Argentina Markets: Merval & the Peso — September 26, 2026

01 The session in one read

Argentina’s main stock index, the Merval, sagged 1.57% on Friday to settle at 2,893,751 points. The pullback was concentrated in banks and financial services, the shares most exposed to Argentina’s sovereign credit story.

The peso also moved lower, easing 0.30% to 1,524 per US dollar in the wholesale market. That takes the currency to the weakest edge of its 52-week closing range, which spans from 1,329.50 to 1,524.50 per US dollar.

The trigger was a familiar one: JP Morgan’s country-risk index, which measures the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar debt versus US Treasuries, rose about 30 points to 609 basis points. That was its tenth straight daily advance and its highest level since early April.

For a market still trading on the Milei reform story, the math has turned finicky. Deregulation and fiscal discipline still matter, but right now neither is doing enough to offset the tightening grip of sovereign risk.

02 The day’s numbers

The Merval’s 1.57% decline was its steepest one-day drop since 16 September, though the index remains well above its year-ago level. The peso’s 0.30% weakening kept the pressure on hard-currency earners, but the real damage was in domestic financial names.

The 609-basis-point country-risk reading is the figure to hold in view. It does not move a chart like a stock price, but it sets the borrowing costs for Argentina and therefore the discount investors apply to every Argentine share.

03 Why it moved — sovereign risk tightens its grip

The session was a tug-of-war between Argentina’s improving micro story and a deteriorating macro one. On the ground, YPF confirmed an average 1% increase in fuel prices, and Brent crude holding above US$100 a barrel should normally support energy shares.

Against that, the government paid almost US$800 million to the IMF, and the central bank finished the day without buying reserves. That means the dollar supply cushion is thinner than bulls would like.

The banks are the market’s stethoscope for that tension. Banco Macro fell 2.9%, Grupo Supervielle dropped 2.3%, and BYMA, the company that runs Argentina’s stock exchange, lost 2.9%. Each is a direct bet on Argentine credit and local financial activity.

Put simply, investors are not selling Argentina because the reform agenda has failed. They are selling because the price of Argentine risk is rising faster than the reform story can compensate.

04 The day’s movers

Edenor, the Buenos Aires electricity distributor, was the biggest drag, sliding 3.2% on thin turnover of under US$1 million. Utility names that rely on local tariffs and subsidies tend to wobble when sovereign risk rises.

Among the larger blue chips, Grupo Galicia slipped 1.6% with US$8 million in volume, the heaviest traded local name after YPF. YPF’s 2.3% fall came on US$9 million — the day’s most-traded local stock. The energy heavyweight is still the most liquid way for foreign funds to express a view on Argentina’s oil and gas story.

Cross-listed CEDEARs also offered no shelter. Foreign shares traded in Buenos Aires, like META at -3.2% and VIST at -1.1%, mainly reflected the US tape and currency moves rather than Argentine fundamentals.

05 The regional scoreboard

Argentina was the regional laggard, with the Merval’s 1.57% drop standing out against a mixed Latin American session. Mexico gained 0.6%, while Colombia fell nearly 1%.

The regional spread underlines how Argentina-specific risk, not a global equity storm, drove the session. Mexico logged a gain and Brazil only a slight loss, so the selling was a home-grown story.

06 The technical picture

The Merval’s close at 2,893,751 leaves the index below the psychologically important 3-million-point threshold and at its lowest close since 20 August. That level was originally crossed during the post-election rally, but this week’s five-session, 4.2% slide suggests the 3-million mark is now resistance rather than support.

The peso is trading at the weakest edge of its 52-week range, with Friday’s 1,524.50 close marking the outer boundary on a closing basis. A decisive break above that level could accelerate the move, but the currency has spent most of the past year trading well inside that band.

For the banks, the technical damage is now a market signal. The next test is whether energy and utility names can hold their ranges if country risk keeps climbing.

07 What to watch

• Sovereign risk: Whether country risk extends its streak or stabilises back below 600 basis points — it sets the tone for banks
• Central bank reserves: The next reserve-buying session will show whether the peso can stabilise near 1,524 per US dollar
• YPF fuel prices: The 1% increase may support energy shares if Brent holds above US$100, but the market has not rewarded it yet
• Global risk appetite: US equities were quiet, but a rise in Treasury yields or a stronger dollar could hit Argentine risk again

Background: Merval Falls 1.29% as Argentine ADRs Slide Across Latin America.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Merval?

The Merval is Argentina’s main stock index, tracking the biggest and most-traded companies on the Buenos Aires exchange.

Why did the peso weaken?

The central bank bought no dollars after a payment of almost US$800 million to the IMF, leaving the peso at 1,524 per US dollar, the weakest point of its 52-week range.

What is country risk?

Country risk is the extra yield investors demand to hold a country’s dollar debt instead of US Treasuries. It rose to 609 basis points on Friday, its tenth straight rise, meaning Argentina’s risk premium is climbing.

Why did banks fall most?

Banks are a direct play on Argentina’s sovereign credit. When country risk rises, their funding costs and loan losses climb, so investors sell them first.

Market data: RT live market data; exchange figures from BYMA

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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