Energy: Argentina
Key Facts
—Price slide. Brent oil fell about 25%, from US$120.15 on 30 October to US$90.16 on 10 November.
—Export stake. Fuel and energy made up about 18% of Argentina’s US$10.036 billion in September exports.
—Bond stress. Country risk, Argentina’s extra bond yield, closed at 939 basis points on 6 November.
—Next data. INDEC, Argentina’s statistics institute, publishes its next trade report on Thursday 19 November 2026.
—Power Index. Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 60.2 points (November 2026 edition).
Oil has lost about a quarter of its price in under two weeks. That puts at risk the dollars that the Vaca Muerta shale basin earns for Argentina.
Luis Caputo, Argentina’s economy minister, now faces a sharp fall in the price of a key export. Brent, the global oil price benchmark, fell from US$120.15 a barrel on 30 October to US$90.16 on 10 November, a drop of about 25% or roughly US$30 per barrel, according to the US Energy Information Administration, the US government’s energy statistics agency.
Vaca Muerta is Argentina’s shale oil and gas basin, and Argentina’s energy exports are rising fast. For US readers the link is direct, because Argentine dollar bonds and shares of YPF, Argentina’s state-controlled oil company listed in New York as American depositary receipts (ADRs), are both exposed to this story.
In Plain English
—Vaca Muerta. It is Argentina’s shale oil and gas basin. Shale is rock that gives up oil and gas through horizontal drilling.
—Country risk. It is the extra yield Argentine dollar bonds pay over US Treasuries. A wider gap means investors see more danger and demand more.
—Basis point. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. So 939 basis points equals 9.39 percentage points.
What Moved Oil
Brent stood at US$71.32 a barrel on 27 February and reached US$138.21 on 7 April, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Market reports link the fall since 30 October to hopes of an end to the US-Iran conflict, the confrontation that pushed oil up earlier this year, but we found no official statement that ties the two together.
Brent dropped 18.6% in the first week, to US$97.83 on 6 November, and touched US$90.16 on 10 November. It edged back up to US$92.14 on 11 November.
How Much Vaca Muerta Is Worth
INDEC, Argentina’s national statistics institute, reported on 19 October that September exports reached US$10.036 billion, up 23.5% from a year earlier. Imports were US$7.060 billion, which left a surplus of US$2.976 billion.
That was the 34th monthly trade surplus in a row. The January–September surplus reached US$21.198 billion, against US$6.046 billion a year earlier.
Fuel and energy exports were the fastest-growing category, at US$1.781 billion in September, up 89.1% or US$840 million year on year. They made up about 18% of all exports.
INDEC puts the rise in the value of these exports down to higher prices (+33.4%) and higher quantities (+39.8%). Our reading is that if prices fall, the value of these exports falls even if volumes keep rising.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
—
171,324.31
-0.43%
71,811.20
-0.27%
10,625.27
+0.69%
2,848,945
—
2,452.93
-1.35%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -10.97% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,545 | -0.02% | +9.69% | 1,545 | 1,545 | 1,545 | — |
| YPF | 6,250 | +0.56% | +11.50% | 6,215 | 6,350 | 5,935 | 2,646,563 |
| GGAL | 4,870 | -2.16% | -40.83% | 4,978 | 5,135 | 4,770 | 2,701,174 |
| PAMPA | 4,233 | -0.06% | -20.44% | 4,235 | 4,320 | 4,100 | 1,251,850 |
| TXAR | 675.00 | -1.17% | -20.86% | 683.00 | 691.50 | 661.50 | 1,949,350 |
| ALUAR | 750.00 | -2.09% | -30.66% | 766.00 | 770.00 | 745.00 | 474,169 |
| TGS | 7,080 | +0.14% | -21.62% | 7,070 | 7,320 | 6,840 | 393,385 |
| CEPU | 1,720 | +1.59% | -22.36% | 1,693 | 1,798 | 1,611 | 1,071,546 |
| MIRGOR | 1,685 | -5.60% | -92.58% | 1,785 | 1,795 | 1,680 | 23,889 |
| COME | 32.15 | -0.16% | -57.14% | 32.20 | 33.50 | 31.10 | 3,936,050 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 2,873 | -2.05% | -17.61% | 2,933 | 2,990 | 2,853 | 135,494 |
| BYMA | 199.25 | +0.89% | -31.44% | 197.50 | 201.75 | 190.00 | 14,253,881 |
| TELECOM ARG | 3,470 | -1.14% | -6.42% | 3,510 | 3,625 | 3,380 | 172,177 |
| GLOBANT | 45.75 | -1.27% | -27.20% | 46.34 | 46.66 | 45.38 | 709,382 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,475 | -2.44% | -27.37% | 1,512 | 1,500 | 1,472 | 515,334 |
Bond Markets Feel the Pressure
Argentina’s country risk closed at 939 basis points on 6 November, according to Rava Bursátil, an Argentine market-data service, and eased to the 850s by 10 November. It moves every day, so readers should check the live figure.
What It Means for Financing
Country risk is the yardstick investors use to price new Argentine dollar debt. Our reading is that wider country risk raises that price, while lower oil prices shrink the export dollars that support repayment.
We found no official estimate of Argentina’s dollar financing needs after the oil fall. We therefore print no figure for them.
What It Means for You
US investors holding Argentine dollar bonds or YPF ADRs are exposed to both oil prices and country risk. Further moves depend on whether oil stays near US$90 and on how Argentina funds itself.
A lower oil price helps US drivers at the pump. For Argentina, the same fall cuts into the dollar income it needs.
What to Watch
INDEC publishes its next trade report on Thursday 19 November 2026. It is the next official data on fuel and energy exports.
Argentina’s Economy Ministry, which Luis Caputo runs, has not published a gap estimate that we found. Any official figure for the country’s financing needs would be the next checkpoint.
What Is Not Known
We found no estimate of how many dollars Vaca Muerta would lose from the oil fall. The September trade data predate the slide, so they cannot show its effect.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil prices fall?
Brent fell about 25% between 30 October and 10 November, from US$120.15 to US$90.16 a barrel. Market reports link the move to hopes of an end to the US-Iran conflict.
How important is oil to Argentina’s exports?
Fuel and energy exports were US$1.781 billion in September 2026, about 18% of the total. They grew 89.1% year on year, the fastest of any category, according to INDEC.
How many dollars could Argentina lose?
We found no estimate. Because prices matter, a lower oil price cuts the value of these exports even if volumes rise.
Why does country risk matter for Argentina?
Country risk is the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds. It closed at 939 basis points on 6 November, which raises the cost of new borrowing.
Connected Coverage
- Vaca Muerta exports push Argentina toward a record year
- Argentina’s financing plan for Vaca Muerta gas exports
- More Argentina news
Sources: INDEC foreign trade report, September 2026; US Energy Information Administration, Europe Brent spot price; Rava Bursátil (country risk).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error