Copper Holds Range as Market Balances Surplus Signals and Technical Barriers

Copper prices entered Wednesday holding a tight range, as official data and technical indicators signaled a market at a crossroads. The London Metal Exchange (LME) cash copper settled at $9,930.50 per metric ton on June 24, with the three-month contract at $9,735.00.

In the United States, COMEX closed Tuesday at $4.8670 per pound, up $0.0240 from the previous session, while spot copper quoted at $4.88 per pound early Wednesday, reflecting a 0.15% dip from the previous day.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) tracked similar stability, with contracts closing at 78,300 yuan per ton. The past 24 hours saw copper trading in a narrow band, as traders digested fresh macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran eased risk premiums across global markets. US equities opened higher, and haven flows into gold and the dollar reversed, with the US dollar index slipping below 98.0 and 10-year Treasury yields falling toward 4.3%.

However, US consumer sentiment weakened, with the Conference Board’s Confidence Index dropping to 93.0 in June, its lowest in years. This signaled caution among American households and raised questions about the durability of industrial demand.

Copper’s fundamental picture remains mixed. Official LME inventory data show stocks at 94,675 metric tons, continuing a steady drawdown since May. In contrast, US inventories have climbed, as domestic buyers stockpile metal ahead of potential tariffs.

Strong ore output from South America has contributed to a global surplus, with the International Copper Study Group forecasting a 289,000-tonne excess for 2025, more than double last year’s figure.

However, Chinese demand has shown resilience, supported by government stimulus and ongoing industrial upgrades, even as the People’s Bank of China cut key lending rates to spur factory activity.

Technical analysis of the four-hour and daily copper charts reveals a market lacking clear direction. On the four-hour chart, copper trades above a rising trendline, with prices hugging the upper Bollinger Band.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61, suggesting mild overbought conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a positive but flattening histogram, indicating waning short-term momentum.

The daily chart presents a similar picture. Copper remains above key moving averages, with the RSI at 58, below overbought territory. The MACD is positive but not accelerating, and prices approach resistance near $5.00 per pound.

Bollinger Bands show copper pressing against the upper band, but without a decisive breakout. Volumes remain steady on major exchanges, but the LME cash-to-three-month spread weakened to $98 per ton, suggesting softer underlying support.

ETF flows and speculative positioning have not shown major shifts. Copper’s story today is one of balance. A global surplus and strong supply cap upside, while tight exchange inventories and Chinese demand lend support.

Technicals reflect this indecision, with neither bulls nor bears in clear control. Traders now watch for fresh catalysts, particularly from US tariff policy and Chinese industrial activity, to break the market from its current range.

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