Argentina’s YPF Falls 7.1% as Oil Slumps | Argentina Market Report, Nov 4
Key Facts
- Argentina’s biggest energy shares fell as oil dropped: YPF, the state-controlled oil giant, lost 7.1% in New York, and Pampa Energía, a power producer, 5.4%.
- Banks slipped only modestly: Grupo Galicia, the largest private bank, lost 1.7% in New York and Banco Macro, another large lender, 0.5%.
- The peso strengthened slightly to 1,548 per US dollar; the dollar’s price slipped 0.21%, but it sits only 0.2% below its 12-month high of 1,551, set on 3 November.
- Argentina swam against a rising regional tide as the S&P 500 gained 1.58%, the VIX fear gauge dropped 20.26% and Chile’s IPSA index added 2.52%.
Today’s Focus
Argentina’s biggest shares had a bad day on a good day for almost everyone else. YPF, the state-controlled oil company, fell 7.1% in New York and Pampa Energía, a power and gas producer, 5.4%, while Wall Street and most of Latin America rose. We have no verified close for Buenos Aires’ main index, the Merval, so this report follows the companies that make it up.
The culprit was oil. The US oil fund USO fell 8.07% after Democrats won control of both houses of the US Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections, which traders read as raising the odds of an end to the war in the Middle East, and YPF and Pampa fell with it.
Argentina’s stock market leans heavily on energy, so a cheaper barrel hurts it more than most. The peso, by contrast, barely flinched: 1,548 per dollar, a touch stronger on the day.
The lesson for a newcomer is that this was a sector shock, not a run on the country.
What matters today. Oil, not panic, explains the fall — and the peso’s calm suggests investors still trust the government’s currency framework.
01 The session in one read
Imagine a bus where most seats are taken by oil companies and banks, and the oil seats suddenly fall out. That is roughly what happened to Argentina’s blue chips: YPF fell 7.1% and Pampa 5.4% in New York.
The trigger came from the United States. The Democratic win in Congress was read as a step towards ending the Middle East war, and crude oil dropped fast.
Argentina’s energy stocks, led by YPF and Pampa, took the brunt. Wall Street shrugged: the S&P 500 rose 1.58% to 7,689.
The best-supported reading is that falling crude prices hit Argentina’s biggest energy shares, YPF and Pampa, which lost 7.1% and 5.4% in New York. Banks fell too, but modestly, and the peso strengthened slightly, which is not how a loss of confidence usually looks.
We hold this at medium confidence because country risk, the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds, was already near its highest since the 2025 elections, and a second weak patch would change the story. The variable to watch is the oil price, followed by the peso at 1,551.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| YPF (New York) | US$41.61 | −7.14% | Oil-led fall against a rising region |
| Session range | — | — | Intraday high and low not confirmed |
| USD/ARS (pesos per dollar) | 1,548 | −0.21% | Peso slightly stronger on the day |
| USD/ARS vs 12-month high | 1,551 (3 Nov) | −0.2% | Dollar within a whisker of its yearly peak |
| USD/ARS vs 12-month low | 1,355 (13 Apr) | +14.2% | Dollar is well above its April trough |
| Pampa Energía (New York) | US$64.84 | −5.36% | Power and gas producer tied to energy prices |
| Key technical level | 1,551 for the dollar | — | A close above it sets a new yearly high |
The table tells two stories. The energy shares had a clear loss, but the currency moved by barely a fifth of one per cent.
Over the past 20 sessions the dollar is 1.98% higher than it was, and over 60 sessions it is 3.7% higher. That is a slow drift weaker for the peso, not a dash. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,848,945
—
+12.65%
2,859,051
—
—
—
USD/ARS
1,537
-0.28%
+3.77%
1,541
1,541
1,537
—
YPF
8,140
-1.45%
+67.04%
8,260
8,400
8,130
1,057,856
GGAL
5,825
-2.27%
-17.84%
5,960
6,090
5,820
1,091,278
PAMPA
5,035
-2.04%
+11.33%
5,140
5,225
5,025
226,261
TXAR
761.00
-3.00%
+29.77%
784.50
798.50
757.00
1,172,882
ALUAR
855.00
-1.50%
+5.30%
868.00
910.00
854.00
265,896
TGS
8,400
-4.00%
-6.25%
8,750
8,920
8,400
71,435
CEPU
1,920
-1.39%
-1.35%
1,947
1,999
1,909
165,948
MIRGOR
1,775
-0.56%
-90.15%
1,785
1,805
1,735
6,214
COME
35.15
-1.90%
-14.82%
35.83
35.90
35.01
2,274,189
LOMA NEGRA
3,085
-2.14%
+2.32%
3,153
3,200
3,085
110,621
BYMA
237.00
-1.46%
+5.80%
240.50
246.00
236.50
687,747
TELECOM ARG
3,870
-3.31%
+22.00%
4,003
4,108
3,870
11,330
GLOBANT
42.42
-5.73%
-31.91%
45.00
45.00
42.35
257,828
MERCADOLIBRE
1,700
+1.89%
-26.07%
1,669
1,728
1,672
504,596
03 Why it moved — oil’s slide and a nervous backdrop
First and heaviest, oil. The USO fund fell 8.07%, and Argentine oil and gas shares listed in New York fell by as much as 8.7%, with Vista Energy the weakest.
