Argentina’s dollar bonds are now priced as if President Javier Milei has less than an even chance of winning a second term in 2027. FMyA, a Buenos Aires economics consultancy led by economist Fernando Marull, calculates that bond prices imply a 45% chance of reelection, down from about 90% in July.
Argentina’s country risk, the extra yield investors demand over US Treasury bonds, closed at 852 basis points on Wednesday 11 November 2026, after closing at 939 on 6 November. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, and the July low was 402 points.
- Who: FMyA, a Buenos Aires consultancy, says bonds imply a 45% chance Milei is reelected.
- What: Country risk closed at 852 basis points on 11 November, against 402 at its July low.
- Next: The first round of the presidential election is expected on Sunday 24 October 2027.
- Power Index: Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 60.2 points (November 2026 edition).
- As of: 12 November 2026, 11:00 GMT
How Bond Prices Become Election Odds
Analysts compare today’s price of Argentina’s long-dated dollar bonds with the prices they would fetch in a calm second Milei term and in a return to market stress. The gap gives a probability implied by prices, which makes it a market bet and not a poll.
FMyA’s 45% therefore shows how investors weigh the risk of a policy change after 2027. S&P Global Ratings, a US credit rating agency, rates Argentina’s long-term foreign-currency debt B-, upgraded from CCC+ on 10 June 2026 with a stable outlook.
Why It Matters for Investors
Higher country risk raises the cost of borrowing for the government and for companies. Argentine banks and energy firms that borrow abroad feel the same pressure.
Country risk eased for a second session, from 873 points on 9 November to 853 on 10 November and 852 on 11 November. That is still more than double the July low, so the market has not forgiven the political risk.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
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172,060.43
+0.42%
72,006.05
+0.16%
10,552.02
-0.43%
2,848,945
—
2,486.39
-1.65%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -10.97% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,544 | -0.03% | +9.51% | 1,545 | 1,544 | 1,544 | — |
| YPF | 6,220 | -3.64% | +10.88% | 6,455 | 6,390 | 6,155 | 2,052,860 |
| GGAL | 4,955 | +0.81% | -38.89% | 4,915 | 5,120 | 4,905 | 1,698,792 |
| PAMPA | 4,255 | -0.41% | -18.32% | 4,273 | 4,343 | 4,210 | 1,131,629 |
| TXAR | 684.00 | -2.08% | -20.44% | 698.50 | 719.00 | 671.00 | 1,287,280 |
| ALUAR | 768.00 | -0.78% | -31.85% | 774.00 | 790.00 | 757.00 | 244,634 |
| TGS | 7,070 | -2.08% | -22.56% | 7,220 | 7,350 | 7,000 | 374,322 |
| CEPU | 1,672 | +0.54% | -23.15% | 1,663 | 1,723 | 1,664 | 649,161 |
| MIRGOR | 1,740 | +0.00% | -92.26% | 1,740 | 1,780 | 1,670 | 81,440 |
| COME | 32.09 | +3.35% | -54.20% | 31.05 | 34.00 | 30.70 | 8,963,563 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 2,930 | +0.17% | -13.05% | 2,925 | 2,990 | 2,870 | 170,486 |
| BYMA | 199.00 | +0.38% | -30.58% | 198.25 | 202.75 | 195.00 | 7,800,352 |
| TELECOM ARG | 3,455 | +3.06% | -2.97% | 3,353 | 3,550 | 3,390 | 158,864 |
| GLOBANT | 46.34 | -5.06% | -24.98% | 48.81 | 47.62 | 46.08 | 1,016,987 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,512 | +1.46% | -28.13% | 1,490 | 1,512 | 1,465 | 594,946 |
What to Watch Next
Under Argentine electoral law a candidate wins in the first round with 45% of valid votes, or with 40% and a lead of more than 10 points. Otherwise the two top candidates meet in a runoff, a second-round vote.
Our recent reports look at how provinces are splitting their votes from the national election and at a Milei adviser’s allies seeking a campaign role. More is in our Argentina news.
What Is Not Known
Bond-implied odds move daily and do not forecast votes. Other firms have published different estimates, which we have not verified, so we cite only FMyA’s figure.
What It Means for You
Holders of Argentine dollar bonds, including funds in the United States, are pricing political risk a year before the vote. A further rise in country risk would make it harder for Argentina and its companies to borrow abroad.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does country risk mean for Argentina?
It is the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds instead of US Treasuries. It closed at 852 basis points, or 8.52 percentage points, on 11 November 2026.
What chance of reelection do the bonds imply?
FMyA, a Buenos Aires consultancy, estimates about 45%. This is a market-implied probability, not a poll.
When is Argentina’s next presidential election?
The first round is expected on Sunday 24 October 2027, the fourth Sunday of October under current law. A runoff follows if no candidate clears the first-round thresholds.
Sources: FMyA estimate by economist Fernando Marull, November 2026; country-risk series (Rava), closes of 6 to 11 November 2026; S&P Global Ratings, Argentina sovereign rating (spglobal.com); Argentine electoral law.
In depth
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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