Argentina Awaits October Inflation Reading

ARGENTINA · ECONOMY

Forecasters expect Argentine prices to keep rising at about 2% a month, a pace that has stopped improving as the national statistics office prepares to publish its figure.

Argentina’s monthly inflation is expected to hold near 2% when INDEC, the national statistics office, publishes its October figure on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 4 p.m. Buenos Aires time (2 p.m. ET). Private forecasts range from 1.8% to 2.1%, after INDEC reported 1.9% for September.

The Libertad y Progreso Foundation, a Buenos Aires think tank, estimates 1.8%, which would mean prices up 25.9% over the first ten months of 2026 and 32.7% over twelve months. Equilibra, an economic consultancy, also forecasts 1.8%, a tenth of a point below September.

What the Forecasters See

Equilibra expects seasonal items to lead October’s rise, up 2.7%, with vegetables up 5.4% and public transport up 3.3%. A reading of 1.8% would be a tenth of a point below September, so forecasters see little progress.

The range of private estimates, 1.8% to 2.1%, is narrow, which shows how little forecasters expect the pace to change from September’s 1.9%.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, a prediction-market platform where users bet real money, traders priced a reading of 1.9% to 2.1% at 54% and 1.6% to 1.8% at 37% as of 9:45 a.m. ET on 12 November (14:45 UTC), on a market with US$42,997 traded in total. These are bets, not polls or forecasts, and the prices of the brackets do not add up to 100%.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

Inflation is the main test for investors weighing Argentina, which S&P Global Ratings, a US credit-rating agency, upgraded to B- from CCC+ on 10 June 2026, with a stable outlook. A reading above 2% would show that the slowdown in prices has stalled, while a reading below it would extend a gradual decline.

For travellers and expats paid in dollars, a monthly rate near 2% means peso prices rise by more than a quarter over a year.

What Is Not Known

The official October figure, the regional detail and the item-by-item breakdown are not known until INDEC publishes them. The next checkpoint is INDEC’s November reading, which will show whether prices stay near 2%.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does INDEC publish October inflation?

INDEC, Argentina’s statistics office, publishes it on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 4 p.m. Buenos Aires time (2 p.m. ET).

What was inflation in September?

INDEC reported 1.9% for September, up from 1.7% in August.

What do forecasters expect for October?

Private estimates range from 1.8% to 2.1% for the month. Two named forecasters, Libertad y Progreso and Equilibra, both estimate 1.8%.

Sources: INDEC, consumer price index release calendar and September 2026 report (indec.gob.ar); Libertad y Progreso Foundation, October 2026 inflation estimate; Equilibra, October 2026 inflation estimate; Polymarket, Argentina Monthly Inflation, October; S&P Global Ratings, sovereign ratings, Argentina upgrade of 10 June 2026.