BRAZIL · ECONOMY · INFLATION FORECAST
Key Facts
- —The forecast Economists in the central bank’s Focus survey expect Brazilian inflation of 5.22% in 2026 and 4.30% in 2027, and 3.79% in 2028 (published 13 October 2026).
- —The target The goal is 3.0% with a tolerance band of 1.5% to 4.5%, and the latest 12-month rate is 4.58% for September, above the band for the first month since June.
- —The central bank The Copom, the bank’s rate-setting committee, cut the Selic to 13.75% on 16 September and projects 5.2% for 2026, 3.9% for 2027 and 3.2% for early 2028.
- —Why it matters Higher prices keep Brazilian interest rates high, which supports the real but raises costs for rents, loans and everyday spending.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket traders put the most likely 2026 inflation range at 5.00% to 5.49%, with a 48.5% price (14 October 2026, 03:50 ET), as detailed below.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 86.2% · Lula 13.5% (US$181 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 14%
As of 14 October, 4:20 am ET (09:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil’s inflation is forecast at 5.22% for 2026 and 4.30% for 2027 in the Focus survey, the central bank’s weekly poll of about 144 banks, funds and research firms. Inflation here means the IPCA, the Broad National Consumer Price Index that the statistics agency IBGE publishes each month.
The 2026 forecast sits 0.72 percentage points above the 4.5% ceiling of the official target. It has risen for four weeks in a row, and it shapes how fast Brazil can cut interest rates, which in turn moves the real against the US dollar.
This page keeps the latest forecasts in one place, in plain English, and we update it after each new Focus survey, Copom decision and IPCA release. It answers the question foreign residents and investors ask most: how high will prices go in Brazil?
Updated 14 October 2026 · Next Focus survey: Monday, 19 October
In Short
- The forecast: the Focus median is 5.22% for 2026 (up from 5.01% a week earlier), 4.30% for 2027 and 3.79% for 2028.
- The target: 3.0% with a band of 1.5% to 4.5%. The 12-month IPCA was 4.58% in September, from 4.22% in August.
- The central bank: the Selic stands at 13.75% after five cuts of 0.25 points in 2026, and the Copom sees 3.2% inflation in early 2028.
- The bets: Polymarket gives an 89.5% chance of another 0.25-point cut on 4 November. These are bets, not forecasts.
- What is next: the October mid-month IPCA-15 on 23 October, the Copom decision on 4 November and the October IPCA on 12 November.
Brazil’s Inflation Forecast for 2026
The Focus median for 2026 inflation is 5.22%, from the survey with data up to Friday, 9 October, which the central bank published on Tuesday, 13 October 2026. A week earlier it was 5.01%, and on 11 September it was 4.90%.
Four straight weekly increases have pushed the forecast further above the 4.5% ceiling. The median is the middle answer, so half of the 144 institutions expect more than 5.22% and half expect less.
Focus Survey Forecasts for 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029
The Focus survey asks banks and research firms for their expectations every week. The central bank publishes the median, the middle answer, for each year ahead.
Expectations beyond 2026 are calmer. The 2027 forecast of 4.30% sits inside the target band but above its 3.0% centre, and the 2029 forecast of 3.50% is the closest to the goal.
The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate. Analysts now expect it at 13.25% in December, which would mean two more cuts of 0.25 points from today’s 13.75%.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-1.04%
206,887.52
-1.04%
66,965.15
+0.33%
11,020.01
-0.21%
2,869,151
+0.00%
2,570.34
+1.55%
60,645.95
-0.22%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 206,887.52 | -1.04% | +21.85% | 209,066.90 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
What the Central Bank Projects
The Copom, the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, cut the Selic from 14.00% to 13.75% on Wednesday, 16 September 2026. It was the fifth cut of 0.25 points this year, and Brazilian media report the vote was unanimous.
The Copom’s own projection for inflation is 5.2% for 2026 and 3.9% for 2027, based on its reference scenario. For the first quarter of 2028, the horizon the bank cares most about, it projects 3.2%.
The bank said risks to inflation remain higher than usual, with an upward bias, and described a scenario of unanchored expectations that calls for caution. Unanchored means that economists no longer trust inflation to return to the 3.0% goal on its own.
In its quarterly report of 24 September, the central bank put the chance that inflation ends 2026 above the 4.5% ceiling at 90%, up from 79% in the previous report. That figure is not the chance of missing the target, which requires six months in a row outside the band.
The next Copom meeting is on 3 and 4 November 2026, with the decision on the evening of 4 November. It will be the first rate decision after the presidential runoff on 25 October.
Latest Inflation Data: The IPCA for September
The IPCA rose 0.82% in September 2026, the statistics agency IBGE reported on Friday, 9 October. That is the biggest monthly rise since March, against 0.48% in September 2025.
