Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for June 26, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are set for a pivotal session today, shaped by a dense global economic calendar and domestic indicators that could steer investor sentiment.
The Central Bank of Brazil’s (BCB) Selic rate hike to 15% on June 18, 2025, continues to drive market dynamics, targeting inflation above the 3% ceiling while increasing borrowing costs.
This policy, against a 76.2% public debt-to-GDP ratio and a projected R$104 billion fiscal deficit for 2025, supports the Brazilian real through carry trade but pressures sectors like retail and construction.
Today’s economic agenda is critical, providing insights into global commodity demand, currency stability, and equity market trends. Key domestic events include the BCB National Monetary Council Meeting at 7:00 AM EST (8:00 AM BRT).
This meeting will signal monetary policy direction amid fiscal debates over the IOF tax hike. The Mid-Month CPI at 8:00 AM EST (9:00 AM BRT), with consensus estimates of 0.30% MoM and 5.31% YoY, will gauge inflation trends, shaping BCB policy expectations.
The Federal Tax Revenue data at 9:30 AM EST (10:30 AM BRT) will reflect fiscal health, crucial given concerns about Brazil’s budget trajectory.
Globally, Latin American events include Mexico’s Trade Balance at 8:00 AM EST (9:00 AM BRT), indicating regional trade dynamics affecting Brazil’s exports, and Mexico’s Interest Rate Decision at 3:00 PM EST (4:00 PM BRT), with a consensus of 8.00%, signaling monetary policy in a key trading partner.
Other significant events include Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate at 2:00 AM EST (3:00 AM BRT), reflecting sentiment impacting Brazilian metals and agricultural goods.
The UK’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey at 6:00 AM EST (7:00 AM BRT) and BoE speeches (Breeden at 4:30 AM EST, Bailey at 7:00 AM EST) will guide consumer spending and policy outlooks, affecting Brazil’s agribusiness exports.
The U.S. releases GDP, Core PCE Prices, and Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM EST (9:30 AM BRT), shaping North American demand for Brazil’s oil and protein exports.
The EU Leaders Summit and ECB speeches (De Guindos at 5:45 AM EST, Schnabel at 7:00 AM EST, Lagarde at 2:30 PM EST) will provide monetary policy cues, vital for Brazil’s commodity-driven economy.
These events are crucial as the Ibovespa faces volatility, the real trades near R$5.55, and commodities navigate global demand pressures.
Economic Agenda
Brazil
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – BCB National Monetary Council Meeting: Actual TBD. Sets monetary policy, key amid fiscal concerns and Selic at 15%.
- 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – Mid-Month CPI (MoM) (Jun): Consensus 0.30%, previous 0.36%. Tracks inflation, influencing BCB policy expectations.
- 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – Mid-Month CPI (YoY) (Jun): Consensus 5.31%, previous 5.40%. Signals persistent inflation, impacting real and rates.
- 9:30 AM EST / 10:30 AM BRT – Federal Tax Revenue (May): Actual TBD, previous 261.30B. Reflects fiscal capacity, critical amid IOF tax debates.
Mexico
- 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (May): Consensus 0.370B, previous -0.088B. Indicates regional trade health, affecting Brazil’s exports.
- 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (USD) (May): Actual TBD, previous 0.083B. Signals currency flows, impacting regional sentiment.
- 3:00 PM EST / 4:00 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision (Jun): Consensus 8.00%, previous 8.50%. Shapes regional monetary policy, influencing Brazil’s markets.
Germany
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – GfK Consumer Climate (Jul): Actual -20.3, consensus -19.1, previous -20.0. Weak sentiment signals lower commodity demand.
United Kingdom
- 4:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM BRT – BoE Breeden Speaks: Actual TBD. Provides policy insights, impacting Brazilian agricultural exports.
- 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun): Consensus -24, previous -27. Reflects retail trends, affecting agribusiness exports.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks: Actual TBD. Signals monetary policy, influencing global risk appetite and Brazilian assets.
Eurozone
- 5:45 AM EST / 6:45 AM BRT – ECB’s De Guindos Speaks: Actual TBD. Offers policy cues, critical for Brazil’s commodity exports.
- 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – EU Leaders Summit: Actual TBD. Shapes EU economic policy, influencing Brazilian trade flows.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – ECB’s Schnabel Speaks: Actual TBD. Provides monetary policy insights, impacting export demand.
- 2:30 PM EST / 3:30 PM BRT – ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Actual TBD. Key for eurozone policy, affecting commodity trade sentiment.
