Iron Ore Prices Stagnate as Weak Chinese Demand and Ample Supply Dominate Market

Official Singapore Exchange data and TradingView charts confirm that iron ore futures for 62% Fe CFR China traded at $94.35 per ton on June 25, 2025. The market barely moved in the past 24 hours, with prices fluctuating between $94.21 and $94.45.

Volatility stayed low and trading volumes subdued, showing that traders remain cautious and reluctant to take new positions. Technical analysis of the four-hour and daily charts reveals a persistent downtrend.

On both timeframes, prices sit below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, which cluster between $94.55 and $97.56. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 40.91 on the four-hour chart and 34.84 on the daily, both near oversold territory.

The MACD remains negative and flat, confirming a lack of strong momentum in either direction. Bollinger Bands continue to contract around the current price, indicating ongoing downward pressure but also the risk of a technical bounce if a catalyst emerges.

Fundamental factors continue to weigh on sentiment. Chinese steel demand remains soft, with official data showing only modest output growth and high port inventories. The latest figures report 146.85 million tons of iron ore at Chinese ports, up 28% year-on-year.

This persistent oversupply signals that mills focus on cost control and favor lower-grade feedstocks. Supply from Australia and Brazil remains steady, with no major disruptions reported.

The recent downgrade of Pilbara Blend fines quality by Rio Tinto has not offset broader demand weakness. Macroeconomic factors also play a role. The property sector in China, a key driver of steel and iron ore demand, continues to struggle.

Real estate investment fell 10.1% year-on-year through the first nine months of 2024, and new construction starts contracted 22.2% in the same period. These figures highlight ongoing challenges for the world’s largest iron ore consumer.

Steel mills have shifted purchasing patterns toward just-in-time buying, reducing the urgency for bulk purchases and limiting price volatility. ETF flows and open interest on iron ore futures remain steady but cautious.

There is no evidence of significant inflows or outflows, reflecting the wait-and-see approach among institutional investors. Trading volumes across major exchanges also show no decisive directional moves, as participants await clearer demand signals from China.

The technical setup suggests continued range-bound trading until fundamental catalysts emerge. Support levels appear at $93.22, with resistance near $94.75 and $97.35. The market’s bias remains neutral to bearish, with oversold signals on the daily chart but no strong reversal pattern.

In summary, iron ore prices hold near multi-month lows as oversupply and weak Chinese demand persist. The market lacks conviction, and both technical and fundamental indicators suggest that only a significant shift in Chinese policy or a supply shock could break the current stalemate.

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