Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Monday, September 28, 2026

Closing levels of Friday, 25 September 2026. Sources: B3, S&P Dow Jones Indices, market data.

01 The setup in one read

Monday’s B3 session is a data morning: a pre-open release bundle from the central bank did the heavy lifting. The Focus Market Readout at 8:25 BRT and the August current account and foreign direct investment at 8:30 BRT arrived back to back, pulling the Selic outlook and the real’s fortunes into one window before the 10:00 BRT open.

The Selic sits at 13.75% after a September quarter-point cut, but the minutes stressed the need to keep policy restrictive. That makes every update on economist forecasts a minor event, because it reveals whether the market still prices another cut or leans towards a pause.

The external accounts delivered a small victory for Brazil’s financing story: an August deficit of US$5.1bn, far narrower than July’s, funded in full by US$7.4bn of foreign direct investment.

Corporate events are thin, but Banrisul’s R$90 million (about US$17.4 million) shareholder payout and any election-related headlines give traders a few single-name handles.

02 Where Brazil is set to open

The board shows the Ibovespa down 0.27% at Friday’s close, its third straight loss as Petrobras fell with oil, while the real firmed to 5.18 reais per US dollar. With no verified pre-market futures indication available, the table is more about the levels that anchor today’s price discovery than a confident direction.

The S&P 500 and VIX rows show global conditions that are benign but not screaming risk-on. That leaves Brazil to trade on its own domestic catalysts, which is exactly what the pre-open release bundle delivers.

03 On the B3 radar today — Focus, flows and a small payout

The Focus survey is the marquee item: it updated market forecasts for inflation, growth and the Selic path just days before the first round of the presidential election. The higher inflation median is the shift most likely to ripple through BRL and rate-sensitive B3 names.

The external accounts followed five minutes later, so the market digests the financing picture in one gulp. Banrisul’s payout is a small but clean cash-flow event for its holders.

04 Copom and the macro backdrop

The Selic was cut by 25 basis points to 13.75% in September, but the Copom minutes defended keeping rates restrictive because of demand pressure on inflation. Today’s Focus median still points to 13.50% by year-end, unchanged from last week, but 2026 IPCA inflation is now seen at 4.99%, up from 4.92%, in the first edition to include forecasts made after Friday’s IPCA-15 surprise.

Higher inflation forecasts suggest the central bank may hold longer — which would support the real but pressure stocks, especially rate-sensitive consumer and construction names. For now economists still pencil in one more cut; a further rise in the inflation median would test that view.

The August current account and foreign direct investment feed the same story from the external side. A smaller deficit and steady FDI in August give the real some breathing room and reduce the risk of USD/BRL pushing toward the top of its recent band.

05 Corporate stories to watch today

Banrisul is the clearest corporate story: it pays R$90 million (about US$17.4 million) in interest on own capital this week, or R$0.22006263 (about US$0.04) per share, to shareholders on record. The shares already trade ex-rights, so the payment is a cash-flow event for holders rather than a price catalyst.

Itaú, Bradesco, Copel and Fleury are among other companies paying shareholder distributions this week, but no major earnings are scheduled for this session. That leaves attention on the macro releases and any election headlines, which have been moving some volatility-sensitive names.

Heavyweights such as Petrobras, which led Friday’s decline as oil fell, Vale and the big banks, which cushioned the index, are likely to remain the liquid vectors for any macro repricing after the morning data.

06 The levels to watch at the open

For the Ibovespa, the 183,477 close is the natural pivot. A break above it would suggest traders are treating the Focus survey as benign, while a move below would extend the three-session slide.

For the real, 5.18 reais per US dollar is the psychological line. A Focus readout that hints at a longer Selic hold could keep USD/BRL anchored there or lower, while any inflation surprise could push it towards 5.25 reais per US dollar.

In stocks, rate-sensitive consumer and property names will be the fastest to respond if the Selic path shifts. With foreign direct investment beating forecasts, the external side offers the real support rather than pressure.

07 What to watch

• Focus inflation forecast: The 2026 median rose to 4.99% from 4.92%; a further rise could delay Selic cuts and pressure rate-sensitive stocks
• August current account: The deficit narrowed to US$5.1bn from a revised US$9.4bn in July, easing external financing pressure on the real
• Foreign direct investment: US$7.4bn in August, above forecasts and up from a revised US$7.0bn in July, shows long-term capital still arriving
• Election headlines: New poll or debate news before the first round could drive volatility in state-owned and consumer names

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Copom?

Copom is Brazil’s monetary policy committee, which sets the Selic, the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.

What is the Focus survey?

The Focus Market Readout is the Brazilian central bank’s weekly survey of economists’ forecasts for inflation, growth and interest rates.

Why does the Selic matter for B3?

The Selic sets the cost of money in Brazil. Higher rates support the real but hurt stocks, especially consumer, property and construction names that depend on credit.

What is the real?

The real is Brazil’s currency, traded against the US dollar as USD/BRL. A lower USD/BRL figure means a stronger real.

Market data: B3, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Cboe; Focus survey and external accounts: Banco Central do Brasil.

Correction — 29 September 2026: An earlier version of this report gave the market forecasts for Brazil’s August external accounts as US$6.2 billion for the current-account deficit and US$6.8 billion for foreign direct investment, and described the deficit as narrower than expected. The median forecasts of economists surveyed by Projeções Broadcast were US$4.9 billion and US$6.95 billion, so the US$5.05 billion deficit came in slightly wider than expected, while direct investment beat forecasts.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error

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