United States
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Chicago Fed National Activity (May): Actual TBD, previous -0.25. Signals economic momentum, impacting Brazilian exports.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May): Consensus 0.1%, previous 0.2%. Reflects industrial demand, critical for metals.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Core PCE Prices (Q1): Consensus 3.40%, previous 2.60%. Tracks inflation, influencing commodity prices.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May): Consensus 8.6%, previous -6.3%. Signals industrial activity, impacting oil and metals.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – GDP (QoQ) (Q1): Consensus -0.2%, previous 2.4%. Gauges U.S. economic health, affecting Brazil’s exports.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): Consensus 3.7%, previous 2.3%. Reflects inflation trends, impacting trade sentiment.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Initial Jobless Claims: Consensus 244K, previous 245K. Signals labor market trends, influencing risk appetite.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – PCE Prices (Q1): Consensus 3.6%, previous 2.4%. Tracks inflation, affecting commodity demand.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May): Consensus 0.2%, previous -6.3%. Signals housing demand, impacting Brazilian copper.
- 11:00 AM EST / 12:00 PM BRT – KC Fed Composite Index (Jun): Actual TBD, previous -3. Reflects regional manufacturing, influencing commodity demand.
Canada
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, previous 4.31%. Signals consumer spending, impacting protein exports.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, previous -2.3%. Reflects trade activity, influencing Brazilian exports.
- 9:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – Budget Balance (Apr): Actual TBD, previous -23.88B. Tracks fiscal health, impacting regional sentiment.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
On June 25, 2025, the Ibovespa closed at 135,767.29 points, down 1.02%, with trading volumes dropping to R$2.54 billion, a 43% decline from the prior day.
The Brazilian real weakened, with the dollar rising 0.66% to R$5.5551. Fiscal concerns over the IOF tax hike debate fueled risk aversion. Vale and Petrobras dragged the index lower, with Vale hit by softer iron ore prices and global demand concerns, despite high trading volumes.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets traded near all-time highs on June 25, 2025, buoyed by easing Israel-Iran tensions. The S&P 500 fell 0.02 points to 6,092.16, 0.8% below its peak.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 106.59 points, or 0.2%, to 42,982.43, while the Nasdaq composite gained 61.02 points, or 0.3%, to 19,973.55.
The Russell 2000 fell 25.03 points, or 1.2%, to 2,136.18. Stable oil prices and Treasury yields fostered a cautious but resilient tone, impacting Brazilian commodity exports and the real.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real weakened on June 25, 2025, with the dollar closing at R$5.5551, up 0.66%, driven by fiscal uncertainty and global risk-off sentiment. Today’s BCB National Monetary Council Meeting and Mid-Month CPI will guide currency expectations.
Oil Prices
Oil prices stabilized on June 25, 2025, with Brent crude supported by strong U.S. demand after a $10 per barrel drop. This aids Petrobras’ revenues, though volatility persists. Today’s U.S. GDP and Mexico’s Interest Rate Decision will signal demand for Brazil’s energy sector.
Gold Prices
Gold held steady on June 25, 2025, supported by geopolitical risks and central bank demand, despite ETF outflows. This benefits Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale. Today’s German GfK Consumer Climate and ECB speeches will influence safe-haven flows.
Silver Prices
Silver traded above $36 per ounce on June 25, 2025, driven by tight supply and industrial demand. This supports Brazil’s mining exports. Today’s U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Canada’s Wholesale Sales will guide metal demand.
Copper Prices
Copper prices remained elevated on June 25, 2025, supported by tight supply and strong demand, despite policy headwinds. This aids Vale’s revenues. Today’s U.S. GDP and Mexico’s Trade Balance will clarify industrial demand.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin held near $106,000 on June 25, 2025, supported by ETF inflows and geopolitical calm. This bolsters Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc. Today’s U.S. GDP and UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey will influence risk appetite.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore stabilized at $94.25 per ton on June 25, 2025, despite weak Chinese demand, as traders assessed technical barriers. This supports Vale. Today’s U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Mexico’s Trade Balance will signal commodity demand.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s agribusiness sector, contributing 27.4% to GDP in 2024, faces headwinds from the 15% Selic rate and fiscal strains, with a R$104 billion deficit and 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio.
Rising imports and a deeper current account deficit in May add pressure. Today’s U.S. GDP, Mexico’s Trade Balance, and ECB speeches will shape export demand and currency stability for commodity-driven industries.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
EST is applied here for consistency, as requested, and is the standard for U.S. financial markets, influencing global trading schedules.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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