ARGENTINA · MARKETS
Argentina’s peso has held steady at about 1,545 per US$1, but a new study says investors are buying protection against a fall before the 2027 presidential election. The study, by the consultancy Fernando Marull y Asociados (FMyA) and reported this week, argues that this protection helps explain why the peso looks calm.
FMyA estimates that Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) has bought about US$16 billion in 2026 while the state sold US$4 billion of dollar futures and US$10 billion of dollar-linked bonds. On FMyA’s numbers, net purchases for Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s team are about US$2 billion, not US$16 billion.
Key Facts
- Net buying Study estimate: central bank bought about US$16 billion in 2026; the state sold US$14 billion in cover.
- The cover About US$4 billion in dollar futures and US$10 billion in dollar-linked bonds (peso bonds tracking the dollar).
- Stress signal Country risk, a gauge of bond stress, is above 850 basis points, more than double its July level.
- Next data Argentina’s statistics agency INDEC publishes October inflation on Thursday 12 November.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a prediction market, gives President Javier Milei a 43.5% chance of winning the 2027 election (11 November, 1:16 a.m. ET).
- Power Index Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 60.2 points (November 2026 edition).
How Cover Keeps the Peso Calm
When a company or investor fears a weaker peso, it can buy dollars or buy an instrument that pays out if the peso falls. Dollar futures are contracts to buy dollars at a fixed price later, and dollar-linked bonds are peso bonds whose value follows the exchange rate.
FMyA’s calculation is that the state sold roughly US$4 billion of futures and US$10 billion of dollar-linked bonds this year. That is almost US$9 of cover for every US$10 of dollars the bank bought, leaving a net gain of only about US$2 billion.
FMyA’s point is that demand for dollars did not disappear but moved away from the spot market, where dollars are bought directly. FMyA says the dollar’s stability is tied to investors being able to find protection elsewhere.
Why It Matters Before the 2027 Vote
FMyA says the second half of 2026 was harder than the first, with the central bank buying less and more cover sold. The first half benefited from the main grain harvest, when farm exporters sell large amounts of dollars.
FMyA says that since August some hedging has moved into short dollar bonds. Examples are short-dated Bopreal and Bonar dollar bonds, issued by the central bank and the government.
Country risk is the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds over US Treasuries. It has climbed to roughly 860 to 880 basis points (0.01 percentage points each) this week, after a high of 939 on 6 November, from about 400 in July.
For US holders of Argentine bonds and ADRs, shares of Argentine firms listed in the US, that gap is one sign that confidence has weakened. FMyA’s reading is that the cover described above helps keep the peso quiet.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money, President Javier Milei is at 43.5% to win the 2027 election. Axel Kicillof, governor of Buenos Aires province, is at 33.5% and former economy minister Sergio Massa at 14.4%, with about US$1.49 million traded (read at 1:16 a.m. ET on 11 November).
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
A steady official rate does not mean low risk: FMyA says demand for dollar cover has not gone away. That matters to anyone holding pesos, Argentine bonds or planning a trip with a budget in dollars.
Two things to watch: INDEC’s October inflation release on Thursday 12 November and the central bank’s daily purchases. Our earlier coverage looks at Argentina’s inflation stall before the vote year and how provinces are splitting their votes from the national election, and more is in our Argentina section.
What Is Not Known
FMyA’s figures are its own estimate, and official tallies of futures and dollar-linked sales may differ. It is also unclear how much of the hedging demand would otherwise have gone to the spot market.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Argentine peso stable if investors fear a fall?
FMyA says part of the demand for dollars is met by cover that the state sells, such as futures and dollar-linked bonds. Investors can protect themselves without buying dollars directly.
What is dollar-linked debt?
It is a peso bond whose payout follows the official dollar rate. The holder is protected if the peso weakens.
Who leads the prediction markets for the 2027 election?
On Polymarket, Javier Milei is at 43.5%, Axel Kicillof at 33.5% and Sergio Massa at 14.4%. These are bets, not polls.
What are dollar futures?
They are contracts to buy dollars at a fixed price on a later date. The state sold about US$4 billion of them this year, FMyA estimates.
Sources: Fernando Marull y Asociados (FMyA), study on dollar purchases and cover sold, November 2026; Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) data; Polymarket, Argentine presidential election market, read 11 November 2026 at 1:16 a.m. ET. Exchange rate: recent wholesale market close.
In depth
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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