BRAZIL ECONOMY · INTEREST RATES
Key Facts
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- What is happening Brazil’s central bank committee (Copom) sets the Selic rate today around 4:30 p.m. ET; a pause at 13.75% looks likely.
- The numbers Inflation is 4.58% against a 3% goal, and one US dollar costs R$5.49, up 1.3% since 30 October.
- Why it matters A pause keeps borrowing costs high, which tends to support the real but slows growth.
- What to watch The Copom statement today, the central bank’s weekly Focus survey of analysts on Monday 9 November, the December meeting.
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives 86.2% to no change and 13.5% to a quarter-point cut (4 November, 3:50 a.m. ET).
Brazil’s central bank is expected to stop cutting interest rates today, after a weaker real and stubborn inflation shifted forecasts.
Brazil’s central bank walks into a tense meeting with its currency sliding and its rate-cutting streak on the line. Its rate committee, known as Copom, announces its decision on the Selic, the benchmark interest rate, about 4:30 p.m. ET today, Wednesday 4 November 2026.
The Selic stands at 13.75%, and Brazilian financial media and traders now expect no change. A pause would end five quarter-point cuts in a row; see our overview of the Brazil economy.
Why Is a Pause the Likely Call?
Two things moved against the rate cutters. The real weakened, and inflation is still above target.
The central bank’s official rate was 5.4935 reais per US dollar on Tuesday 3 November, up from 5.4212 on Friday 30 October. That makes the real 1.3% weaker than on Friday.
Stocks fell too. The Ibovespa, the main index of Brazil’s B3 stock exchange, closed at 165,529 on Tuesday.
That is 6.3% below Monday 26 October, itself the day of a 13.9% crash after President Lula’s re-election, and 19.3% below Friday 23 October. Inflation, measured by the IPCA consumer price index from the statistics agency IBGE, was 4.58% over the 12 months to September.
That is above the central bank’s 3% goal and up from 4.22% in August, with prices rising 0.82% in September alone. Cutting rates while the currency falls can push prices higher, because imports become more expensive.
Analysts in the central bank’s weekly Focus survey agree: their median forecast for 2027 inflation jumped from 4.40% on 28 October to 4.76% on 30 October, and for 2026 it stands at 5.22%. The same survey still showed a cut to 13.50% at this meeting, at the median, in data to Friday 30 October.
Its data ends before Tuesday’s market moves.
How Did Brazil Get Here?
The Selic stood at 15% at the start of March. The bank has cut it five times by 0.25 percentage point, taking the rate to 13.75%.
Those changes took effect on 19 March, 30 April, 18 June, 6 August and 17 September.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-1.42%
165,528.92
-1.42%
70,184.33
+0.58%
10,365.73
-0.09%
2,848,945
—
2,527.66
+1.47%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 165,528.92 | -1.42% | +19.56% | 167,921.80 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| SELIC | 13.75% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 53.31 | -1.06% | +77.70% | 53.88 | 53.70 | 52.83 | 43,239,500 |
| VALE3 | 62.88 | -2.33% | +1.98% | 64.38 | 64.43 | 62.80 | 24,652,300 |
| ITUB4 | 41.42 | -0.67% | +11.30% | 41.70 | 42.60 | 41.15 | 28,160,700 |
| BBDC4 | 15.69 | -1.63% | -13.88% | 15.95 | 16.30 | 15.67 | 65,766,400 |
| BBAS3 | 17.59 | +0.69% | -15.59% | 17.47 | 18.31 | 17.51 | 67,844,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.27 | +1.33% | +21.71% | 15.07 | 15.78 | 15.20 | 75,282,000 |
| ABEV3 | 15.40 | +0.20% | +26.75% | 15.37 | 15.68 | 15.31 | 27,307,400 |
| WEGE3 | 45.78 | +2.81% | +10.06% | 44.53 | 47.08 | 45.06 | 9,823,200 |
| PRIO3 | 69.21 | -2.71% | +87.14% | 71.14 | 70.98 | 69.15 | 6,663,200 |
| SUZB3 | 47.14 | -0.55% | -3.79% | 47.40 | 47.84 | 46.10 | 7,151,800 |
| RENT3 | 31.14 | -1.67% | -20.73% | 31.67 | 32.68 | 31.02 | 19,092,400 |
| AZZA3 | 16.72 | +1.15% | -42.24% | 16.53 | 17.42 | 16.72 | 4,875,400 |
| CSNA3 | 4.76 | -4.99% | -47.09% | 5.01 | 5.14 | 4.76 | 14,327,900 |
| GGBR4 | 24.87 | -2.28% | +36.28% | 25.45 | 26.20 | 24.79 | 7,507,900 |
| ENEV3 | 26.79 | +0.45% | +49.78% | 26.67 | 27.35 | 26.30 | 12,263,000 |
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, lists a market on the November decision with US$155,382 traded. At 3:50 a.m. ET on 4 November it priced no change at 86.2%, a 0.25-point cut at 13.5% and a larger cut at 0.6%.
For the December meeting, with US$53,135 traded, no change is priced at 66.0% and a 0.25-point cut at 23.0%. Prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
The winner of a pause is anyone holding reais at 13.75%, who keeps a high yield. The loser is anyone borrowing in reais, and any dollar investor if the real keeps falling.
A 1.3% slide in two trading days shows how fast currency losses can eat into that yield. For travellers and expats paid in dollars, US$1,000 now buys about R$5,494; see our guide to the real-to-dollar rate.
US holders of Brazilian ADRs (US-listed receipts of foreign shares), such as Petrobras (PBR), Vale (VALE), Itaú (ITUB) and Nubank (NU), watch the same signal. Our Ibovespa guide explains how the index moves.
What Is Not Known
We do not know the committee’s vote or its wording until the statement comes out. It may say the cuts are over, or only paused.
Nor is it clear how fast Brazil’s government will move on public spending, which investors are watching closely. Either answer could move the real quickly.
What to Watch Next
Today, about 12:30 p.m. ET: the labour ministry’s Caged report on formal jobs for September, with about 150,000 net new jobs expected against 165,827 in August. Tonight, about 4:30 p.m. ET: the Copom statement.
Monday 9 November: the next Focus survey, which will show whether analysts moved their Selic forecasts. In December: the next Copom meeting, where Polymarket sees a pause as more likely than a cut.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Brazil’s Selic rate today?
The Selic is 13.75% a year, in place since 17 September. The central bank announces its next decision on Wednesday 4 November, about 4:30 p.m. ET.
Will Brazil cut interest rates today?
Polymarket gave 86.2% to no change and 13.5% to a quarter-point cut at 3:50 a.m. ET on 4 November. Those prices are bets, not a forecast from the central bank.
Sources: Banco Central do Brasil, Selic target series; Banco Central do Brasil, Focus survey (data to 30 October 2026) and official dollar rate; IBGE, IPCA consumer prices; B3, Ibovespa closing data; Polymarket, Bank of Brazil decision in November (accessed 4 November 2026, 3:50 a.m. ET).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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