Every major Brazil election poll for 2026 — tracked in one place and updated every week. The race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has tightened from a 12-point gap in December to a statistical dead heat in the latest surveys. This tracker compiles every credible national poll from the period leading up to the October 4, 2026 first round.
Latest Poll: BTG Nexus — March 27–29, 2026
The most recent national poll, conducted by Nexus for BTG Pactual between March 27 and 29, shows the tightest race yet. In a simulated second round, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied at 46% each — a dead heat within the survey’s two-point margin of error. The poll covered 2,006 voters and is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under registration BR-07974/2026.
In the first-round scenario, Lula holds a numerical lead but remains within the margin of error. The pattern across all recent polls is consistent: Lula leads the first round but faces a runoff that has narrowed to a coin toss. Flávio Bolsonaro has closed a 12-point gap in under four months — one of the fastest opposition consolidations in recent Brazilian electoral history.
Brazil Election Poll 2026 — All National Surveys (First Round)
Sorted by most recent. All figures are voting intentions, not approval ratings. Blank/null votes and undecided excluded from some institutes’ reported figures.
| Pollster | Field Dates | Lula (PT) | F. Bolsonaro (PL) | Others | Lead | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná Pesquisas | Mar 25–28 | 41.3% | 37.8% | Caiado 3.6%, Zema 3% | +3.5pp Lula | 2,080 | ±2.2pp |
| Gerp | Mar 20–25 | 38% | 36% | Ratinho 4%, Caiado 3% | +2pp Lula | 2,000 | ±2.2pp |
| AtlasIntel | Mar 18–23 | 45.9% | 40.1% | Caiado 3.7%, Zema 3.1% | +5.8pp Lula | 5,028 | ±1pp |
| Ideia | Mar 6–10 | 40.3% | 35% | Caiado 5.5%, Zema 5% | +5.3pp Lula | 1,500 | ±2.5pp |
| Quaest | Mar 6–9 | 39% | 32% | Caiado 4%, Zema 2% | +7pp Lula | 2,004 | ±2pp |
| Datafolha | Mar 3–5 | 39% | 33% | Caiado 4%, Zema 5% | +6pp Lula | 2,004 | ±2pp |
| Futura | Mar 2–6 | 35.1% | 41.9% | Caiado 5.7% | +6.8pp Flávio | 2,000 | ±2.2pp |
| Paraná Pesquisas | Feb 22–25 | 40.5% | 36.6% | Zema 4.3%, Caiado 3.7% | +3.9pp Lula | 2,080 | ±2.2pp |
| AtlasIntel | Feb 19–24 | 47.1% | 33.1% | Tarcísio 7.4%, Caiado 4.1% | +14pp Lula | 4,986 | ±1pp |
| Quaest | Feb 5–9 | 41% | 32% | Caiado 4%, Zema 2% | +9pp Lula | 2,004 | ±2pp |
| AtlasIntel | Jan 15–20 | 48.4% | 28% | Tarcísio 11%, Caiado 2.9% | +20.4pp Lula | 5,418 | ±1pp |
Second Round Simulations: Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro
The runoff is where the race is being decided. Lula’s first-round lead does not translate into a comfortable second-round position.
| Pollster | Field Dates | Lula | Flávio Bolsonaro | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTG Nexus ← most recent | Mar 27–29 | 46% | 46% | Dead heat |
| Paraná Pesquisas | Mar 25–28 | 44.1% | 45.2% | +1.1pp Flávio |
| AtlasIntel | Mar 18–23 | 46.6% | 47.6% | +1pp Flávio |
| Quaest | Mar 6–9 | 41% | 41% | Tied |
| Datafolha | Mar 3–5 | 46% | 43% | +3pp Lula |
| AtlasIntel | Feb 19–24 | 46.2% | 46.3% | +0.1pp Flávio |
| Quaest | Feb 5–9 | 43% | 38% | +5pp Lula |
| AtlasIntel | Jan 15–20 | 49% | 45% | +4pp Lula |
What the Trend Shows
In January, AtlasIntel had Lula up by 20 points in the first round and 4 points in a runoff. By late March, four consecutive polls put the second round within the margin of error — and two gave Flávio a numerical lead. The direction of travel is unmistakable, even if the destination is not yet determined.
Flávio Bolsonaro consolidated the right-wing vote faster than most analysts expected. His father Jair Bolsonaro, imprisoned for the January 8 coup attempt, formally endorsed him in December 2025. The Liberal Party mobilized its evangelical and rural networks quickly. By March, Flávio had absorbed virtually all of the Tarcísio de Freitas vote — after the São Paulo governor announced he would seek reelection as governor instead of running for president.
Lula’s weaknesses are structural. Both frontrunners carry rejection rates above 44%, meaning there are very few persuadable voters. Lula’s government disapproval stands at approximately 53% in the most recent AtlasIntel survey. Voter discontent with the political class runs deep: Senate president Davi Alcolumbre and House speaker Hugo Motta both carry 81% negative ratings. This environment does not favor incumbents.
Approval Ratings and Image
| Candidate / Leader | Positive Image | Negative Image | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula (PT) | 43% | 51% | AtlasIntel Mar 2026 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) | 43% | 56% | AtlasIntel Mar 2026 |
| Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) | 44% | 45% | AtlasIntel Mar 2026 |
| Fernando Haddad (PT) | n/a | 57% | AtlasIntel Mar 2026 |
What This Means for Investors
Brazilian markets are pricing in elevated political risk. The Ibovespa has been volatile around each major poll release, particularly the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey that first showed the runoff as a statistical tie. A Flávio Bolsonaro presidency would likely mean faster privatizations, tighter fiscal policy and a more market-friendly economic stance — but also trade tensions with China given the Bolsonaro family’s geopolitical positioning. A Lula reelection implies policy continuity, ongoing fiscal pressure, and a government that prioritizes social spending over primary surplus targets.
Prediction markets provide a live read on investor consensus. Polymarket currently prices Lula at 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37.1% to win the presidency — a spread that reflects Lula’s structural advantage in the first round even as the runoff remains genuinely open. For more on the economic stakes of the election, see our Brazil Elections 2026 Complete Guide.