UNITED STATES · PREDICTION MARKETS
Key Facts
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a crypto-based market, gives 65% to Donald Trump being impeached by 30 June 2027, up 19 points in 24 hours (4 November, 6:30 a.m. ET).
- What happened Democrats won the House in Tuesday’s midterms, the elections held halfway through a president’s term. A House majority can impeach a president, meaning formally charge him.
- The catch Removing a president needs two-thirds of senators present. Markets price removal before 2028 at only 18.6%.
- Volume The 30 June 2027 market has traded just US$7,673 in total, so it is thinly traded.
- What to watch Whether Democratic leaders open impeachment or stay with investigations when the new House sits on 3 January 2027.
Traders now expect Democrats to try to impeach President Donald Trump within about eight months. On Polymarket, a crypto-based market where users bet real money, the odds of an impeachment by 30 June 2027 rose from about 46% to 65% in 24 hours.
The move follows Democratic wins in the 3 November midterms, which gave the party control of the House of Representatives. For US readers, a second impeachment fight would shape the legislative agenda, markets and the 2028 race.
What the Markets Are Saying
Polymarket’s “Will Trump be impeached by…?” event lists three deadlines. Prices below were read on 4 November 2026 at about 6:30 a.m. ET.
- By 30 June 2027: 65.0%, up 19.0 points in 24 hours and 18.5 points in a week.
- By 31 December 2027: 73.5%, up 8.5 points in 24 hours.
- By 31 December 2026: 3.8%, little changed. The new House is scheduled to be sworn in on 3 January 2027.
- Impeached before his term ends: about 80%, a separate market with US$117,620 in total volume.
- Impeached and removed before 2028: 18.6%, with US$15,188 in total volume. That looks high, because removal needs 67 senators, and so thin a market may be distorted.
Trading is thin. The whole event has seen about US$18,300 in the last 24 hours, and the 30 June 2027 market has traded only US$7,673 since it opened. Almost all of the event’s US$1.1 million volume sits in the 2026 deadline.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
We found no open Kalshi market on this question. Kalshi is a US exchange regulated in the US by the CFTC, the federal derivatives regulator. Prices on both platforms are bets, not polls.
Why the Odds Moved
Projections on election night showed Democrats winning a clear House majority, well above the 218 of 435 seats needed. The party was also projected to win the Senate.
We found no trigger for the jump beyond the election result. In January 2026 Trump warned House Republicans that he would be impeached if they lost the House, and he said Democrats would find a reason to impeach him. In September, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said he had not ruled out impeachment if his party won.
Representative Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, which investigates the executive branch, said “lawyer up” on election night, a warning that Democrats plan to investigate Trump’s administration and family businesses. He did not announce an impeachment.
Live Market IntelligenceCrypto — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Crypto — Live Market Board
+0.67%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 80,543 | +0.67% | -29.41% | 80,007 | 80,550 | 79,380 | 21,816,416,256 |
| ETH | 2,348 | +1.18% | -43.00% | 2,320 | 2,349 | 2,295 | 8,316,267,520 |
| SOL | 100.98 | +0.22% | -49.19% | 100.75 | 101.04 | 99.17 | 2,110,777,984 |
| XRP | 1.32 | +1.04% | -49.89% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1,574,615,552 |
| BNB | 750.98 | +1.29% | -34.10% | 741.42 | 751.10 | 733.56 | 1,470,316,160 |
| ADA | 0.21 | -0.30% | -69.21% | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 190,120,672 |
| DOGE | 0.08 | +0.78% | -60.98% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 441,746,112 |
| AVAX | 8.84 | -1.36% | -56.54% | 8.96 | 8.96 | 8.67 | 289,961,824 |
| LINK | 11.47 | +0.80% | -37.04% | 11.38 | 11.47 | 11.23 | 248,509,440 |
| DOT | 0.99 | -2.05% | -68.52% | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 109,918,912 |
| LTC | 56.59 | -0.13% | -43.06% | 56.66 | 56.87 | 55.70 | 169,852,160 |
| BCH | 290.36 | +3.57% | -47.81% | 280.36 | 292.52 | 277.47 | 195,939,216 |
| TRX | 0.33 | -0.51% | +9.69% | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 371,519,040 |
| XLM | 0.17 | +0.21% | -47.60% | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 107,134,680 |
| HBAR | 0.08 | -1.56% | -58.82% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 55,674,584 |
| NEAR | 4.62 | +2.60% | +97.50% | 4.50 | 4.64 | 4.39 | 630,712,192 |
| ATOM | 1.61 | -1.48% | -49.28% | 1.64 | 1.64 | 1.60 | 30,012,314 |
| AAVE | 132.37 | -2.36% | -43.78% | 135.57 | 135.87 | 129.56 | 246,790,448 |
How Impeachment Works
The Constitution gives the House the sole power to impeach, which works like an indictment and needs a simple majority. The Senate then holds a trial, and removing a president requires two-thirds of senators present.
Trump was impeached by the House twice, in December 2019 and January 2021, and the Senate acquitted him both times. That history explains why traders price impeachment far above removal.
What It Means for US Readers
An impeachment fight would absorb Congress’s time before the 2028 campaign. Budget talks, tariff legislation and nominations would compete with hearings and subpoenas for attention.
For investors, a Democratic Congress facing a Republican president usually narrows the odds of big new laws.
What It Means for Latin America and Africa
Garcia has pointed to abuses by the Department of Homeland Security and its deportation agency, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, as an area to investigate, and a House majority would give Democrats subpoena power. That matters in Latin America, where deportations from the United States affect families and the governments that receive them. See our reading of what the midterms mean for Latin America.
We found no market evidence yet of a direct effect on Africa. Our midterm results briefing covers both regions.
What Is Not Known
No Democratic leader has said the House will open impeachment proceedings. It is not known which grounds a House majority would cite, or how many Democrats would back a vote.
It is also unclear how much of the 19-point jump reflects new information and how much a few trades in a small market.
For more market moves, see our Prediction Markets hub, and our report on Democrats winning the Senate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are prediction markets saying about a Trump impeachment?
On Polymarket, traders gave 65% to an impeachment by 30 June 2027 and 73.5% by 31 December 2027 on 4 November 2026. The June figure rose 19 points in 24 hours.
Why did the odds jump after the midterms?
Democrats won the House, and a House majority can vote to impeach. No Democratic leader has announced an impeachment plan, so the jump reflects traders’ own judgment.
Would an impeachment remove Trump from office?
Not by itself. The House impeaches by majority vote, but the Senate needs two-thirds of senators present to convict and remove. A Polymarket market on removal before 2028 stood at 18.6%.
Are prediction markets a reliable forecast?
They are real-money bets, not polls, and thinly traded markets can swing on small orders. The June 2027 market had only US$7,673 in total volume, so treat the move with caution.
Sources: Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 4 November 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET); US House and Senate election projections, 3–4 November 2026; public statements by Rep. Hakeem Jeffries and Rep. Robert Garcia; US Constitution, Article I, Section 2 and Section 3.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief