ARGENTINA · DIPLOMACY
Key Facts
- —What is happening Argentina’s government, including President Javier Milei and the Foreign Ministry, had made no public statement on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s runoff win in Brazil by early Monday, 26 October 2026.
- —Why it matters Milei openly backed Flávio Bolsonaro and called Lula a thief, so the silence leaves Argentina’s largest neighbour and trading partner without a word of recognition.
- —The numbers Lula won with 51.79% on Sunday, 25 October; 12 Argentine libertarian deputies travelled to Rio de Janeiro to back his rival, who has not conceded.
- —Who is who Milei leads Argentina’s libertarian government and presents himself as Donald Trump’s regional ally; adviser Santiago Caputo was the one official to post, calling the outcome part of the plan.
- —What to watch Whether Milei congratulates Lula once Flávio Bolsonaro’s challenge is resolved, and whether Brazil restores its ambassador to Buenos Aires after recalling him in July.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Milei a 46.5% chance of winning Argentina’s 2027 presidential election and Axel Kicillof 29.5% (26 October, 3:40 a.m. ET).
- —Power Index Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 61.2 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you US investors in Argentine bonds and shares should watch how Milei’s bet on Trump-style allies fares, and travellers can expect no change in entry rules from the silence.
Argentina’s president spent weeks attacking Brazil’s winner. After the vote, his office and his foreign minister said nothing in public.
Argentina’s government had not commented in public on Lula’s runoff victory in Brazil by early Monday, 26 October 2026. President Javier Milei, who backed the loser, had not congratulated the winner, Perfil and Infobae reported.
The question of Milei and Lula matters to US readers because Milei presents himself as Donald Trump’s closest regional ally. Lula won with 51.79% on Sunday, 25 October, in g1’s full count, and the loser, Flávio Bolsonaro, has not conceded.
What Argentina Has and Has Not Said
Perfil reported late on Sunday that neither Milei nor Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno had taken a position. It called the silence striking after weeks of attacks.
Infobae, in a note published early Monday, said the ruling party avoided any public comment. It added that Milei did not greet Lula, even though both candidates spoke after the result.
Infobae also reports that Chile’s president, José Antonio Kast, and Paraguay’s Santiago Peña were among the first to congratulate Lula. In a separate report, it says opposition figures such as ex-president Cristina Kirchner and Sergio Massa also did.
On X, presidential adviser Santiago Caputo was the one official to speak publicly. He wrote “Tranquilos, porque todo marcha acorde al plan”, or “Relax, all is going to plan”.
Infobae adds that some government sectors warn of “possible fraud”, echoing Bolsonaro’s camp. The sources are anonymous, and no official has said so on the record.
How Milei Backed Bolsonaro
Milei called Lula a “thief” at an event for Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign in São Paulo in July, the Buenos Aires Times reported. Brazil then recalled its ambassador from Buenos Aires, which the paper says was a first between the neighbours.
On Tuesday, 20 October, Milei wrote on X that he hoped Lula’s “last dirty campaign trick” would not include “stealing the election”. Brazil’s Foreign Ministry called it an “unacceptable attempt at foreign interference”, the Buenos Aires Times reported.
On Friday, 23 October, Milei told a Fundación Faro gala a Bolsonaro win would advance an “international of the right”. The Casa Rosada transcript has him calling Argentina an “austral beacon” beside the United States.
Perfil reported that on Sunday, during voting, he also posted “Lula ladrón y mentiroso”, meaning “Lula thief and liar”. La Nación adds that 12 libertarian deputies travelled to Rio at their own cost, the bloc says, to join Bolsonaro’s closing rally.
What the Defeat Means at Home
Infobae quotes officials who say the result does not change Milei’s regional role or his direct line to Trump. A regular visitor to Casa Rosada also told Infobae the defeat weakens his story of an international of the right.
Another source told Infobae that a rightward tilt in Brazil “gives air to Peronism”, the opposition movement Kirchner and Massa belong to. Argentina votes for president in 2027, so these readings are about domestic politics as much as Brazil.
La Nación describes Brazil as Argentina’s main trading partner. Diplomatic ties are now run at the level of a chargé d’affaires, it says, and Infobae’s sources expect relations to stay difficult.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, Milei is at 46.5% to win the 2027 election (bid 46%, ask 47%) on 26 October, 3:40 a.m. ET. Kicillof, the Buenos Aires governor and a Peronist, is at 29.5%, and Massa at about 13.8%.
Patricia Bullrich, a senator and former security minister, is at about 5.1%. The full election market has traded about US$1.12 million, and the Milei contract about US$280,000.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Milei has tied his foreign policy to Trump, so a Lula win complicates the idea of a Washington-friendly right across South America. One official told Infobae that betting hard on a trend has costs, with the US midterms due on Tuesday, 3 November.
The Buenos Aires Times reports that Democrat Gregory Meeks called Milei’s endorsement of Florida Republican María Elvira Salazar an “inappropriate intrusion”. Investors in Argentine assets may now weigh politics as well as data.
Related reports cover the Falklands bill, the LIBRA ruling, what Lula’s win means and the refusal to concede. The Argentina news hub and the guide to Argentina give more context.
What Is Not Known
The latest reports found date from late Sunday and early Monday, so Milei may have commented since. No Foreign Ministry or Casa Rosada statement on the result was found, and neither official site listed one on Monday morning.
Argentine outlets give Lula between 51.75% and 51.79%, because they published at different moments. The figure here is g1’s count of 100% of polling stations, and the electoral court’s own results page could not be opened.
The claim of possible fraud comes from unnamed officials, and no evidence of it was found. Justice Nunes Marques said the voting extension did not change the final result, the Buenos Aires Times reports.
What Comes Next
Milei returns to his local agenda on Monday with a cabinet meeting, his first in two weeks, Infobae reports. On Tuesday, 27 October, he is due in Catamarca for the opening of Rio Tinto lithium carbonate plants.
Bolsonaro says he will file an appeal at the electoral court on Monday, which Infobae says has delayed an expected Argentine reaction. A congratulation from Milei is not guaranteed, and silence does not mean a formal diplomatic break.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Milei congratulate Lula on his win?
No public congratulation had been reported by early Monday, 26 October. Perfil and Infobae both say Milei and the Foreign Ministry stayed silent.
Why did Milei back Flávio Bolsonaro?
Milei is a close ally of the Bolsonaro family and wants a regional right-wing alliance. He told a gala on 23 October that a win would help build an “international of the right”.
Who won the Brazilian runoff?
Lula won on Sunday, 25 October 2026, with 51.79% of the vote, in the full count reported by g1. Flávio Bolsonaro has not conceded and plans an appeal.
What is the state of Argentina–Brazil relations?
Brazil recalled its ambassador from Buenos Aires in July after Milei called Lula a thief. La Nación says ties are now at chargé d’affaires level.
What do prediction markets say about Argentina’s 2027 election?
Polymarket gives Milei about 46.5% and Kicillof about 29.5% as of 26 October, 3:40 a.m. ET. These are real-money bets, not polls.
Sources: Perfil, 25 October; Infobae, 26 October; Infobae, 25 October; La Nación, 25 October; Perfil, 25 October (second report); Buenos Aires Times, 20 October; Buenos Aires Times, 21 October; Buenos Aires Times, 25 October; g1, 26 October; Casa Rosada, Faro gala speech, 23 October; Infobae, 26 October (reactions); Buenos Aires Times, 21 October (Meeks); Polymarket prices read on 26 October, 3:40 a.m. ET (all accessed 26 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: When is the Brazil runoff election. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.