Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Monday, September 28, 2026
Key Facts
- The Selic wager is the day’s pivot because the central bank’s Focus survey at 8:25 BRT will show whether economists still expect one more cut, to 13.50%, by year-end or begin to price a pause at 13.75%.
- The Focus readout lands at 8:25 BRT giving traders updated inflation, growth and interest-rate forecasts a week before the first round of the election.
- Brazil’s August current account is due at 8:30 BRT with a consensus deficit of US$6.2bn versus US$8.11bn in July, a key test for the real.
- Foreign direct investment for August is also out at 8:30 BRT with consensus at US$6.8bn versus a prior US$7.46bn, showing whether foreign capital is still arriving to fund the external gap.
- Banrisul pays R$90 million (about US$17.4 million) in interest on own capital this week or R$0.22006263 (about US$0.04) per share, with the shares already trading ex-rights.
Today’s Focus
Brazil’s market opens Monday without a clear pre-market futures signal, so the real action starts with the central bank’s Focus bulletin at 8:25 BRT, well before the 10:00 BRT B3 open. That readout is the week’s first look at what economists now expect for inflation, growth and the Selic — the benchmark interest rate that was cut to 13.75% on 16 September.
Minutes from that September meeting, published on 22 September, defended keeping rates restrictive, meaning the central bank left its options open rather than promising another cut. Last week’s Focus survey already showed a year-end Selic forecast of 13.50%, implying one more quarter-point cut; today’s edition will show whether that view holds after Friday’s hotter-than-expected IPCA-15 inflation reading.
Five minutes later, at 8:30 BRT, the August current account and foreign direct investment figures land. A narrower current-account deficit than the US$8.11bn seen before would ease pressure on the real, while weaker foreign direct investment would do the opposite.
The corporate side is quiet, but Banrisul’s R$90 million (about US$17.4 million) interest-on-own-capital distribution and any election headlines can keep domestic names two-way through the morning.
What matters today. Whether the Focus survey shows rising or falling Selic expectations, because that single signal will set the tone for the real, the Ibovespa and rate-sensitive stocks at the open.
Today’s Economic Events
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 183,477 | -0.27% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,743 | +0.51% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1811 | -0.22% |
Closing levels of Friday, 25 September 2026. Sources: B3, S&P Dow Jones Indices, market data.
01 The setup in one read
Monday’s B3 session is a data morning: a pre-open release bundle from the central bank will do the heavy lifting. The Focus Market Readout at 8:25 BRT and the August current account and foreign direct investment at 8:30 BRT arrive back to back, pulling the Selic outlook and the real’s fortunes into one window before the 10:00 BRT open.
The Selic sits at 13.75% after a September quarter-point cut, but the minutes stressed the need to keep policy restrictive. That makes every update on economist forecasts a minor event, because it reveals whether the market still prices another cut or leans towards a pause.
The external accounts matter too. A narrower current-account deficit would be a small victory for Brazil’s financing story, while a fall in foreign direct investment could tighten the screws on the real.
Corporate events are thin, but Banrisul’s R$90 million (about US$17.4 million) shareholder payout and any election-related headlines give traders a few single-name handles.
With the Ibovespa coming off a three-session losing streak and a weekly loss of almost 1%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.51% on Friday, Brazilian assets are likely to trade on domestic data and central-bank signals rather than global equity beta. The Focus survey and external accounts before the open give traders concrete evidence on whether the cautious-easing narrative is intact. If inflation expectations drift higher, the real and rate-sensitive stocks may come under pressure even if the current-account data beat. Watch the Focus inflation forecast — it is the variable most likely to move the open.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Instrument | Last close | Indicated | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa — Brazil’s main share index | 183,477 points | — | Focus survey and external accounts at 8:25–8:30 BRT |
| USD/BRL — Brazilian reais per US dollar | 5.1811 | — | Selic expectations and August capital flows |
| S&P 500 — US benchmark | 7,743 | — | Overnight risk tone after Friday’s 0.51% gain |
| VIX — US volatility gauge | 14.87 | — | Global risk appetite into the election week |
The board shows the Ibovespa down 0.27% at Friday’s close, its third straight loss as Petrobras fell with oil, while the real firmed to 5.18 reais per US dollar. With no verified pre-market futures indication available, the table is more about the levels that anchor today’s price discovery than a confident direction.
