Brazil Interest Rate: Selic Today, Next Copom and Forecast
Updated 2 times · Latest: 19 October 2026
Key Facts
—Selic today. 13.75% a year, set by the central bank on Wednesday 16 September 2026 and in force since 17 September. The next decision is Wednesday 4 November 2026.
—Who decides. Copom, the central bank’s rate-setting committee, led by Governor Gabriel Galípolo; it meets eight times a year.
—Why Americans care. The rate is more than three times the US Federal Reserve’s 3.75% to 4.00% range, which is what pulls dollar investors into Brazilian bonds and the real.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices a quarter-point cut in November at 90.5% and a quarter-point cut in December at 53.5% (19 October 2026, 2:34 a.m. ET).
—Still unknown. The committee has not promised a path; it says each step depends on inflation data.
Brazil’s central bank interest rate, the Selic, is 13.75% a year as of 19 October 2026, after a quarter-point cut on 16 September. At that rate R$1,000 (about US$197 at R$5.07 per dollar on 19 October) earns roughly R$137.50 (about US$27) over a year, before tax.
Sources: Banco Central do Brasil (Selic, Focus survey, PTAX), IBGE (IPCA), EODHD (market quotes). Checked Oct 19, 13:45 UTC.
What the Selic Rate Is
The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, the price of overnight money between banks. It plays the role of the US federal funds rate, and every loan, savings product and government bond in Brazil is priced from it.
The name comes from the Special System for Settlement and Custody, the platform where federal bonds trade. The central bank publishes a target rate after each meeting and a slightly lower “effective” rate that banks actually pay.
Why US Readers Should Care
For a dollar investor, the Selic is the reward for holding Brazil. With US rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, the gap of about 10 percentage points attracts “carry trade” money, which borrows in cheap dollars to earn Brazilian yields.
That money supports the real, but it can leave fast if the central bank cuts too quickly or politics frighten investors. The same rate shapes the profits of US-listed Brazilian companies such as Petrobras (PBR), Vale (VALE), Itaú (ITUB) and Nubank (NU), and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ).
A high Selic also raises the cost of credit for Brazilian families and firms, which is why cuts tend to help rate-sensitive sectors such as retail and construction. For travellers and expats paid in dollars, a higher rate usually means a stronger real and costlier Brazil.
How a Copom Decision Works
Copom is made up of the governor and the directors of the Banco Central do Brasil, and each member has one vote. It meets over two days, usually Tuesday and Wednesday, and announces the decision on Wednesday evening after about 6:30 p.m. Brasília time.
The inflation target is 3.0% with a tolerance band of 1.5 points either side, so 1.5% to 4.5%. When inflation runs above the band the committee holds or raises rates, and it cuts when prices cool.
Brazil’s real interest rate, the Selic minus inflation, is about 8.8% using the 12-month IPCA of 4.58% for September. That gap is the main reason the committee says policy must stay tight.
The Last Four Copom Decisions
- Wednesday 16 September 2026: cut by 0.25 point to 13.75% from 14.00%, the fifth cut in a row.
- Wednesday 5 August 2026: cut by 0.25 point to 14.00% from 14.25%.
- Wednesday 17 June 2026: cut by 0.25 point to 14.25% from 14.50%.
- Wednesday 29 April 2026: cut by 0.25 point to 14.50% from 14.75%. The cycle began on 18 March 2026, when the rate fell from 15.00%.
What Moved the Rate Lately
- 16 September: the committee cut to 13.75% hours after the Fed moved the other way. Our report on the decision covers the split verdict between the two banks.
- 22 September: the minutes said inflation is still driven by demand, so policy must stay tight. Read the minutes explained.
- 9 October: September inflation rose to 4.58%, above the 4.5% ceiling of the target band. See the inflation report, and how economists now expect 5.22% for 2026.
What Comes Next
The Focus survey, a weekly poll of banks and funds run by the central bank, expected in its 13 October edition that the Selic would end 2026 at 13.25%, which implies about two more quarter-point cuts. That is a forecast, not a promise, and the committee has declined to commit to a path.
- Friday 23 October, 8:00 a.m. ET: IBGE publishes IPCA-15, the mid-month inflation reading (the forecast is 0.4% for the month).
- Wednesday 4 November: Copom decision, announced after about 6:30 p.m. Brasília time, which is 4:30 p.m. ET.
- Tuesday 10 November: Copom minutes, normally published the Tuesday after the decision.
- Thursday 12 November, 7:00 a.m. ET: IBGE publishes October inflation (IPCA).
- Wednesday 9 December: the last Copom decision of 2026.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Polymarket, “Bank of Brazil decision in November”: 25 basis point cut 90.5%, no change 8.6% (US$68,952 traded).
- Polymarket, December decision: 25 basis point cut 53.5%, cut of 50 points or more 25.5%, no change 17.5% (US$25,796 traded).
Prices as of 2:34 a.m. ET, 19 October 2026. Prices are bets, not polls; Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
How Foreigners Can Earn the Selic
Brazilian residents buy Tesouro Selic, a federal bond that pays the Selic, through the Treasury’s Tesouro Direto platform. Bank certificates of deposit (CDBs) pay a share of the CDI, the interbank rate that tracks the Selic.
Non-residents invest through a local custodian under separate central bank rules, and their tax treatment differs from the 15% to 22.5% schedule that residents pay. Confirm the rules with your broker, and weigh the yield against the risk that the real falls against the dollar.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current Brazil interest rate?
The Selic target is 13.75% a year, set on 16 September 2026 and in force since 17 September. The next Copom decision is on Wednesday 4 November 2026.
Why is Brazil’s interest rate so high?
Inflation is 4.58%, above the 4.5% ceiling of the target band, and the central bank said in its 22 September minutes that demand is still driving prices. After inflation, the Selic leaves a real rate of about 8.8%.
How often does Copom meet?
Eight times a year, over two days each time. The remaining 2026 meetings are 3 to 4 November and 8 to 9 December.
Will the Selic fall further in 2026?
Economists in the 13 October Focus survey expect 13.25% by year-end, which means about two more quarter-point cuts. Prediction markets price a November cut at 90.5%, but the committee has made no promise.
Sources
Banco Central do Brasil, Copom decisions · BCB Focus survey · IBGE release calendar · Federal Reserve · Tesouro Direto
Related: Brazil economy 2026 · Brazil inflation rate · US dollar to Brazilian real · Brazil stock market · Brazil GDP
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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