Argentina Stocks Drop 4.1% in Global Rout | Argentina Market Report, Nov 5
Key Facts
- The Merval, Buenos Aires’ main stock index, fell 4.1% the steepest drop among the five Latin American indices we track, as Wall Street’s S&P 500 lost 4.36%.
- The peso held its ground, with the dollar down 0.16% at 1,545 pesos a calm currency in a stormy session.
- YPF, the oil giant, was the heaviest casualty among the big names, down 7.4% in Buenos Aires on US$18m of turnover, ahead of Grupo Galicia at 3.2% lower.
- Country risk, the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds, rose 78 points in a day to 925 on JP Morgan’s EMBI index, the standard emerging-market bond gauge, after the 900 line broke.
- Mercado Libre’s disappointing results pulled its local share certificate down 12.6% a reminder that part of Argentina’s screen is really a mirror of New York.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, where users bet real money, gives President Javier Milei 44.5% to win the next presidential election and Axel Kicillof, a leading opposition figure, 31.5% (US$1.29 million traded, 7:59 p.m. ET, 5 November).
Today’s Focus
Argentine shares took the brunt of a worldwide sell-off, with the Merval down 4.1% to 84,595 points while the peso barely moved. The dollar slipped 0.16% to 1,545 pesos.
The trigger was Wall Street, where the S&P 500 lost 4.36%, the Nasdaq lost 5.52% and the VIX — the market’s fear gauge — leapt 69.66% to 28.18. Investors dumped risky assets, and Argentina, a favourite of the Milei reform trade, is among the first things sold.
Local worries added weight: the government made a payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reserves fell, and country risk crossed 900 points. The economic team blamed the external backdrop for the bond slide.
What matters today. This looks like a global fright hitting a fragile credit story, and the test is whether country risk settles back below 900 points.
01 The session in one read
Buenos Aires had a rough day. The Merval, which tracks the biggest listed Argentine companies, fell 4.1%, while the peso, the national currency, held steady.
That split is the story. Shares and bonds were sold hard, but nobody queued at the currency exchange.
Country risk, the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds instead of safer US ones, ended at 925 points. JP Morgan’s index rose 78 points in a single day.
In plain terms, the market’s price for lending to Argentina rose sharply, and share prices followed.
The evidence points mainly to Wall Street. The usual Argentine drivers — a steady US dollar index at 101.565 and a US 10-year yield of 4.846%, down 4 basis points — did not call for a fall, so risk appetite, not rates, explains the move.
Local factors made the drop deeper rather than starting it: an IMF payment, a lower reserve cushion and thin bond buyers. We rate this MEDIUM because the peso’s calm suggests no domestic panic, yet bond spreads show nerves. The variable to watch is country risk against the 900-point line.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval | 84,595 | −4.1% | Steepest fall of the five regional indices |
| Session range | — | — | High and low not available in our scan |
| Dollar vs peso | 1,545 | −0.16% | Peso slightly firmer on the day |
| Dollar, five sessions | 1,545 | +0.42% | Peso still a little weaker than a week ago |
| Dollar, 20 sessions | 1,545 | +1.88% | Gradual peso drift over a month |
| Dollar vs 12-month high | 1,551 | −0.4% | High set on 3 November; the dollar sits just under it |
| Dollar vs 12-month low | 1,355 | +14.0% | Low set on 13 April; the dollar is far above it |
The table shows a calm currency beside a falling stock market. Over five sessions the dollar has gained 0.42%, and over 20 sessions 1.88%, a slow slide in the peso rather than a rush.
The dollar sits 0.4% below its 12-month high of 1,551 pesos and 14.0% above its low of 1,355. That puts the peso weaker than it was in April, but it is not breaking down. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,848,945
—
-6.54%
2,859,051
—
—
—
USD/ARS
1,545
-0.19%
+6.46%
1,548
1,547
1,544
—
YPF
6,530
-6.65%
+16.46%
6,995
7,175
6,360
4,120,391
GGAL
5,010
-3.00%
-43.24%
5,165
5,245
4,878
4,702,933
PAMPA
4,283
-1.89%
-18.83%
4,365
4,488
4,230
1,520,629
TXAR
697.00
-5.04%
-12.20%
734.00
750.00
682.00
2,389,138
ALUAR
774.00
-3.97%
-21.15%
806.00
820.00
753.50
423,520
TGS
7,370
-5.75%
-18.98%
7,820
7,970
7,250
309,544
CEPU
1,621
-4.08%
-28.92%
1,690
1,715
1,600
1,585,395
MIRGOR
1,720
-2.27%
-91.97%
1,760
1,760
1,665
24,419
COME
30.64
-5.67%
-51.34%
32.48
32.90
29.85
10,684,007
LOMA NEGRA
2,880
-3.03%
-14.35%
2,970
3,020
2,835
319,711
BYMA
196.25
-6.10%
-38.65%
209.00
215.25
192.00
6,907,325
TELECOM ARG
3,390
-3.07%
-8.46%
3,498
3,553
3,275
226,531
GLOBANT
49.24
+2.50%
-16.26%
48.04
50.19
47.48
2,537,650
MERCADOLIBRE
1,530
-12.05%
-28.10%
1,740
1,610
1,469
2,146,134
03 Why it moved — a global rout meets thin Argentine nerves
First, and heaviest, was Wall Street. The S&P 500 fell 4.36%, the Dow Jones 3.44% and the Nasdaq 5.52%, while the VIX jumped 69.66% to 28.18.