The S&P 500 and VIX rows show global conditions that are benign but not screaming risk-on. That leaves Brazil to trade on its own domestic catalysts, which is exactly what the pre-open release bundle delivers. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
183,476.86
-0.27%
+21.85%
183,965.91
168,310
167,142
—
USD/BRL
5.16
+0.01%
-5.13%
5.16
5.18
5.14
—
EUR/BRL
5.95
+1.01%
-5.83%
5.89
5.98
5.94
—
SELIC
14.00%
—
—
—
—
—
BRENT
88.88
-0.03%
+34.42%
88.91
90.07
88.12
29,713
WTI
83.11
-0.11%
+31.57%
83.20
84.35
82.40
166,848
IRON ORE
161.91
—
+58.10%
161.91
161.91
1
GOLD
4,461
+1.78%
+33.20%
4,383
4,503
4,421
139,824
SILVER
65.59
+1.26%
+73.05%
64.77
66.98
64.81
46,406
LITHIUM
75.20
+1.47%
+62.95%
74.11
75.80
75.08
89,275
SOY
1,184
+3.20%
+17.05%
1,148
1,199
1,168
163,179
CORN
480.50
+10.02%
+29.34%
436.75
480.75
459.50
341,248
WHEAT
655.00
+3.93%
+29.70%
630.25
657.75
631.50
128,793
COFFEE
317.25
-5.51%
+0.67%
335.75
321.20
313.55
21,747
SUGAR
16.43
-1.79%
-3.01%
16.73
17.11
16.22
171,992
ORANGE JUICE
138.55
-0.47%
-45.38%
139.20
141.05
137.50
703
COTTON
85.03
+2.33%
+26.78%
83.09
82.90
81.96
16,546
BEEF
223.60
-3.93%
-5.18%
232.75
226.40
223.00
16,126
CATTLE
339.10
-3.16%
-1.82%
350.17
345.50
338.60
10,164
COCOA
5,719
+3.18%
-34.96%
5,543
5,779
5,574
26,773
PETR4
41.64
-0.05%
+35.19%
41.66
41.97
41.15
41,499,400
VALE3
72.97
+0.83%
+30.75%
72.37
73.54
72.66
17,658,000
SUZB3
41.33
+2.35%
-23.55%
40.38
41.48
40.35
3,914,900
KLABIN
17.69
+0.80%
-2.95%
17.55
17.74
17.48
2,057,400
SLCE3
13.34
+0.30%
-12.25%
13.30
13.42
13.20
1,454,200
ABEV3
14.89
-0.80%
+21.91%
15.01
15.07
14.81
16,453,100
ITUB4
38.60
-1.03%
+4.57%
39.00
39.34
38.39
29,487,800
BBDC4
16.85
+0.36%
+3.50%
16.79
16.90
16.67
19,416,900
BBAS3
19.37
+0.47%
+0.73%
19.28
19.44
19.16
11,069,200
B3SA3
14.26
-0.21%
+12.73%
14.29
14.47
14.11
33,037,800
WEGE3
47.59
+0.49%
+29.99%
47.36
48.08
47.36
3,364,600
PRIO3
59.14
-0.19%
+50.67%
59.25
59.81
58.74
3,325,600
RENT3
34.68
-0.09%
+0.84%
34.71
34.96
34.35
7,979,100
AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%
-53.76%
16.32
16.42
15.82
1,330,300
CSNA3
4.30
+0.47%
-42.65%
4.28
4.41
4.26
10,076,100
GGBR4
24.69
+2.19%
+51.38%
24.16
24.85
24.18
7,047,600
ENEV3
24.21
-1.38%
+70.49%
24.55
24.64
23.99
9,297,000
LREN3
11.87
-1.33%
-28.65%
12.03
12.17
11.83
9,683,300
03 On the B3 radar today — Focus, flows and a small payout
| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| BCB Focus Market Readout | 8:25 BRT | Shows whether economists still see the Selic at 13.50% by year-end or start pricing a pause |
| August current account | 8:30 BRT | Tests Brazil’s external financing pressure and the real’s sensitivity |
| August foreign direct investment | 8:30 BRT | Measures whether long-term capital is still funding the external deficit |
| Banrisul interest on own capital | This week | R$90 million (about US$17.4 million) payout, R$0.22006263 (about US$0.04) per share |
The Focus survey is the marquee item: it updates market forecasts for inflation, growth and the Selic path just days before the first round of the presidential election. Any shift in the median inflation or interest-rate forecast will ripple through BRL and rate-sensitive B3 names immediately.
