Gold Hits a 12-Month Low as Fed Hike Bets Build
Key Facts
- Gold closed Friday at US$3,928 an ounce, its lowest in 12 months, after a 2.00% fall and a third losing session in a row.
- Silver last settled at US$51.94 an ounce on Thursday, down 3.66% on the day and 54.7% below its 28 January high; Friday’s close was not yet recorded.
- The Federal Reserve held its rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, but two officials voted for an immediate hike, and Polymarket gives 70% to another hike this year.
- A tech-led stock rout forced investors to sell bullion for cash: the S&P 500 fell 1.82%, its worst day since June, as chipmaker Intel lost almost 30%.
- The dollar did not explain the fall: the dollar index slipped 0.07% and the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.93%, so forced selling is the better reading.
- For Latin America: Mexico, the world’s top silver producer, and Peru earn less per ounce if prices stay near these levels.
Today’s Focus
Gold closed Friday at US$3,928 an ounce, down 2.00% and its lowest settlement in at least 12 months. It was the third losing session in a row, and the metal now sits 28.8% below its record close of US$5,513 on 28 January.
The immediate cause was a scramble for cash, not a loss of faith in gold. A stock-market rout led by Intel, the chipmaker, which fell almost 30%, pulled the S&P 500 down 1.82% and left investors who had borrowed to buy selling whatever was easiest to sell.
Behind that sits the Federal Reserve, which held its rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday while two officials voted for an immediate increase. Polymarket, a prediction market, gives 70% to at least one more hike this year, and a higher rate makes a metal that pays no interest less attractive to hold.
Silver’s last settled close was US$51.94 an ounce on Thursday, down 3.66% on the day and 54.7% below its 28 January high of US$114.59. Its Friday close had not been recorded when we closed this edition, so every silver price here is Thursday’s.
What matters today. A close back above US$4,000 would be the first sign that the forced selling is ending, and the next dated tests are the US election on Tuesday 3 November and the Fed meeting on 8 and 9 December.
01 The Session in One Read
Gold fell for a third straight session on Friday and closed at US$3,928 an ounce, its lowest close in at least 12 months. The drop of 2.00% came on a day when almost everything with a price fell at once.
That is the unusual part of the story. Gold is sold to savers as insurance against a falling stock market, yet on Friday it fell alongside the S&P 500, which lost 1.82%, and the Nasdaq, which lost 2.86%.
For US readers the lesson is that insurance can be cashed in at the worst moment. When investors face demands for more collateral, they sell the assets that carry the biggest recent profits, and gold and silver had both been very good bets earlier in the year.
The best-supported reading ranks three causes: forced selling during the equity rout, a Federal Reserve that has not ruled out a December hike, and strong US data that keeps rates high. The dollar index fell 0.07% and the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.93%, so the usual dollar-and-yields explanation covers only part of the move.
The variable to watch is the stock market, because the pressure to sell for cash fades when equities stop falling. The VIX fear gauge closed at 19.42 after jumping 12.91%, and a fall back toward calm would be the cleanest signal that the selling is over.
02 The Board
The board shows gold at US$3,928 an ounce, down 2.00%, and silver at US$51.94 an ounce, down 3.66% on Thursday. Silver is the more violent mover, which is normal because it is a smaller market with more borrowed-money speculators and more industrial buyers.
Read the two together and the picture is clear. A fall of 15.06% for silver over the 20 sessions to Thursday compares with 5.07% for gold over the same stretch, so the weaker metal is leading the way down.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | US$3,928/oz | -2.00% |
| Silver | US$51.94/oz | -3.66% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-30. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy. Last settled close of Silver: 2026-10-29.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 167,921.80 | -0.75% | +19.56% | 169,186.42 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| IPSA | 10,253.96 | -2.76% | — | 10,545.26 | 10,722 | 10,633 | — |
| IPC MEX | 69,705.03 | -0.12% | +12.74% | 69,787.41 | 70,008 | 69,383 | 49,372,306 |
| MERVAL | 92,079 | -2.59% | +12.65% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,490.92 | +0.04% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +7.53% | -4.87% | 5.54 | 6.04 | 5.92 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.69 | +0.62% | +1.45% | 18.57 | 18.69 | 18.54 | — |
| USD/CLP | 983.47 | -0.57% | +5.64% | 989.13 | 991.87 | 979.07 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,149 | +3.06% | -18.02% | 3,056 | 3,173 | 3,111 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.45 | +0.17% | +3.85% | 3.44 | 3.45 | 3.44 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,537 | -0.28% | +3.77% | 1,541 | 1,541 | 1,537 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.21 | +3.57% | +2.29% | 38.83 | 40.21 | 40.08 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,803 | +3.78% | -16.54% | 5,592 | 5,803 | 5,735 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.97 | +4.93% | +77.92% | 11.41 | 11.97 | 11.82 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.54 | +1.83% | -4.34% | 59.45 | 61.14 | 59.85 | — |
| USD/CRC | 451.24 | +2.13% | -7.80% | 441.83 | 451.40 | 450.04 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +3.23% | +2.18% | 7.40 | 7.64 | 7.64 | — |
03 Why It Moved
The first and heaviest cause is forced selling. Intel, the chipmaker, fell almost 30% on Friday and the Nasdaq lost 2.86%, and investors who borrowed against their portfolios had to raise cash by selling liquid assets, including bullion.
