MEXICO · TRADE AND MIGRATION
On Thursday 12 November 2026, President Donald Trump threatened to double tariffs on Mexico if it does not stop migrant caravans marching north. The warning arrives while Washington already charges a 10% duty on Mexican goods outside the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact (USMCA) and while a Honduran caravan crosses southern Mexico.
Key Facts
- Threat: Trump says tariffs on Mexico will be doubled immediately if caravans are not stopped.
- Caravan: About 1,500 mostly Central American migrants left Tapachula, southern Mexico, on Tuesday 10 November; counts vary.
- Tariffs now: A 10% duty applies to Mexican goods outside the USMCA, the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact.
- Trade at stake: US goods imports from Mexico reached US$534.3 billion in 2025.
- Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 70.8 points (November 2026 edition).
What Trump Said
Trump wrote on Truth Social, his own platform, that large migrant caravans had started a march through Mexico. He said Mexico must stop them now.
He wrote that if Mexico does not, tariffs on Mexico will be doubled immediately. He said the US Border Patrol, the federal border police, and ICE (US Immigration and Customs Enforcement) had been notified, and said there would be no leniency.
The post sets no deadline and names no tariff, no rate and no legal tool. No decree or order has been issued so far.
What Mexico Says
President Claudia Sheinbaum answered at her morning press conference on Thursday 12 November. She said no migrant caravan has reached the northern border since Trump took office.
She said two caravans exist now. One formed in Arriaga, in Chiapas state, with about 500 to 600 people and now has fewer than 100, while the second came from Honduras.
She said Mexico’s immigration institute (INM) and the National Guard, Mexico’s federal security force, accompany migrants rather than repress them. Most migrants choose to return home with government help once told entry to the United States is very difficult.
Sheinbaum said US migration policy has not changed since the US elections. No formal reply to the tariff threat from the foreign affairs or economy ministries had been announced at the time of writing.
According to a Chiapas state government source, about 1,500 people, mostly Central Americans, left Tapachula, near the Guatemala border, on Tuesday 10 November. Other reports say about 2,000, and it is not clear whether this is the Honduran caravan Sheinbaum mentioned.
Our earlier report on US removals of migrants of four nationalities to Mexico gives background. It describes how the United States sends non-Mexican migrants to Mexico.
Which Tariffs Apply Today
Since Friday 24 July 2026, Mexican products pay an extra 10% tariff under Section 301, a US trade law against alleged unfair practices. The US Trade Representative’s office (USTR), the White House trade office, set it over a failure to effectively enforce a ban on forced-labour imports.
The duty excludes goods entered duty-free under the USMCA, called T-MEC in Mexico, and articles already under Section 232. That national-security tariff law covers steel, aluminium and autos, which carry separate duties.
Other economies face 10% or 12.5%, depending on their record. Doubling Mexico’s 10% would mean 20%, but that is our arithmetic, because Trump did not say which tariff he means.
The threat comes while the two countries negotiate a trade deal, a track covered in our report on the Mexico tariff talks. No agreement had been announced at the time of writing.
On Wednesday 1 July 2026, USTR said “the USMCA is not renewed”, yet the pact “remains in force pending resolution of these issues”. USTR added that it would meet Mexico the week of 20 July for a third round of bilateral talks.
Why It Matters for US Readers
For US importers the cost lands at the port, because they pay any tariff on entry before goods reach shelves. They should watch the Federal Register, the US government’s daily journal of rules, and note that USMCA-qualifying goods are exempt from the 10% duty, so origin paperwork matters.
US goods imports from Mexico reached US$534.3 billion in 2025, against US$337.3 billion of exports, according to the US Census Bureau. Mexico’s real GDP grew only 0.5% in 2025, says the International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, which leaves less cushion for a tariff rise.
For investors, the peso moved little at first. The dollar traded at about 18.6 pesos on Thursday, close to the previous day.
What to Watch Next
The first checkpoint is any White House or USTR decree, because a post has no legal force until a notice names a tariff and a rate. Until then, current duties stay in force.
The second is the state of the US-Mexico trade talks, where no agreement had been announced. Sheinbaum’s next morning press conference, a daily event, is the first place she may add detail on any formal reply.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether or when a tariff would be imposed, which tariff would be doubled, or under which legal tool. Trump’s post does not say.
Mexico’s formal answer is also unknown, as is the true size of the caravan. Nobody can yet say whether any group will reach the US border, though Sheinbaum says none has since Trump took office.
More: Read more Mexico news in English. The Rio Times covers it every day.
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly did Trump threaten?
He posted on Truth Social that tariffs on Mexico will be doubled immediately if Mexico does not stop migrant caravans. The post names no date, rate or legal tool, and no decree has been issued.
What tariffs does the US charge Mexico now?
A 10% Section 301 duty has applied since 24 July 2026 to Mexican goods outside the USMCA. Goods already under Section 232 duties, such as steel and autos, are excluded and pay their own rates.
How big is the caravan?
About 1,500 people left Tapachula on 10 November, according to a Chiapas state government source. Other reports say about 2,000, and no single official count exists.
What does Mexico say?
Sheinbaum said no caravan has reached the northern border since Trump took office, and the Arriaga group has fewer than 100 people. No formal reply from the foreign affairs or economy ministries had been announced at the time of writing.
Sources: Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), Section 301 forced-labor action, notice dated Thursday 23 July 2026; USTR statement on the USMCA joint review, Wednesday 1 July 2026; US Census Bureau, trade in goods with Mexico, 2025; IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026; President Trump’s post on Truth Social, Thursday 12 November 2026; President Sheinbaum’s morning press conference, Thursday 12 November 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error