The external accounts follow five minutes later, so the market digests the financing picture in one gulp. Banrisul’s payout is a small but clean cash-flow event for its holders.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
The Selic was cut by 25 basis points to 13.75% in September, but the Copom minutes defended keeping rates restrictive because of demand pressure on inflation. Last week’s Focus median still pointed to 13.50% by year-end, with 2026 IPCA inflation at 4.92%; today’s edition is the first to capture Friday’s IPCA-15 surprise.
If economists raise their inflation forecasts, it suggests the central bank may hold longer — which would support the real but pressure stocks, especially rate-sensitive consumer and construction names. If forecasts are stable or lower, bets on another cut could gain ground.
The August current account and foreign direct investment feed the same story from the external side. A smaller deficit and stable FDI would give the real breathing room; a wider gap could push USD/BRL toward the top of its recent band.
05 Corporate stories to watch today
Banrisul is the clearest corporate story: it pays R$90 million (about US$17.4 million) in interest on own capital this week, or R$0.22006263 (about US$0.04) per share, to shareholders on record. The shares already trade ex-rights, so the payment is a cash-flow event for holders rather than a price catalyst.
Itaú, Bradesco, Copel and Fleury are among other companies paying shareholder distributions this week, but no major earnings are scheduled for this session. That leaves attention on the macro releases and any election headlines, which have been moving some volatility-sensitive names.
Heavyweights such as Petrobras, which led Friday’s decline as oil fell, Vale and the big banks, which cushioned the index, are likely to remain the liquid vectors for any macro repricing after the morning data.
06 The levels to watch at the open
For the Ibovespa, the 183,477 close is the natural pivot. A break above it would suggest traders are treating the Focus survey as benign, while a move below would extend the three-session slide.
For the real, 5.18 reais per US dollar is the psychological line. A Focus readout that hints at a longer Selic hold could keep USD/BRL anchored there or lower, while any inflation surprise could push it towards 5.25 reais per US dollar.
In stocks, rate-sensitive consumer and property names will be the fastest to respond if the Selic path shifts. And if foreign direct investment surprises to the downside, expect pressure on the real before any equity move.
07 What to watch
- Focus inflation forecast: Any rise in the median inflation expectation could delay Selic cuts and pressure rate-sensitive stocks
- August current account: A smaller deficit than July’s US$8.11bn would ease external financing pressure on the real
- Foreign direct investment: A drop below the US$7.46bn prior would signal weaker long-term capital inflows
- Election headlines: New poll or debate news before the first round could drive volatility in state-owned and consumer names
Background: Angola Says Industrial Plants Rose 44% in a Year as It Looks Beyond Oil.
Background: Ethiopia Faces Higher Flood Risk as a Very Strong El Niño Peaks in 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Copom?
Copom is Brazil’s monetary policy committee, which sets the Selic, the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.
What is the Focus survey?
The Focus Market Readout is the Brazilian central bank’s weekly survey of economists’ forecasts for inflation, growth and interest rates.
Why does the Selic matter for B3?
The Selic sets the cost of money in Brazil. Higher rates support the real but hurt stocks, especially consumer, property and construction names that depend on credit.
What is the real?
The real is Brazil’s currency, traded against the US dollar as USD/BRL. A lower USD/BRL figure means a stronger real.
Market data: B3, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Cboe; Focus survey: Banco Central do Brasil.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.