Peru Poll: Former Mayor López Aliaga Leads Race to Run Lima by 12 Points
PERU · LIMA ELECTION
Key Facts
- —The country Peru elects regional governors and mayors on Sunday 4 October. More than 26 million people are registered to vote, for terms running from 2027 to 2030.
- —Why it matters Lima is Peru’s capital and by far its largest city. Its mayor runs local transport, streets and municipal services.
- —What happened A Datum mock ballot taken on 23–25 September gives Rafael López Aliaga 29.6 percent of valid votes. Carlos Bruce has 17.2 percent, a gap of 12.4 points.
- —Why now It is the last poll that may be published. A ban on publishing voting surveys took effect on Monday 28 September.
- —What it means for you Rallies stop on Friday 2 October and alcohol sales from Saturday morning to Monday morning. Voters whose identity card has expired may still vote.
- —Still open Whether López Aliaga, a former mayor running as first councillor, can legally take the mayor’s office if his list wins.
Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral race by 12.4 points with a week to go. That is the finding of a Datum Internacional mock ballot for El Comercio, taken on 23–25 September.
López Aliaga, of the conservative Renovación Popular party, ran Lima from 2023 to 2025 and stood for president this year. His nearest rival is Carlos Bruce, the mayor of the Surco district, for Somos Perú.
What the polls show
Datum’s mock ballot gives López Aliaga 29.6 percent of valid votes and Bruce 17.2 percent. Francis Allison of Avanza País is third on 13 percent, El Comercio reported.
An Ipsos mock ballot taken on 24–25 September points the same way, La República reported. It has López Aliaga on 30 percent, Bruce on 15.6 and Allison on 15.1.
Datum’s chief executive, Urpi Torrado, cautioned in El Comercio that the week-on-week change sits within the margin of error. The gap was 10.2 points a week earlier, but she said no trend can be claimed.
An unusual candidacy
López Aliaga is not formally the mayoral candidate. He heads his party’s list as first councillor, after the original candidate, Luis Rubio, withdrew, El Comercio reported.
Under Peru’s municipal law, the first councillor steps in when the mayor is absent. Infobae reported that he would take the post if his list wins, which critics call a disguised re-election.
The National Elections Jury (JNE), Peru’s electoral court, allowed his registration in July. Bruce complained on 21 September that the court had still not said who could actually take office.
The final week
Campaign restrictions covering the Lima mayoral race and every other contest began on Monday, RPP reported. Publishing voting surveys now carries fines of S/55,000 to S/550,000 (about US$16,000 to US$162,000).
The civil registry, Reniec, says about 600,000 identity cards across Peru are still uncollected, Canal N and Infobae reported. Its offices open longer hours this week and on election day itself.
What Is Not Yet Known
The JNE has not said whether it would credential López Aliaga as mayor. The electoral law expert José Tello told Exitosa there is no legal obstacle, Infobae reported.
Blank and spoiled ballots make up 12.7 percent of votes cast in Datum’s survey. Torrado said low interest in the race could make the last week decisive.
For background, see our Peru Explained: The Country, Its Politics, Its Economy and What to Watch and OAS Observers Cleared to Watch Peru’s 4 October Local Elections.
Sources: El Comercio, 27 September 2026; La República, 27 September; Infobae, 27 September; Infobae, 15 September; RPP, 27 September; Canal N, 27 September; Infobae, 27 September.
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