Trump Predicts Cuba Deal Without Military Force as Havana Rebukes US at UN
CUBA · US RELATIONS
Key Facts
- —The country A one-party communist state of under 10 million people, on an island the size of Tennessee, 90 miles from Florida. Its economy shrank 15 percent in 2020–2025, independent estimates say.
- —Why it matters The US embargo on Cuba is more than 60 years old. Since January a US oil blockade has kept most fuel from reaching the island, and its power grid keeps failing.
- —Why now On Tuesday 22 September Trump told the UN General Assembly that Cuba was “an absolutely failed state.” Cuba’s delegation walked out of the hall.
- —What happened On Saturday 26 September Trump told reporters at the White House: “I would say that Cuba and us will make a deal. I don’t think we’ll need the military.”
- —Who is involved Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez answered at the UN the same day. China’s Vice President Han Zheng urged the US, without naming it, to lift the blockade.
- —What it means for you Nothing has changed yet. Fuel shortages, blackouts and US financial and travel restrictions still apply to anyone living in, visiting or trading with Cuba.
- —Still open What a deal would contain, whether formal talks are under way, and what the US military preparations reported this week are for.
President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he expects a Cuba deal, and doubts the US military will be needed.
“I would say that Cuba and us will make a deal,” he told reporters at the White House before leaving for Tennessee.
Later that day Cuba’s foreign minister, Bruno Rodríguez, took the podium at the UN General Assembly in New York. He called the American oil blockade an “act of collective punishment” designed to push the island into a humanitarian crisis.
What Trump said, and why he said it
The remark came in answer to a question. A reporter asked about reports that US military reserve units had been activated in connection with Cuba.
“I don’t think we’ll need the military,” Trump replied. “Cuba is failing very badly.”
“We want to help Cuba. We want to open Cuba up to our people,” he went on.
He gave no terms, no timetable and no names of negotiators. The White House did not say what a Cuba deal would require of Havana.
The tone was softer than four days earlier. At the UN on Tuesday, Trump said his government was “seeking a fundamental change in the situation in Cuba.”
He called the island “an absolutely failed state” and said “freedom will be coming.”
Cuba’s diplomats walked out during that speech. The same week CBS News reported that the US military was laying groundwork for possible action around the island.
Havana’s answer at the UN
Rodríguez did not refer to Trump’s comments directly. He spent most of his speech on the fuel squeeze, which he said was meant to “provoke in Cuba a humanitarian crisis.”
He also left the door open to a Cuba deal on Havana’s terms. “We have always been and will always be prepared for dialogue with the government of the United States,” he said.
Any talks, he added, must rest on “sovereign equality” and take place “without preconditions.”
He added that Cuba was open to business with American companies, “just as we are with any other country.” On the prospect of US military action, he warned of vast destruction: “Let’s hope that this never happens.”
An Indian broadcaster, Times Now, reported that US diplomats left the hall as Rodríguez began. Other outlets that covered the speech did not report a walkout, and it is not confirmed.
China and Russia take Cuba’s side
Earlier on Saturday, China’s Vice President Han Zheng used his own UN speech to defend Cuba. He did not name the United States.
“China urges the relevant country to immediately stop using threat of force against Cuba,” Han said. It should also “immediately and completely lift the blockade and sanctions,” he added.
The words came days after Trump hosted Chinese leader Xi Jinping at a White House state dinner.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov followed hours later. He called on Washington to lift its “siege” and to remove Cuba from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.
Brazil, Mexico and Pakistan have also called for the embargo and the oil blockade to end. Every year since 1992 the General Assembly has voted by a wide margin for a resolution urging the embargo’s end.
An island running on empty
The oil blockade in force since January has largely stopped fuel from reaching Cuba. The national grid has suffered eight total collapses this year, according to the Spanish news agency EFE.
The latest total failure, earlier in September, left millions without power. The breakdown is detailed in Cuba Grid Failure: Line Trips, Not Gunfire, Caused 8th Blackout of 2026.
The currency tells the same story. On the informal market the US dollar fetched a record 735 Cuban pesos in late September, says the independent outlet elTOque.
The Central Bank of Cuba’s own floating rate stood at 681. Fixed official rates of 24 pesos per dollar for state companies and 120 for individuals still apply.
Havana announced 176 economic reforms in June. Officials concede the destination is unclear, as reported in Cuba Admits It Does Not Know Where Its Market Reforms Will Lead.
Pressure and talk at the same time
Washington has been pressing and talking in parallel. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week the US was open to talks on a political transition in Cuba.
“You don’t reverse 60-something years of mismanagement, corruption, and incompetence in six months,” Rubio said. He added that Cuba had “a golden opportunity” if it was open to US help.
The context is sharp. In January the US used military force to remove Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, long Havana’s closest ally and oil supplier.
The Associated Press has reported that the State Department is weighing strict new controls on Cuban diplomats. Those officials are due back in New York in October for the annual embargo vote.
What comes next
The next fixed date is the General Assembly’s embargo vote in October. Cuba has won it every year, and the result binds no one.
Trump’s words do not mean a Cuba deal exists or that talks have a timetable. Neither government has published terms, and the stated US goal remains a change in how Cuba is governed.
Nor does “I don’t think we’ll need the military” rule out force. It is a forecast by the president, not a policy decision, and the reported military preparations have not been withdrawn.
For people on the island, nothing changes until fuel starts to arrive. That depends on the oil blockade, which neither side mentioned lifting on Saturday.
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly did Trump say about Cuba?
On 26 September he told reporters at the White House: “I would say that Cuba and us will make a deal. I don’t think we’ll need the military.”
Is there a Cuba deal yet?
No agreement has been announced. Trump gave no terms or timetable, and Cuba says it is ready for dialogue only on equal terms and without preconditions.
What is the oil blockade?
A US pressure campaign in force since January 2026 that has largely stopped fuel shipments to Cuba. It comes on top of the trade embargo, which has lasted more than 60 years.
Did the US delegation walk out of Cuba’s UN speech?
India’s Times Now reported it, but other coverage did not, so it is unconfirmed. The confirmed walkout that week was Cuba’s, during Trump’s speech on 22 September.
Sources: Reuters (26 September 2026, Trump remarks and Han Zheng speech); Al Jazeera; USA Today; NBC 6 South Florida; WLRN; Times Now; Associated Press; elTOque and Diario Las Américas (exchange rates, late September 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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