Local reporting links the fear to doubts about the future of artificial intelligence. Confidence: high.
Second, Argentina’s own credit nerves. Reserves fell after the IMF payment, and the economic team tied a bond fall of up to 4% to the global slide.
Bondholders are also watching whether Argentina can keep paying its debts over the coming year. Confidence: medium-high.
Third, company news. Mercado Libre, the Argentine-founded e-commerce group listed in New York, reported earnings below forecasts, and its local certificate fell 12.6%. Confidence: medium.
The cross-asset check does not fit a rates story. The US 10-year yield eased to 4.846% and an oil-tracking fund rose 1.93%, yet YPF still fell 7.4%, so this was a sell-off in risk itself.
Separately, state purchases were detected of about 1.9 trillion pesos (about US$1.2 billion) in inflation-linked and dual bonds on Wednesday. It reads this as an attempt to set a ceiling on yields.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| YPF (YPFD) | $18m turnover | −7.4% | Largest oil company, majority state-owned; worst big name |
| Grupo Galicia (GGAL) | $18m turnover | −3.2% | Owner of Banco Galicia |
| Banco Macro (BMA) | US$6m turnover | −2.7% | Large private bank |
| Pampa Energía (PAMP) | US$4m turnover | −2.0% | Power and gas producer |
| Central Puerto (CEPU) | US$2m turnover | −2.4% | Power generator |
| Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGSU2) | US$2m turnover | −6.9% | Gas pipeline operator |
| Mercado Libre (MELI), cross-listed | — | −12.6% | Share certificate of a New York-listed firm, not a domestic company |
Energy and banks led the damage because they carry the most Argentine risk. YPF and Galicia each traded US$18m, the busiest names on the board.
Other heavy losers were the exchange operator BYMA at −5.3%, and the power-transmission firm Transener (TRAN) and the financial group Valores (VALO), both at −4.6%. The Mercado Libre line is a certificate of a foreign-listed share, so it mostly tracks New York and the currency.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | −0.82% |
| IPC | Mexico | +0.30% |
| IPSA | Chile | −1.52% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | −0.88% |
Most of the region fell, but Argentina fell hardest, with Peru second. Mexico’s IPC was the only gainer; the live market board above carries the full closes.
Currencies told a similar story. The dollar rose 0.81% against Brazil’s real, 0.73% against the Mexican peso and 1.23% against the Chilean peso, while it fell 0.71% against the Colombian peso.
The Argentine peso’s steadiness stood out against that. For Brazilian and Mexican investors, the lesson is that Argentina’s tightly managed peso hid the stress that showed up in shares and bonds.
06 The technical picture
For the dollar against the peso, the ceiling is the 12-month high of 1,551, set on 3 November. A close above it would be a fresh sign of peso stress.
The floor is far away: the April low of 1,355, with the round 1,500 as a psychological marker.
For the Merval, the nearest marker is this session’s close. Holding it matters more than any chart line, because the sell-off was driven from abroad.
On country risk, 900 points is the line to watch. The index crossed it on the day, and a return below it would show the fear is fading.
What it means for you. If you hold Argentine shares or dollar bonds, expect sharp swings while global fear lasts; peso savers saw little change today because the exchange rate is tightly managed. The signal to watch is country risk against the 900-point line.
07 What to watch
- US jobs report, Friday 6 November: Non-farm payrolls are forecast at 65, up from 29. A strong print could calm Wall Street; a weak one could extend the fear.
- Argentine industrial output, Friday 6 November: Forecast at −1, against −3.2 before. It tests whether the economy is recovering as the government says.
- Country risk at 900 points: A move back below this line would signal bond buyers returning; a climb would pressure shares and the peso.
- Dollar at 1,551 pesos: A close above the 12-month high from 3 November would mark a new phase of peso weakness.
Background: Argentina’s YPF Falls 7.1% as Oil Slumps.
Background: Argentina Risk Gauge Jumps 3%, Stocks Fall.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money, shows President Javier Milei at 44.5% to win Argentina’s next presidential election and Axel Kicillof, governor of Buenos Aires province, at 31.5%, with about US$1.29 million traded. Prices were read at 7:59 p.m. ET on 5 November 2026.
These are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Argentina stock market fall?
The Merval fell 4.1% mainly because Wall Street sold off sharply, with the S&P 500 down 4.36%. Argentine bond stress and a weak Mercado Libre report added to the pressure.
What happened to the Argentine peso?
The peso held up. The dollar slipped 0.16% to 1,545 pesos and sits 0.4% below its 12-month high of 1,551.
What is country risk?
It is the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds over US Treasuries. JP Morgan’s gauge rose 78 points in a day to 925.
What should expats and travellers take from this?
The peso is steady, so everyday costs did not jump. Share and bond prices are volatile, so wait for calmer sessions before making big moves.
Market data: The Rio Times; exchange figures from BYMA
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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