Vaca Muerta Exports Push Argentina Toward a Record Year
ARGENTINA · ENERGY
Key Facts
—What happened: Argentina is heading for record exports of US$103.2 billion in 2026, the exporters’ chamber projects.
—How big: January to July sales hit US$58.365 billion, up 22.9 percent and the best start to a year on record.
—The real story: Crude oil was Argentina’s top export in the last two months, above corn and soy for the first time.
—The catch: Ten products still generate 44 percent of all exports, so the record rests on a narrow base.
—Where it shifts: Neuquén, San Juan and Santa Cruz are gaining weight, carried by shale, metals and lithium.
—What comes next: Italy’s ENI and partners move the Argentina LNG project toward a November investment decision.
Argentina’s exporters’ chamber now projects a record US$103.2 billion of sales abroad in 2026, with Vaca Muerta exports of crude oil displacing corn and soy at the top of the table.
A record year, projected and half-delivered
The projection comes from CERA, the Argentine exporters’ chamber, in its August trade monitor. It puts 2026 exports at US$103.2 billion, well past the US$88.446 billion record of 2022.
The first seven months already back the call. Exports reached US$58.365 billion between January and July, up 22.9 percent on the same period of 2025.
July alone brought in US$8.854 billion, the fourth-highest monthly figure in Argentine history. The trade surplus for the seven months reached US$16.080 billion, up 338 percent year on year.
Imports, notably, fell 3.5 percent to US$42.286 billion over the period. The surplus is being earned abroad, not just saved at home.
Oil takes the top spot
The symbolic shift is at the top of the table. Crude oil exports reached US$5.722 billion in the first seven months, up 59 percent, driven mainly by higher volumes.
In each of the last two months, crude was Argentina’s single biggest export product. It finished above corn and soy, the crops that have defined the country’s trade for a century.
Fuels and energy, the category riding on Vaca Muerta exports, reached US$9.151 billion, up 50 percent. Vaca Muerta, the shale formation in Neuquén province, now produces about 70 percent of national oil output.
The caution sits in the concentration. The ten fastest-growing products supplied 44 percent of everything Argentina sold abroad, or US$25.591 billion.
The map of exports is moving south and west
The consultancy Abeceb, quoted in the chamber’s report, reads the record as a geographic reordering. Neuquén, San Juan and Santa Cruz are gaining weight in foreign trade.
Neuquén rides Vaca Muerta exports, San Juan and the Andean provinces ride metals and lithium. Gold brought in US$3.211 billion, up 44 percent, and lithium carbonate US$1.169 billion, up 187 percent.
The mining chamber expects the sector to reach US$9 billion in exports this year. That would be 50 percent above 2025.
Agro-industry still pays the biggest bill. Farm-based manufactures exported US$18.911 billion in seven months, up 13 percent, helped by a record harvest.
Italy’s door into Vaca Muerta exports
The European angle runs through Rome. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s alliance with President Javier Milei has warmed the pipeline for Italian capital, and the vehicle is already chosen.
Italy’s ENI is a partner with state-controlled YPF and the Emirates’ XRG in Argentina LNG, the flagship liquefied-gas export project. The consortium presented it under the RIGI investment regime in June.
Studies cited by industry media put Argentine LNG projects at close to US$30 billion of investment toward 2030. Export capacity could reach 28 million tonnes a year by the end of the decade.
Longer term, the central bank projects total goods exports of US$143.8 billion by 2030. Its projected goods surplus for that year is US$41.8 billion.
Why it matters beyond the pampas
Every export dollar lands in a central bank that is rebuilding reserves. The trade surplus is the raw material of the government’s whole financial programme.
The main buyers remain Brazil, the United States and China, in that order. Sales to the European Union have grown almost 20 percent this year on the back of the Mercosur agreement.
For investors, Vaca Muerta exports are no longer a promise but a line item. The open question is whether pipelines, LNG ships and rigs can be built fast enough to keep Vaca Muerta exports growing.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much will Argentina export in 2026?
The exporters’ chamber CERA projects US$103.2 billion, a record. Sales from January to July reached US$58.365 billion, up 22.9 percent on the same months of 2025.
What is Argentina’s biggest export now?
Crude oil. It earned US$5.722 billion in the first seven months, up 59 percent, and led the monthly ranking in the last two months, above corn and soy.
What role does Vaca Muerta play?
The shale formation produces about 70 percent of Argentina’s oil and anchors the energy surge. Fuels and energy exports grew 50 percent to US$9.151 billion in seven months.
How are Italian companies involved?
Italy’s ENI partners with YPF and XRG in Argentina LNG, presented under the RIGI regime in June. Industry studies see close to US$30 billion of LNG investment toward 2030.
How big is Argentina’s trade surplus?
The surplus reached US$16.080 billion from January to July 2026, up 338 percent year on year. July’s surplus alone was US$2.115 billion.
Connected Coverage
The production milestone behind this is in Vaca Muerta reaching 70 percent of national oil output, the logistics bet in Neuquén’s 750-kilometre road plan toward Chile and the politics in Meloni’s role in the Mercosur-EU deal. More on our Argentina hub.
Sources: CERA Monitor Comex, reported by Infobae (31 August 2026); Abeceb; CAEM; Shale24 on the Argentina LNG RIGI filing (May 2026); BCRA export projections via La Nación (October 2025).
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