At home YPF lost 6.7%, Pampa 5.1% and Transportadora de Gas del Sur, the gas pipeline operator, 2.2%. Confidence: high.
Second, bank and utility stocks gave back ground in sympathy. Grupo Galicia fell 1.7%, BBVA Argentina 2.1%, Banco Supervielle 1.5% and Central Puerto, a power generator, 2.0%, while Banco Macro held at −0.1%. Confidence: medium.
Third, local nerves. Country risk, the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds, was already near its highest since the 2025 elections, with worries over 2027 debt payments and a peso that is lagging inflation.
The usual drivers disagree with the move: the dollar index fell 0.37% and the US 10-year yield dropped 5 basis points, both normally kind to emerging markets. That is why we rank oil first, at medium-to-high confidence.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| YPF (YPFD) | US$15m traded | −6.7% | State-controlled oil leader; the day’s biggest drag |
| Grupo Galicia (GGAL) | US$11m traded | −1.7% | Largest private bank by market weight |
| Banco Macro (BMA) | US$4m traded | −0.1% | Barely moved |
| Pampa Energía (PAMP) | US$4m traded | −5.1% | Power and gas producer; tied to energy prices |
| Transener (TRAN) | US$3m traded | −0.7% | Electricity transmission operator |
| Central Puerto (CEPU) | Turnover — | −2.0% | Power generator |
| Ternium Argentina (TXAR) | US$2m traded | +3.2% | Steel maker; best performer |
| BYMA (exchange operator) | US$2m traded | +1.2% | Runs the Buenos Aires exchange |
Percentages in the table are Buenos Aires closes in pesos, so they differ slightly from the New York dollar figures above. The pattern is clean: oil and power fell hardest, while steel and the exchange operator itself rose. Ternium Argentina’s 3.2% gain and BYMA’s 1.2% show the market was selective, not broken.
Cross-listed shares behaved differently. MercadoLibre’s CEDEAR (a Buenos Aires certificate tracking a US share) rose 5.0% and Google’s 4.0%, but these are foreign companies and mostly follow the US tape and the dollar.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +1.23% |
| IPC | Mexico | +1.71% |
| IPSA | Chile | +2.52% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | −0.84% |
| S&P/BVL | Peru | +1.88% |
Four of five regional benchmarks rose, so Argentina’s fall was a local story. Colombia, which also exports oil, was the other loser with its COLCAP index down 0.84%.
For Latin America the oil slide splits winners from losers. Importers gained: the Chilean peso strengthened as USD/CLP fell 1.58%, and the Mexican peso as USD/MXN dropped 1.12%.
Colombia’s peso weakened, with USD/COP up 0.75%. The live market board above carries all the closes.
06 The technical picture
On the chart, we have no verified Merval close or 52-week range for the index, so we do not mark index levels today; YPF’s close of US$41.61 in New York is the cleaner gauge of the energy hit.
For the peso, the line is 1,551, the 12-month high for the dollar set on 3 November. The 12-month low of 1,355, reached on 13 April, shows how far the peso has slid since spring.
Even so, the dollar is still far from the top of the central bank’s official trading band, which is why local commentary called trading orderly.
07 What to watch
- Oil price: Crude fell hard on peace hopes. If it keeps sliding, YPF and Pampa face more pressure; a rebound would help Argentine shares recover.
- The peso at 1,551: A close above 1,551 per dollar would set a new 12-month high for the dollar and test confidence.
- Country risk and debt: Argentina’s bond spread is near its highest since the 2025 elections. Worries over 2027 debt payments and IMF repayments keep it in focus.
- Reform and privatisation: The government delayed the Belgrano Cargas rail freight sale to 21 December and withdrew an income-tax bill, which are signals on reform momentum.
Background: Argentina Risk Gauge Jumps 3%, Stocks Fall.
Background: Argentina’s YPF Falls 6.9% as Shares Slide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Argentine shares fall while other markets rose?
Argentina’s biggest listed companies are heavy in energy, such as YPF and Pampa, and oil prices fell sharply. Most other regional indices lean more on banks and miners, which rose.
What is the Merval?
It is the main stock index of Buenos Aires, tracking the biggest companies listed on the local exchange. We had no verified close for it on 4 November, so this report follows its biggest members instead.
What happened to the Argentine peso?
The peso strengthened slightly, with the dollar at 1,548 pesos, down 0.21%. That is still just 0.2% below the dollar’s 12-month high of 1,551.
Which Argentine shares fell most?
Vista Energy, a shale oil producer, fell 8.7% in New York, YPF 7.1% and Pampa Energía 5.4%, while Banco Macro lost only 0.5%.
Market data: The Rio Times; exchange figures from BYMA
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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