Iron Ore Market Holds Steady at $94.25 as Traders Weigh Weak Demand and Technical Barriers

Official data shows the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures trading at $94.25 per tonne on June 26, 2025.

The market has seen little movement over the last 24 hours, reflecting a cautious stance among traders as Chinese demand remains subdued and technical resistance levels continue to cap any attempts at a rebound.

Volumes on the futures market reached 406 contracts, with open interest at nearly 330,000, indicating that most participants are holding their positions rather than betting on a near-term breakout.

The physical market echoed this hesitancy, with spot trades reported near the futures price and no significant changes in procurement from Chinese steel mills. Fundamentals remain weak.

Chinese steel production has not picked up, and the property sector continues to contract. Port inventories in China have drawn down slightly but remain elevated, signaling that supply still outweighs demand.

Major exporters from Australia and Brazil have maintained robust shipments, and no major supply disruptions have emerged to shift the balance. Technical analysis reinforces the market’s cautious tone.

Iron Ore Prices Remain Under Pressure Amid Bearish Technicals

On the daily chart, the price sits below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, all of which are sloping downward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 34.10, indicating oversold conditions but not yet triggering a reversal.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, with both the MACD and signal lines below zero and the histogram showing only slight improvement.

Bollinger Bands place the price near the lower band, suggesting persistent downward momentum but also highlighting the risk of a short-term technical bounce.

The four-hour chart offers little relief. The price remains below all major moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud, confirming the prevailing bearish trend.

The RSI at 39.56 hints at minor stabilization, but the MACD remains flat and negative, showing a lack of buying conviction. No clear breakout or reversal pattern has emerged, and the market continues to respect resistance levels near $94.60 and $95.18.

Macroeconomic factors provide little support. The Chinese government has not announced new stimulus measures, and global steel prices remain under pressure.

Other metals such as copper and silver have posted modest gains, but these have not translated into stronger iron ore demand. The real story behind the figures is one of a market trapped between weak fundamentals and technical barriers.

Traders are reluctant to take large positions, waiting for a catalyst that could tip the balance. Until Chinese demand shows clear signs of recovery or a supply shock emerges, iron ore prices are likely to remain rangebound.

Rallies are viewed as opportunities for sellers to re-enter the market. The market’s current posture reflects a pragmatic, mercantile approach, focused on hard data and technical signals rather than speculative optimism.

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