Prices rose 4.58% over the 12 months to September, up from 4.22% in August, and 3.95% since the start of the year. The 12-month rate is back above the 4.5% ceiling after two months inside the band.
Housing was the biggest driver, with a rise of 2.31%, as household electricity bills jumped 7.98% when a credit on Itaipu hydropower bills ended. Airfares rose 9.66%, and food and drink prices rose 0.83% after three months of decline.
Brazil’s Inflation Target and Tolerance Band
Brazil’s inflation target is 3.0%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points either side, so the band runs from 1.5% to 4.5%. The National Monetary Council set it in Resolution 5,141 of 26 June 2024, and since January 2025 it is a continuous target.
A continuous target is judged every month, not only in December. The target counts as missed when the 12-month rate stays outside the band for six months in a row, and then the central bank governor must write an open letter to the finance minister.
That happened once, in June 2025, when inflation was above 4.5% for a sixth straight month, and Governor Gabriel Galípolo published his letter on 10 July 2025. The rate returned to the band in November 2025.
In 2026 the rate has been above 4.5% in May, June and September, but never for six months in a row. We found no new letter this year.
What Brazilian Inflation Means for Foreigners
Rents are the first place readers feel it. Brazilian leases are adjusted once a year with a price index, usually the IGP-M or the IPCA, and the IGP-M, a general price index published by the Fundação Getulio Vargas, rose 1.57% in September after three months of decline.
The real is the second. On 13 October one US dollar bought R$5.03 (EODHD closing rate), and Focus analysts expect R$5.15 at year-end, so they see a slightly weaker real by December.
Interest rates are the third. With the Selic at 13.75% and inflation expected at 5.22%, the gap between the two is about 8.5 percentage points, our own simple calculation, so savers in reais earn a high return above inflation.
For a foreign resident paid in dollars or euros, higher Brazilian inflation erodes the exchange-rate advantage over time. Prices of food, power and flights are rising faster than the central bank wants.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets let traders buy contracts that pay US$1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 47 cents reads as a 47% chance. On Polymarket, the market “Brazil Annual Inflation 2026” (US$162,609 traded) gave 48.5% to a 2026 rate of 5.00% to 5.49%, 21.9% to 5.50% to 5.99%, and 20.6% to 4.50% to 4.99%.
A second Polymarket market on the Brazilian central bank’s November decision, listed there as “Bank of Brazil” (US$57,027 traded), gave 89.5% to a cut of 0.25 points and 4.8% to no change. Prices were read on 14 October 2026 at 03:50 Eastern time, and they are bets, not forecasts.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Dates to Watch
The IPCA-15 is a preview of monthly inflation that covers prices from about mid-month to mid-month. IBGE normally publishes both IPCA figures at 9 a.m. Brasília time.
What Is Not Known
No one yet knows if the September jump in electricity prices is a one-off or the start of a longer rise. The end of the Itaipu credit explains part of it, and the next IPCA releases will show whether food and flights follow.
The runoff for president on 25 October 2026 adds a second unknown, because markets may move with the result. We do not forecast how the vote will change inflation expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Brazil’s inflation forecast for 2026?
The central bank’s Focus survey of 13 October 2026 puts 2026 inflation at 5.22%, from 5.01% a week earlier. The Copom’s own projection is 5.2% for the end of 2026.
What is Brazil’s inflation forecast for 2027?
The Focus median for 2027 is 4.30%, which is inside the 1.5% to 4.5% target band but above the 3.0% goal. The Copom projects 3.9% for 2027.
What is the IPCA and what is the Focus survey?
The IPCA is Brazil’s official consumer price index, published monthly by the statistics agency IBGE. The Focus survey is the central bank’s weekly poll of economists, and its median is the standard market forecast.
What is Brazil’s inflation target?
The target is 3.0% with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points either side, so inflation should stay between 1.5% and 4.5%. It counts as missed after six straight months outside that band.
Will the Brazilian central bank cut interest rates again?
The Selic is 13.75% after a cut on 16 September, and Focus economists expect 13.25% by December. Polymarket traders gave 89.5% to a further 0.25-point cut at the 4 November meeting, and these are bets, not forecasts.
For the weekly numbers behind this page, see our report on the latest Focus survey. For the vote that may move markets, see our runoff guide and the poll tracker.
Sources: Banco Central do Brasil, Focus survey, bulletin of 13 October 2026 (data of 9 October); Banco Central do Brasil, Copom statement, 281st meeting, 16 September 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, Copom minutes, 22 September 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, Monetary Policy Report, September 2026; IBGE, IPCA for September 2026, 9 October 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, time series 433, 13522 and 189 (IPCA monthly, IPCA 12-month, IGP-M); National Monetary Council, Resolution 5,141, 26 June 2024; InfoMoney, Focus survey, 13 October 2026; Agência Brasil, central bank report, 24 September 2026; Polymarket, Brazil Annual Inflation 2026; EODHD economic calendar and USD/BRL data.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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