Brazil Election Polls 2026: Runoff Poll Tracker
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026 · POLL TRACKER
Updated 28 times · Latest: 18 October 2026
Key Facts
- —The vote Brazil chooses its president in a runoff on Sunday, 25 October, between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL, conservative) and President Lula (PT, left).
- —Poll average Flávio 51.2%, Lula 48.8% of valid votes, the latest poll of each of twelve pollsters, unweighted.
- —Who leads Flávio in sixteen of eighteen runoff polls since 5 October; Vox Brasil has Lula ahead and PoderData/Aya has a 50% tie.
- —The trend PoderData, Datafolha, Gerp and Futura, the pollsters with more than one runoff wave, all saw Flávio’s lead shrink between 8 and 16 October, PoderData from 6 points to a tie, Datafolha from 4 to 2 and Futura from 3.6 to 1.6 and Gerp from 10 points to 4.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 80% and Kalshi at 80% (Lula: 20% and 21%), as of 18 October, 2:00 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Lula in sixteen of the eighteen national runoff polls published since Brazil’s first round on 4 October. Our average of each pollster’s latest survey gives him 51.2% of valid votes to Lula’s 48.8%, a lead of 2.4 points with seven days to go.
Flávio, 45, is a Rio de Janeiro senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL) and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula, 80, of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), is seeking a fourth term, and this page adds every new runoff poll as it is registered.
Every Runoff Poll Since 5 October
Polls are listed newest first, with each candidate’s share of valid votes, the measure the electoral court (TSE) uses to declare the winner. Valid votes leave out blank, spoiled and undecided answers, and every poll carries its TSE registration number.
We covered the Datafolha poll, the AtlasIntel poll and the Futura poll in detail. The Ipespe report also asked which candidate comes across better in TV interviews.
The Average and the Trend
Our average is a simple mean of each pollster’s latest poll in valid votes, with no weighting, and it covers twelve pollsters. Vox Brasil published only figures for all answers, so we removed its blank, spoiled and undecided answers to compare it with the others.
Flávio leads in sixteen of the eighteen polls, by margins between 1 and 10 points, one poll (PoderData/Aya) is a tie and one (Vox Brasil) has Lula ahead, with Gerp showing him highest on 55%. The five polls released from 8 to 10 October averaged 51.9% for him and the five released on 11 and 13 October 52.6%, a shift well inside the margins of error. The three polls released on 16 October (PoderData/Aya, Futura/100% Cidades and CNT/MDA) average 50.4% for him, about a point and a half below the earlier batch.
Quaest, released on 14 October, sits at 51.1% by our calculation, just below the average.
As of the afternoon of 17 October (5 p.m. in Lisbon, 1 p.m. in Brasília), the two newest polls, Ipespe/Abrapel (51.2%) and Veritá (51.1%), put Flávio just over two points ahead and pull our average to 51.2% for Flávio and 48.8% for Lula, from 51.4% and 48.6% the day before. The next test is the first runoff debate, on Band on Sunday 18 October at 8 p.m. Brasília time (7 p.m. US Eastern), covered in our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide.
PoderData, with three runoff waves so far, saw the gap narrow from 6 points on 8 October to 2 on 13 October and to a 50% tie on 16 October, as Lula rose from 47% to 50%. Futura/100% Cidades, which published on 13 and 16 October, saw Flávio’s valid-vote lead fall from 3.6 points to 1.6. Datafolha’s valid-vote gap narrowed from 4 points on 8 October to 2 points on 15 October, from 52% to 48% to 51% to 49%. Nexus shows the swing since before the first round, from a 46% to 44% Lula lead on 28 September to a 48% to 45% Flávio lead on 13 October among all answers.
Before the first round, runoff simulations showed a near tie, as our 14 September, 22 September and 28 September reports found. The first round then moved the race toward Flávio, who finished ahead on 4 October.
How the Pollsters Did in the First Round
The TSE’s final count gave Flávio 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, a lead of 1.87 points, with 56,104,503 votes to 53,879,538. Our Brazil election results page has the full count by state.
The four best-known final polls, Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData and CNT/MDA, all put Lula in front and landed within 2.7 points of his result. They placed Flávio two to five points too low, with Datafolha’s 42% the furthest off and Quaest’s 45% the closest.
Gerp’s final poll was the exception, with Flávio ahead 46% to 44%, within 1.2 points of each result. The same pollster now gives Flávio his widest runoff lead, 55% of valid votes.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets let traders buy contracts that pay US$1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 83 cents reads as an 83% chance. On Polymarket, Flávio stood at 82.8% and Lula at 16.5% at about 4 a.m. ET on 15 October, down from 85.0% the afternoon before and to 79.5% against 20.5% by about 10 a.m. ET, a firmer verdict than the polls, where the average lead is about three points.
After a dip to about 75% around midday, the price was back at 78.6% for Flávio and 21.5% for Lula at 4:07 p.m. ET (our report).
