Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for June 25, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are set for a pivotal session today, June 25, 2025, fueled by a robust global economic agenda and domestic indicators shaping market sentiment.
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) held the Selic rate at 15%, as per the latest Copom minutes, signaling the end of monetary tightening amid persistent inflation and uneven economic activity.
This supports the Brazilian real, which closed at R$5.52, but high borrowing costs challenge sectors like retail and construction. Today’s economic events, both domestic and global, will drive expectations for commodity demand, currency stability, and investor confidence.
These factors are critical for Brazil’s export-driven economy. Domestically, Brazil’s Current Account and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) data will reveal external sector health, influencing the real’s stability and fiscal outlook amid a 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio and R$104 billion deficit.
Federal Tax Revenue and Foreign Exchange Flows will further gauge fiscal and capital flow trends. Globally, key events include U.S. Building Permits, New Home Sales, and Crude Oil Inventories, which will signal demand for Brazil’s oil and metals.
French Consumer Confidence and Spanish GDP in the Eurozone will reflect economic health, impacting Brazil’s commodity exports. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and German Buba Mauderer’s speeches will provide monetary policy cues, shaping global risk appetite.
These events are crucial as the Ibovespa, up 0.45% yesterday, navigates commodity price swings and geopolitical calm following the Israel-Iran ceasefire.
Economic Agenda
Brazil
- 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Current Account (USD) (May): Consensus -2.80B, previous -1.35B. A wider deficit could weaken the real, reflecting external imbalances.
- 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Foreign Direct Investment (USD) (May): Consensus 4.50B, previous 5.49B. Lower FDI may signal investor caution, impacting infrastructure and currency stability.
- 10:30 AM EST / 11:30 AM BRT – Federal Tax Revenue (May): Previous 261.30B. Tracks fiscal capacity, critical amid high public debt and deficit concerns.
- 01:30 PM EST / 02:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows: Previous -0.092B. Reflects capital flow trends, influencing the real and market sentiment.
United Kingdom
- 00:00 AM EST / 01:00 AM BRT – Car Registration (YoY) (May): Actual 1.6%, previous -10.4%. Rising demand supports Brazilian agricultural exports.
Eurozone
- 02:45 AM EST / 03:45 AM BRT – French Consumer Confidence (Jun): Actual 88, consensus 89, previous 88. Low confidence signals muted demand for Brazilian commodities.
- 03:00 AM EST / 04:00 AM BRT – Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q1): Actual 0.6%, consensus 0.6%, previous 0.7%. Steady growth supports commodity trade.
- 03:00 AM EST / 04:00 AM BRT – Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q1): Actual 2.8%, consensus 2.8%, previous 3.3%. Solid growth bolsters export demand.
- 05:55 AM EST / 06:55 AM BRT – German Buba Mauderer Speaks: Policy signals will influence Eurozone sentiment and Brazilian exports.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – German Buba Mauderer Speaks: Further insights will guide commodity trade flows.
United States
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Building Permits (May): Consensus 1.393M, previous 1.422M. Signals construction activity, impacting Brazilian metal exports.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – Fed Chair Powell Testifies: Policy signals will shape global risk appetite and commodity prices.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – New Home Sales (May): Consensus 694K, previous 743K. Weaker sales may reduce demand for Brazilian materials.
- 10:30 AM EST / 11:30 AM BRT – Crude Oil Inventories: Consensus -1.200M, previous -11.473M. Reflects oil demand, critical for Petrobras.
Japan
- 01:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM BRT – Leading Index (Apr): Actual 104.2, consensus 103.4, previous 108.1. Resilient index supports commodity demand optimism.
Switzerland
- 05:55 AM EST / 06:55 AM BRT – ZEW Expectations (Jun): Previous -22.0. Gauges investor sentiment, impacting Brazilian equities.
Canada
- 11:00 AM EST / 12:00 PM BRT – Budget Balance (Apr): Previous -23.88B. Reflects fiscal health, influencing trade sentiment.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Bovespa Index closed at 137,164.61 on June 24, 2025, up 0.45%, breaking a four-day losing streak as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran eased global risk aversion.
