Brazil November Rate Forecasts Split

BRAZIL ECONOMY · INTEREST RATES

Brazil’s central bank decides on interest rates on Wednesday, and the economists it surveys cannot agree on whether to cut. Its headline survey says one last cut is coming, but the freshest forecasts say no.

Brazil’s forecasters have stopped agreeing on the one number that matters this week. The latest Focus survey, the central bank’s weekly poll of forecasters, uses data to Friday 30 October and points to one last cut in the key rate.

The key rate, the Selic, is the rate that Brazil’s central bank, the Banco Central do Brasil, sets to steer inflation in Brazil’s economy. Its rate-setting committee, Copom, meets on Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 November, and the Selic stands at 13.75% a year.

What Does the Central Bank Survey Say?

Focus polls banks, funds and economists every week. The median, or middle forecast, for the November meeting is 13.50% across 139 forecasts of the past 30 days.

That is a quarter-point below today’s 13.75%. The same median sees no move in December, January, March or April, with cuts returning at the June 2027 meeting.

The Selic has fallen from 15% in five quarter-point cuts this year. On this reading Wednesday would be the sixth and last for a while.

Why Do the Freshest Forecasts Disagree?

The central bank also publishes a quicker measure, using only forecasts updated in the last five business days. For the same meeting its median is 13.75%, so no cut, from 105 forecasters.

That fresher group sees no change in December or January either, then cuts starting around March. Both groups see the Selic at 12.50% at the end of 2027.

The pull toward patience is inflation. The 2027 inflation forecast in the survey rose to 4.76% from 4.34% a week earlier, and the 2026 forecast edged up to 5.22% from 5.19%.

The official target is 3% with a tolerance of 1.5 points either side, so the ceiling is 4.5%. IPCA, Brazil’s consumer price index, rose 4.58% in the 12 months to September, according to the central bank’s series; our Focus inflation guide explains the survey.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket lists a market on Wednesday’s decision with US$137,344 traded. At 12:13 p.m. ET on 3 November it priced no change at 85.5% and a quarter-point cut at 14.0%.

For the December meeting it priced no change at 75.0% and a cut at 23.0%, with US$52,546 traded. Prices are bets, not polls, and here they side with the fresher forecasts.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

The central bank’s daily series shows the dollar jumping from 5.0377 reais on Friday 23 October to 5.5007 on Monday 26 October. It stood at 5.4935 on Tuesday 3 November, 9% above its level 11 days earlier.

A hold keeps Brazil’s 13.75% rate high, which rewards investors who hold reais, while a surprise cut would shrink that reward. Savers who earn the Selic on Brazilian bonds gain from a pause, while borrowers and rate-sensitive companies such as retailers and homebuilders lose.

US holders of American depositary receipts (ADRs) in Petrobras (PBR, the oil producer), Vale (VALE, the miner), Itaú (ITUB, a leading bank) and Nubank (NU, the digital lender) feel the rate through the real; see our guides to the real-to-dollar rate and the Brazilian stock market.

What Is Not Known

The survey data ends on Friday 30 October, before the news of decision week. Nobody outside the committee knows its vote, and the wording of its statement may matter as much as the rate.

Politics adds noise. Related reading: our earlier reports on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s allies and the bank and the rate-cap debate.

What to Watch Next

Wednesday 4 November, 4:30 p.m. ET: Copom announces its decision. Monday 9 November: the next Focus survey.

Tuesday 10 November, 6:00 a.m. ET: the central bank publishes the meeting minutes. Wednesday 9 December: the final decision of the year, where a cut would confirm the survey and a hold would confirm the bettors.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Brazil cut interest rates on 4 November?

Forecasts are split. The central bank’s 30-day survey median expects a cut to 13.50%, while the five-day median and Polymarket (85.5%) expect no change.

What is Brazil’s Selic rate today?

The Selic is 13.75% a year, according to the central bank. It has fallen from 15% in five quarter-point cuts in 2026.

Sources: Banco Central do Brasil, Focus survey and market expectations system (data to 30 October 2026); Banco Central do Brasil, Selic history and Copom calendar; Banco Central do Brasil, time series 13522 (IPCA, 12 months) and 1 (dollar); Polymarket, Bank of Brazil decision in November (Brazil’s central bank; accessed 3 November 2026, 12:13 p.m. ET).