The second cause is the Federal Reserve. It held its rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday 28 October, two officials voted for an immediate quarter-point increase, and Polymarket put the chance of another hike this year at 70.0% (US$1.24 million traded, 30 October, 7:48 pm ET).
The third cause is data: personal consumption expenditures prices, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.6% in the year to September, and the economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter. Both readings came out on Thursday 29 October, and together they keep the worry about stubborn inflation alive.
Friday’s calendar added to the rate story, because the Employment Cost Index, the government’s gauge of what employers pay for labor, rose 0.8% in the third quarter, with wages up 0.7% and benefits up 0.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The Chicago PMI factory survey and the weekly count of US oil rigs were also due, but we had no confirmed readings when we closed.
One signal conflicts with the story: the dollar index slipped 0.07% and the 10-year yield, at 4.93%, was down 7 basis points over five sessions, moves that would normally lift gold, so rate expectations alone cannot explain Friday. Our confidence in forced selling as the lead cause is medium: it fits the stock rout and the sharp rise in the fear gauge, but we cannot see the margin calls themselves.
04 The Trend Behind It
This is a continuation, not a new phase. Over 20 sessions the metal has lost 5.07%, and over 60 sessions 9.5%, while making lower highs since its record of US$5,513 on 28 January.
The fall in the white metal has been steeper. As of Thursday it was 15.06% lower over 20 sessions and 54.7% below its high of US$114.59 on 28 January, yet only 4.1% above its low of US$49.90 on 17 November 2025.
Our own price history since 2007 gives a base rate, not a forecast. After earlier 20-session falls as large as gold’s, the metal was higher 20 sessions later in 32 of 59 cases (54%), with a median gain of 1.2% and a worst case of a 12.9% further fall.
For silver the record is more encouraging but still not a promise. After earlier falls as large as silver’s, it was higher 20 sessions later in 14 of 19 cases (74%), with a median gain of 5.1%, a worst case of a 19.9% further fall and a best case of a 22.5% gain.
05 What It Means for Latin America
Mexico is the world’s largest silver-producing country and Peru is a major producer of both gold and silver. Because miners sell in dollars, a silver price that is 15.06% lower than 20 sessions ago cuts revenue per ounce by the same share before any change in costs.
That reaches governments as well as companies. Lower prices mean thinner mining royalties and income-tax receipts in Lima and Mexico City, and less income for the many small mines that supply gold to local refiners.
For US investors the channel is the funds and the miners’ New York shares. The main gold fund, GLD, fell by more than the metal itself on Friday, which shows how quickly paper holders sell when they need cash.
06 The Names to Watch
The first name is the Federal Reserve, whose next meeting on 8 and 9 December decides whether the hike that Polymarket prices at 70% actually arrives. The second is the VIX, the Chicago options gauge of stock-market fear, which closed at 19.42 on Friday.
The metals themselves carry the key levels. Gold needs to reclaim US$4,000, a level it held as recently as Thursday’s close of US$4,008, while silver has to defend US$50, close to its November 2025 low.
07 What Would End It
The selling should end when stocks stop falling and the Fed stops sounding like it wants to hike. The nearest round-number levels are US$3,800 below and US$4,000 above, the level gold still held at Thursday’s close of US$4,008.
The dated tests come quickly. The US midterm elections are on Tuesday 3 November, the October jobs report is due on Friday 6 November, and the Fed meets on 8 and 9 December.
History is a calmer guide than any single forecast: after earlier falls this size gold was higher 20 sessions later in 54% of cases and silver in 74%. Those are base rates from our own price history since 2007, not a call that a low is in.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market, traders put the chance of at least one more Federal Reserve rate increase in 2026 at 70.0%. About US$1.24 million has been traded on this market, as of 30 October 2026, 7:48 pm ET.
Prices on prediction markets are bets, not polls or forecasts by officials. They move within minutes of every inflation report and Fed comment.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
08 What to watch
- US midterm elections, Tuesday 3 November: Voters choose Congress, and traders will judge whether the result changes the budget and rate outlook, which could swing gold either way.
- US jobs report, Friday 6 November: Strong hiring would add to hike bets and pressure gold, while a weak number could cool the case for a December increase.
- Federal Reserve, 8 and 9 December: The meeting decides whether the hike priced by Polymarket at 70% happens, and it is the largest single risk for precious metals this year.
- Silver at US$50, gold at US$4,000: A close below US$50 for silver would extend the slide, while a close above US$4,000 for gold would be the first sign of a bottom.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold fall on Friday?
Investors sold gold to raise cash during a tech-led stock rout, and hopes of Fed rate cuts faded as a December hike became more likely. Gold pays no interest, so higher rates make it less attractive.
Is gold still a safe haven?
Over long periods it has protected savers, but on Friday it fell with stocks because forced sellers dump liquid assets first. In the 2008 crisis gold also fell early before it recovered.
How far has silver fallen this year?
A last settled close of US$51.94 on Thursday left silver 54.7% below its 28 January high of US$114.59. The metal is only 4.1% above its 17 November 2025 low of US$49.90.
What could stop the slide?
A calmer stock market and a Fed that signals no December hike would remove the two main pressures. The next tests are the US election on 3 November and the Fed meeting on 8 and 9 December.
Market data: The Rio Times
Primary sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statements (28 October); Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Cost Index (30 October); Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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