Financials and cyclical stocks drove gains, while energy lagged due to falling oil prices. The dollar rose to R$5.52 against the real, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
The Copom minutes confirmed the Selic rate at 15%, highlighting persistent inflation and mixed economic signals.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets rallied on June 24, 2025, as falling oil prices raised hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid de-escalating Israel-Iran tensions. The S&P 500 rose 67.01 points, or 1.1%, to 6,092.18, nearing its record high.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 507.24 points, or 1.2%, to 43,089.02, while the Nasdaq composite jumped 281.56 points, or 1.4%, to 19,912.53.
The Russell 2000 rose 28.53 points, or 1.3%, to 2,161.21. Easing oil prices, down 6%, supported market optimism, with implications for Brazilian commodity exports.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real closed at R$5.52 against the dollar on June 24, 2025, as investors assessed the BCB’s signal of paused monetary tightening. Today’s Current Account and FDI data will influence currency stability, critical for import costs and export competitiveness.
Oil Prices
Oil prices stabilized on June 24, 2025, after a 6% drop, with Brent crude near $70 per barrel, driven by the Israel-Iran ceasefire and rising U.S. supply.
This pressures Petrobras’ revenues, though Brazil’s oil exports remain resilient. Today’s U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will provide demand signals.
Gold Prices
Gold prices were not explicitly updated for June 24, but recent trends suggest stability near $3,350 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand. Today’s Fed Chair Powell testimony and German Buba Mauderer speeches will influence sentiment, impacting Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale.
Silver Prices
Silver traded near $35.20 per ounce on June 24, 2025, facing profit-taking but supported by supply deficits. This affects Vale’s export revenues. Today’s U.S. Building Permits and French Consumer Confidence will guide industrial demand.
Copper Prices
Copper held steady at $4.60 per pound on June 24, 2025, balancing surplus signals and technical support. Brazil’s copper exports face challenges, with Vale impacted. Today’s U.S. Building Permits and Spanish GDP will clarify demand trends.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin held near $106,000 on June 24, 2025, driven by ETF inflows and macro optimism. This supports Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc. Today’s Fed Chair Powell testimony and U.S. New Home Sales will influence risk appetite.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices remained flat at $93 per ton on June 24, 2025, pressured by weak Chinese demand and ample supply. This challenges Vale, though long-term demand persists. Today’s Spanish GDP and U.S. Building Permits will signal industrial trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s agribusiness and mining sectors, key contributors to GDP, face challenges from the 15% Selic rate and global trade uncertainties. Inflation at 5.2% and fiscal pressures (R$104 billion deficit, 76.2% debt-to-GDP) weigh on growth.
Today’s U.S. Building Permits, French Consumer Confidence, and Brazil’s Current Account data will shape export demand and currency stability, critical for commodity-driven industries.
Company Updates
Petrobras’ Ethanol Investment: Petrobras plans a R$2.2 billion investment in ethanol, aiming to diversify its energy portfolio. Today’s U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will influence energy sector sentiment.
IRB Brasil’s Profit Growth: IRB Brasil reported higher profits in Q1 2025, driven by investments, but faces premium weakness and rising claims. Today’s Brazil FDI data will signal investment trends.
Raízen and Azul: A U.S. court ordered Raízen to maintain fuel supply to Azul amid the airline’s debt crisis. Today’s U.S. New Home Sales will impact aviation sentiment.
Votorantim’s U.S. Expansion: Votorantim plans a major U.S. real estate investment push, diversifying its portfolio. Today’s U.S. Building Permits will guide construction demand.
Copel’s Share Simplification: Copel is restructuring its shares to attract investors, boosting liquidity. Today’s Brazil Foreign Exchange Flows will influence investor sentiment.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5.
EST is used here for consistency, aligning with U.S. financial market schedules, which influence global trading. Brazil’s BRT (Brasília Time, UTC-3) is two hours ahead of EST.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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