuba by 31 December (US$7.67 million traded in the market). The chance that Miguel Díaz-Canel, Cuba’s president, is out as leader by that date stands at 9.0% (US$2.30 million traded across all deadlines), as of 7:00 p.m. ET on 29 October.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

Travellers should expect thin flights, closed hotels and scarce fuel. Investors and airlines watching the island can read the collapse as a sign that Havana’s hard-currency income is shrinking fast.

For the wider picture, see our explainer on Cuba and the United States.

What Is Not Known

Neither Washington nor Havana has published a breakdown that separates the effect of sanctions from Cuba’s own crisis. Reports differ slightly on some sub-figures, so we use rounded numbers where they disagree.

October’s total, and whether the island’s recent economic reforms will lift arrivals, are still unknown.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did Cuba’s tourism fall in 2026?

Cuba received 477,707 international visitors from January through September 2026, down 65.1% on the same period of 2025. That is 890,140 fewer arrivals, according to preliminary figures from ONEI, the state statistics office.

Do fewer Americans visit Cuba?

Yes. The United States sent 45,895 visitors through September, 42,984 fewer than a year earlier. Canada, Cuba’s largest market, fell 76.9%.

Sources: National Office of Statistics and Information of Cuba (ONEI) preliminary tourism data, 29 October 2026; Cuban government statements; Polymarket market data, 29 October 2026.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error