At about 8 a.m. ET on Friday, 16 October, Polymarket had Flávio at 78.0% and Lula at 22.5%, little changed from 77.8% and 22.5% at about 5 a.m. ET. At about 5 a.m. ET, Polymarket had Flávio at 77.8% and Lula at 22.5%, with about US$184 million traded on the event, a little closer than the afternoon before and still wider than the two-point polling lead. By about 11 a.m. ET on 16 October, Polymarket priced Flávio at 76.2% and Lula at 23.5%, with about US$185 million traded, a slip of about two points for Flávio since the morning, while Kalshi, regulated in the United States by the CFTC, had him at 77% and Lula at 24%. At about 2 p.m. ET on 16 October Polymarket priced Flávio at 76.4% and Lula at 22.5%, with about US$185 million traded, so the market showed no visible move after newspapers reported the betting-firm flights. At about 5 p.m. ET Polymarket had Flávio at 76.3% and Lula at 23.5%, with about US$185 million traded on the event, little changed after the three polls released that afternoon put the race at or near a tie. At about 2 p.m. ET on Saturday, 17 October, Polymarket had Flávio at 77.0% and Lula at 23.5%, with about US$185.3 million traded, a fraction higher for Flávio than on Friday evening. At about 4 p.m. ET the prices were unchanged, and no new runoff poll had been published by then. At about 3 a.m. ET on Sunday, 18 October, Polymarket priced Flávio at about 81% and Lula at 19.5%, with about US$186.9 million traded on the event, up from 77.0% and 23.5% on Saturday afternoon, with the move coming overnight; no new runoff poll had been published by then. At about 4 a.m. ET the prices were still the same, and at about 6 a.m. ET Polymarket had Flávio at 80.9% and Lula at 19.5%, with about US$187.0 million traded. The Band debate at 8 p.m. Brasília time tonight is the next test. At about 8 a.m. ET on Sunday, 18 October, Polymarket priced Flávio at 80.8% and Lula at 19.5%, with about US$187.0 million traded, still unchanged within a tenth of a point with the Band debate due that evening. At about 10 a.m. ET the prices were the same at about 81% for Flávio and 19.5% for Lula, with about US$187.1 million traded across all candidate markets. At about noon ET on Sunday, 18 October, Polymarket priced Flávio at about 80% and Lula at 19.5%, with about US$187.1 million traded across all candidate markets. The Band debate at 8 p.m. Brasília time tonight is the next test.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · Lula 19.5% (US$187 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · Lula 21%
As of 18 October, 2:00 pm ET (19:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian shares, bonds or the real, plan for both outcomes rather than for the leader in the latest poll. The first round showed that polls can miss one candidate by five points while getting the other right.
Read the valid-vote figure first, because a 52% to 48% poll is a four-point race, not a landslide. The winner takes office on 5 January 2027, and our runoff guide explains the rules, the dates and the candidates.
What Is Not Known
Datafolha found a statistical tie on 15 October, 51% to 49%, and PoderData, Futura and CNT/MDA then showed a tie or a lead of under two points on 16 October. The next Datafolha and Quaest surveys will show whether the narrowing holds, and we add each poll here on the day it is published.
No poll can tell which of the 33.5 million voters who stayed home on 4 October will turn out on 25 October. Abstention reached 21.08% in the first round, and a small shift in turnout could outweigh a two-point lead.
More: Brazil news, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ahead in the Brazil runoff polls?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads in sixteen of the eighteen national Brazil runoff polls tracked here since 5 October. Our simple average of each pollster’s latest survey gives him 51.2% of valid votes to Lula’s 48.8%.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026, between the two leaders of the 4 October first round. The winner takes office on 5 January 2027, under a 2021 constitutional amendment.
How accurate were the polls in the first round?
Four major final polls all had Lula ahead, while the official count gave Flávio 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16%. They were close on Lula but placed Flávio two to five points too low.
Why do Brazilian polls report valid votes?
Brazil’s electoral court declares the winner on valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters also drop undecided answers so their figures match the way the official result is counted.
What do prediction markets say about the Brazil runoff?
On 15 October at about 4 p.m. ET, Polymarket bettors gave Flávio a 78.6% chance of winning, after a dip to about 75% around midday; on 14 October, Kalshi traders gave him 88%. These are real-money bets, not polls, and their prices can move within minutes.
Sources: O Povo, Datafolha runoff poll BR-00466/2026, 15 October 2026; InfoMoney, Quaest runoff poll, BR-08729/2026, 14 October 2026; Superior Electoral Court (TSE), official first-round result, president, 5 October 2026; Superior Electoral Court (TSE), open-data registry of 2026 election polls, 13 October 2026; Poder360 / PoderData, runoff poll 10 to 12 October, 13 October 2026; Gerp, national runoff poll report BR-07877/2026, 13 October 2026; BTG Pactual / Nexus, round 17 report, 13 October 2026; Exame, Futura runoff poll, 13 October 2026; Poder360, DataTrends runoff poll, 11 October 2026; Ipespe/Abrapel, campaign tracking round 1 report, 10 October 2026; AtlasIntel, national poll 3 to 8 October, 9 October 2026; Poder360, Vox Brasil runoff poll, 9 October 2026; Folha de S.Paulo, Datafolha runoff poll, 8 October 2026; Poder360 / PoderData, runoff poll 5 to 7 October, 8 October 2026; Datafolha, final first-round poll, 3 October 2026; Bem Paraná, final first-round polls, 3 October 2026; Presidency of Brazil, Constitutional Amendment 111/2021 (5 January inauguration), 28 September 2021; NC News, first-round polls against the count, 9 October 2026; Exame, Gerp runoff poll and its first-round record, 13 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo, the pollster closest to the first-round result, 5 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo, Nexus/BTG runoff poll, 13 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief