ARGENTINA · MARKETS
Key Facts
- The country Argentina lifted its currency controls on individuals in April 2025, and households have since bought US dollars in large volumes through banks.
- Why it matters Household dollar demand competes with the central bank’s drive to rebuild reserves under its IMF programme and shapes pressure on the peso ahead of the October 2027 presidential election.
- Why now The central bank’s exchange-market data for September 2026 reached the public on 30 October 2026.
- What happened Argentine individuals bought US$2.896 billion in cash dollars in September 2026, the second-highest month of the year after July’s US$3.319 billion.
- The numbers Sales were US$425 million, net purchases US$2.471 billion, nine-month purchases US$23.8 billion and purchases since April 2025 about US$50 billion.
- What it means for you Dollar demand of this size is a gauge of confidence in the peso for US investors in Argentine bonds and companies, and it keeps pressure on the dollars the government needs for reserves.
- Still open Whether purchases rise again before the October 2027 election, as they did before the 2025 vote, is not known.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, as of 4:31 a.m. ET on 31 October 2026: Javier Milei 43.5% and Axel Kicillof 28.5% to win the October 2027 presidential election on about US$1.2 million traded, and 3.1% for Milei leaving office before 2027 on about US$168,000.
- Power Index Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 61.2 points (October 2026 edition).
Argentine individuals bought US$2.896 billion in cash dollars in September 2026, the second-highest monthly total of the year, according to the central bank’s exchange-market data for the month. That brings their purchases since the controls were lifted in April 2025 to about US$50 billion, a sum that competes with the central bank’s drive to rebuild reserves under its IMF programme.
Purchases in the first nine months of 2026 reached US$23.8 billion, close to 90% of the whole of 2025, a year in which the run-up to legislative elections drove the peak. Infobae said the central bank’s own report put 2026 at between US$26 billion and US$30 billion, a range that the nine-month pace already points above.
What the Central Bank Data Show
Individuals bought US$2.896 billion in cash in September and sold US$425 million, which leaves net purchases of US$2.471 billion, according to the central bank’s exchange-market series. August purchases were US$2.853 billion and the 2026 high came in July at US$3.319 billion.
The monthly report, as quoted by Infobae, counted about 1.6 million buyers and 758,000 sellers in September, with the buyer count down from 1.7 million in August. A lower number of buyers with a slightly higher total means the average purchase per buyer rose.
Where the Dollars Went
The central bank estimated that of about US$2.4 billion in net cash and unspecified-purpose dollar outflows in September, about US$800 million covered card and other current spending abroad, US$800 million stayed deposited in local banks and US$800 million raised external assets. About two thirds of that net outflow therefore went to savings and one third to current expenses, Infobae calculated from the report.
Dollars left in local banks fell, according to the same report, from about US$1.1 billion in August to US$800 million in September, while those added to external assets rose from US$700 million to US$800 million. Together, deposits and external assets took US$1.6 billion in September against US$1.8 billion in August.
Why Election Years Matter
In 2025, a year of legislative elections, individuals bought more than US$26 billion, with the peak at about US$5.1 billion in September and about US$4.7 billion in October before the vote. In November 2025, after the governing party won, purchases fell to US$1.6 billion.
Infobae noted that 2027 is also an election year and could bring more pressure on the dollar, using 2025 as the nearest precedent. A simple extrapolation of the 2026 nine-month average of US$2.644 billion a month points to about US$31.7 billion for the year, which would top the 2025 total and add to the savings Argentines already keep outside banks, the subject of an earlier report on Argentina’s mattress dollars.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a platform for real-money bets, Javier Milei trades at 43.5% to win the presidential election scheduled under the market’s rules for 24 October 2027, ahead of Axel Kicillof at 28.5% and Sergio Massa at about 15%, with about US$1.2 million traded on that market as of 4:31 a.m. ET on 31 October 2026. A separate market on whether Milei ceases to be president before 2027 prices Yes at 3.1% on about US$168,000 of volume.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US investors in Argentine bonds and companies, household dollar demand is a gauge of how much confidence savers place in the peso, and it competes with the dollars the central bank needs for reserves. Infobae reported that IMF communications director Julie Kozack said on 29 October that the government committed to continue rebuilding international reserves.
For US companies selling into Argentina or paying staff there, the official retail dollar rose about 4.3% in 2026 while consumer prices rose 23.6% from January to September, according to Infobae’s calculation. That gap keeps local costs high in dollar terms, and the central bank has been buying dollars itself, as an earlier report on the central bank’s dollar purchases showed.
What Is Not Known
The central bank labels its figures provisional and subject to revision. Its data annex shows a cumulative total of purchases since April 2025 of about US$50.4 billion, against the US$50.2 billion quoted from the monthly report.
It is not known whether purchases will rise as the 2027 election approaches, or how much of the cash dollars bought stay in the country rather than move into foreign accounts. The central bank’s estimate that about US$800 million of September’s net outflow stayed in local banks is an estimate, not a count.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many dollars did Argentines buy in September 2026?
Individuals bought US$2.896 billion in cash dollars in September 2026 and sold US$425 million, leaving net purchases of US$2.471 billion. It was the second-highest month of the year after July’s US$3.319 billion.
How much have Argentines bought since the controls ended?
Purchases by individuals since April 2025 total about US$50 billion gross, according to the central bank’s data. The 2026 total through September is US$23.8 billion.
When did Argentina lift currency controls on individuals?
Argentina removed currency restrictions on individuals in April 2025. Since then, individuals have bought dollars through banks in the official exchange market.
Who leads the betting on Argentina’s 2027 election?
On Polymarket, Javier Milei trades at 43.5% and Axel Kicillof at 28.5% to win the presidency as of 4:31 a.m. ET on 31 October 2026. The vote is scheduled under the market’s rules for 24 October 2027.
Do Argentines’ dollar purchases affect the peso?
Household demand for dollars adds pressure on the peso and on central bank reserves, which the IMF says the government has committed to keep rebuilding. The September data show purchases staying near US$2.9 billion a month.
Sources: Banco Central de la República Argentina, Evolución del Mercado de Cambios y Balance Cambiario, data annex to September 2026 (xlsx, opened 31 October 2026); Infobae, 30 October 2026; Infobae, 29 October 2026; Polymarket public market data, pulled 4:31 a.m. ET on 31 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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