Colombian Peso Holds Near 3,300 per Dollar | Colombia Market Report, Nov 12

01 The session in one read

Think of Thursday as a tug-of-war. On one side, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.10% and the dollar index gained 0.25% to 103.17, which usually weakens emerging-market currencies. On the other, oil jumped about 3%, which usually supports Colombia’s.

The peso ended in the middle, near 3,300 per dollar. For a traveller or expat, that means prices in dollars barely changed from the day before.

We could not verify the COLCAP close, so this wrap covers the currency and the global backdrop rather than the stock index.

02 The day’s numbers

Read the table as one story. The dollar-peso rate sits inside a wide yearly band, closer to the bottom than the top, so the peso is in the stronger half of its year.

The dollar peaked at 3,864 pesos on 18 December 2025 and bottomed at 3,044 on 24 August 2026. Round numbers at 3,200 and 3,300 flank the close and are the levels traders use as quick markers.

03 Oil support against a firmer dollar

First and heaviest: a risk-off mood in global markets, at medium-to-high confidence. The S&P 500, the index of America’s 500 largest listed companies, fell 0.35%, the VIX rose 6.92% to 18.70, and Nvidia shares dropped 4.3% on the day its chief executive, Jensen Huang, resigned.

Second: dearer money in the US, at medium-to-high confidence. The 10-year Treasury yield, the return on US government loans and a benchmark for borrowing costs worldwide, rose to 5.10% from 4.98% on Tuesday (the US bond market was shut on Wednesday).

The peso’s resilience is the puzzle, because the dollar index (DXY), which measures the US dollar against major currencies, rose 0.25% to 103.17. Our best-supported explanation, at low-to-medium confidence, is oil: US crude rose about 3%, and Colombia sells crude abroad, so dearer oil brings in more dollars.

That oil bounce came even though official US data show commercial crude stocks up 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million in the week to 6 November (US Energy Information Administration, eia.gov). It looks like geopolitics rather than tighter supply, which is why the peso’s support is fragile.

04 The day’s movers

Today’s read is about the forces behind the currency, not single shares. Three drivers lean against Colombian assets (the dollar index, yields and the fear gauge), while one, oil, props up the peso.

Wall Street is still up 3.25% over five sessions, so Thursday looks like a wobble inside a rally rather than a reversal.

05 The regional scoreboard

Currencies split. The Brazilian real and Chilean peso weakened (USD/BRL 5.6413, up 1.05%; USD/CLP 994.3, up 1.17%), while Mexico’s peso was flat (USD/MXN 18.602, up 0.01%) and Colombia’s held near 3,300.

In São Paulo, the day also brought October consumer-price inflation of 0.14% on the month, below forecasts, and 4.63% over twelve months. We show a dash where we could not verify the day’s close. The live market board above carries all the closes.

06 The technical picture

The dollar-peso chart has two walls. The floor is 3,044, the 24 August low; the ceiling is 3,864, the 18 December 2025 high.

Thursday’s rate near 3,300 is about 8% above the floor and nearly 15% below the ceiling. Round numbers at 3,200 and 3,300 flank the close.

Does the peso’s calm last? It probably does while oil stays firm and US yields stop rising. If yields keep climbing and oil fades, the peso’s support goes first.

07 What to watch

• Colombian activity data: Friday 13 November, 15:00 Lisbon time: industrial production (forecast −0.8, previous −3.7) and retail sales (forecast 8.7, previous 7.3) show whether local demand is cushioning global nerves.
• US producer prices: Friday 13 November, 13:30 Lisbon time: the producer price index, a gauge of what factories charge, is forecast at 0.4 against 1.3 before; a hotter reading could push yields higher.
• Oil: Friday 18:00 Lisbon time: the Baker Hughes count of active US oil rigs (previous 463) is a check on supply, and oil is the peso’s main support.
• Calendar: Colombia’s consumer confidence (forecast 15.8, previous 15.7) was due at 15:00 Lisbon time on 12 November; no actual figure was in the RT economic calendar when we closed.

Background: Colombian Peso Slips Near 3,300 per Dollar.

Background: Colombian Peso Slips to 3,297 per Dollar.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, where users bet real money, lists a market on the Central Bank of Colombia’s December decision, with US$41,665 traded as of 7:41 p.m. ET, 12 November 2026. It prices no change at 55.5%, a 0.25-point rise at 32.5%, a 0.5-point or larger cut at 3.6%, a 0.5-point or larger rise at 3.4% and a 0.25-point cut at 2.0%.

These prices are bets, not polls. They show traders see a hold as likelier than a rise, with a sizeable minority expecting the central bank to raise rates.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why was the Colombian peso steady on Thursday?

Oil rose about 3%, and Colombia exports crude, which offset pressure from higher US yields and a firmer global dollar.

What is the COLCAP?

It is the main index of the Colombian stock exchange, tracking the country’s largest and most traded listed companies. We could not verify its close on Thursday, so we do not print a figure.

What does USD/COP near 3,300 mean for travellers?

It means one US dollar buys about 3,300 Colombian pesos, little changed from the day before.

Where is the peso in its yearly range?

The dollar traded between 3,044 pesos on 24 August 2026 and 3,864 on 18 December 2025. Near 3,300 it is about 8% above the low and nearly 15% below the high.

Market data: The Rio Times; exchange figures from BVC

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error

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