Brazil Stocks Rise 0.4% Before Key Inflation Data | Morning Call, Nov 12

Source: market close, 11 November 2026.

01 The setup in one read

Brazil’s session starts with a calendar that is thin on Brazilian data but heavy on one release. IBGE publishes October inflation, known as the IPCA, at 09:00 Brasília time, and everything else is secondary until it lands.

The consensus in the economic calendar is 0.26% for the month, down from 0.82% prior, and 4.74% for the twelve months, up from 4.58%.

The IPCA-15, a mid-month preview published on 23 October, rose 0.32% in October and 4.62% over twelve months. That split matters because the market will read the two numbers differently. A cooling month supports the argument for further rate cuts, while a rising annual rate gives the cautious side something to hold.

Context is a month of heavy selling. The Ibovespa is down 16.83% over 20 sessions and the dollar is up 11.04% against the real over the same period, so positioning going into the print is likely defensive.

02 Where Brazil is set to open

The indicated column is blank because no futures readings for the index or the dollar were available at publication. The last close is context only, and the live board below the table shows the full picture.

The levels in the right-hand column are the ones that matter. The real sits just 0.1% below its 12-month high, so a weak open could print a new extreme, while the Ibovespa remains 11.2% above its 12-month low of 154,770.

The US side leans against Brazil: the dollar index rose 0.79% yesterday and the US 10-year yield stays near 5%. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.

03 On the B3 radar today — October inflation and rate bets

Times are shown in Brasília time; US and regional events matter to B3 mainly through the dollar and Treasury yields. Friday brings Brazilian retail sales and business confidence, but today is a one-print day.

Also on the calendar: Brazilian auto production (forecast 1.8, previous -1.1), Brazilian service sector growth (previous 0.6) and the Thomson Reuters Ipsos consumer sentiment index (previous 54.07), none with a reported figure yet. In the United States, initial jobless claims are forecast at 195,000 (previous 189,000), continuing jobless claims at 1.72 million (previous 1.718 million) and the four-week average of jobless claims at 192,500 (previous 194,750), all at 10:30 Brasília time. The EIA, the US Energy Information Administration, reports crude oil stocks at 2:00 p.m. Brasília time (previous change of -0.865 million barrels), along with Cushing crude oil stocks (previous change of +0.28 million barrels).

04 Copom and the macro backdrop

The Copom held the Selic at 13.75% on 4 November by a unanimous vote, interrupting a run of five straight 25-basis-point cuts from 15%. The next decision falls on 8 and 9 December.

The committee cited a worse domestic and external outlook since its September meeting. Part of the market had priced a cut to 13.50%, so the hold surprised some traders.

Today’s IPCA is the first big input since that pause. A cool month supports resuming cuts, while a higher yearly rate hands the cautious committee members an argument.

05 Corporate story to watch today

Banco do Brasil, the state-controlled bank at the heart of Brazil’s farm-driven economy, reported third-quarter profit of R$1.3 billion (about US$0.23 billion), down 66.5%. It set aside R$21.2 billion (about US$3.8 billion) for bad loans and cut its 2026 profit goal to a range of R$9 billion to R$11 billion (about US$1.6 billion to US$2.0 billion) from R$18 billion to R$22 billion.

The bank presents to investors today, and its shares trade for the first time since the results, which came after the close on Wednesday. The figures are the bank’s own, from its results release.

06 The levels to watch at the open

For the real, the line is 5.59, the 12-month high from 22 December 2025, with the 12-month low of 4.89 far below. A break above 5.59 would mark a new extreme for the year.

For the Ibovespa, the nearest markers are round numbers at 170,000 and 175,000. The 12-month high is 209,067 and the low is 154,770.

History offers a little comfort but no promise. In our own price records since 2007, the Ibovespa has fallen at least this far in 20 sessions on 7 earlier occasions, and was higher 20 sessions later in 4 of them, or 57%, with a median gain of 5.1% and a worst case of a further 19.8% fall.

For the dollar against the real, there have been 16 earlier cases of a rise this size, and the dollar was higher 20 sessions later in only 5, or 31%; the median was a 2.3% fall, though the worst outcome was a further 29.5% rise. This is history, not a forecast.

Across Latin America, Brazil’s inflation print and the level of US yields, which were last quoted near 5%, are the common threads for regional currencies.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket’s market on the Brazilian central bank’s December decision, with about US$69,700 traded, prices no change in the Selic at 90.5%, a 25-basis-point cut at 6.4% and a cut of 50 basis points or more at 1.4%. Prices are bets, not polls; stand 11:19 pm ET on 11 November 2026.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

07 What to watch

• IPCA inflation: Monthly figure against the 0.26% consensus and the yearly 4.74%; it sets the tone for the December Copom wager.
• The real at 5.59: A move through the 12-month high of 5.59 would mark a new extreme for the currency.
• Banco do Brasil: First trading after a 66.5% profit fall and a cut to the 2026 profit goal, plus the investor presentation.
• Argentina inflation: The October figure at 4:00 p.m. Brasília time against the 1.8% monthly forecast.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the key Brazil data release today?

October inflation, the IPCA, is published by IBGE at 09:00 Brasília time. Economists expect 0.26% for the month and 4.74% over twelve months.

When is the next Copom meeting?

The Copom held the Selic at 13.75% on 4 November, ending five straight cuts. The next decision is on 8 and 9 December.

What did Banco do Brasil report?

Third-quarter profit of R$1.3 billion (about US$0.23 billion), down 66.5%, and a lower 2026 profit goal. It presents to investors today.

How far has the Ibovespa fallen?

It is down 16.83% over 20 sessions and 17.7% below its 9 October peak of 209,067. It remains 11.2% above its 12-month low.

Market data: The Rio Times

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error

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