Gold Holds Steady as Geopolitical Risks and Central Bank Demand Offset ETF Outflows

Gold prices showed resilience over the past 24 hours, with spot gold trading at $3,336.80 per ounce early Thursday, June 26, 2025.

The market absorbed a recent wave of selling pressure triggered by a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Iran, but renewed skepticism about the truce’s durability kept safe-haven demand alive.

The yellow metal’s performance reflects a delicate balance between shifting investor sentiment, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and evolving macroeconomic signals.

Central banks remain a cornerstone of gold demand. According to Metals Focus, they are on track to purchase around 1,000 metric tons in 2025, marking a fourth consecutive year of significant accumulation.

This ongoing diversification away from the US dollar underscores concerns about erratic US fiscal policy, unpredictable trade measures, and the perceived instability of dollar-denominated assets.

These purchases, accounting for nearly a quarter of total global demand, have helped support prices even as investor flows into gold ETFs turned negative in May, with global outflows totaling $1.8 billion and holdings dropping by 19 tonnes.

The past day’s trading unfolded against a backdrop of cautious optimism. US consumer confidence data released Tuesday showed an unexpected decline, while market participants awaited Thursday’s GDP numbers and Friday’s PCE inflation report for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Gold Holds Steady Amid Policy Uncertainty

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks about the inflationary impact of higher tariffs and the possibility of rate cuts have added to the uncertainty. Lower rates would typically favor gold, but the market remains wary of shifting policy signals.

Technical analysis of the daily chart reveals a market at a crossroads. Gold continues to trade above its long-term trendlines, but short-term momentum has softened.

The 20- and 50-day moving averages now act as resistance, with recent price action slipping below these levels. The MACD indicator on the daily chart shows negative values and a declining trend.

Meanwhile, the RSI hovers just below 50, signaling a loss of bullish momentum but not yet confirming a bearish reversal. Bollinger Bands indicate reduced volatility, with prices consolidating near the lower band, suggesting a potential pause rather than a breakdown.

On the 4-hour chart, the picture is nuanced. Gold recently bounced from support near $3,321, and the MACD histogram is contracting, hinting at a possible short-term recovery.

The RSI has moved up from oversold territory, but remains below the neutral threshold, reflecting ongoing caution among traders. Key support levels remain at $3,325 and $3,291, while resistance is seen at $3,356 and $3,366.

In summary, gold’s recent stability stems from persistent central bank buying and ongoing geopolitical risks, even as ETF investors reduce exposure and technical signals turn mixed.

The market’s next move will likely depend on upcoming US economic data and any escalation in geopolitical tensions. For now, gold remains anchored by its role as a hedge against uncertainty, but the path forward looks increasingly data-driven and sensitive to shifts in both fundamentals and sentiment.

LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.