Merval Gains 0.3% as Country Risk Stays at 646 | Argentina Markets, Oct 2
Key Facts
- The Merval index gained 0.32% to close at 2,767,663 points, a partial recovery in cautious trading
- The peso was stable around ARS1,524 per dollar, a 0.04% strengthening against the US currency
- Country risk stood at 646 basis points, after touching 655 earlier in the day, its highest level this year
- Energy shares led the recovery with YPF gaining 0.6% and Pampa Energía rising 0.6%
- Investors continued to weigh Milei’s reform agenda against high sovereign borrowing costs and political noise
Today’s Focus
Argentina’s benchmark Merval stock index rose 0.32% to close at 2,767,663 points on Friday, a modest recovery after a bruising week in which the country’s borrowing costs spiked.
The improvement was restrained by country risk, which closed at 646 basis points after touching 655 earlier in the session — its most elevated level of the year.
The peso strengthened a touch against the dollar, with the official exchange rate closing near ARS1,524 per greenback, down 0.04%.
Trading remained defensive overall, with turnover concentrated in a handful of liquid names like YPF and Grupo Galicia.
What matters today. Argentina’s reform trade is stabilising, but investors are still demanding a high premium to hold its assets.
01 The session in one read
Argentina’s main stock index, the Merval, ended Friday’s session up 0.32% at 2,767,663 points. It was a measured bounce after several days of pressure from a surging country-risk premium.
The JP Morgan measure of Argentina’s sovereign borrowing cost, known as country risk, closed at 646 basis points. That was below an intraday peak of 655, its highest level so far in 2026.
The peso barely moved, closing around ARS1,524 per US dollar. The central bank bought USD35 million in the official market, according to Infobae.
No single blockbuster event moved the market. Instead, traders squared positions ahead of a politically sensitive weekend, content to hold the biggest, most liquid stocks rather than chase risk.
Friday’s gains were real but shallow, driven more by a positive session on Wall Street than by fresh domestic conviction. Country risk remains elevated at 646 basis points, close to its 2026 high, which signals that foreign investors still see meaningful repayment risk in Argentine sovereign debt. The peso’s stability offers some reassurance. The variable to watch is whether the JP Morgan EMBI spread falls decisively below 640 or makes another run at its 655 high.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval index | 2,767,663 | +0.32% | Partial recovery after a testing week |
| Peso (USD/ARS) | 1,524 | −0.04% | Firm within the managed trading band |
| Country risk (EMBI) | 646 bp | — | Intraday high 655 bp, a 2026 high |
The Merval’s advance was positive but anaemic, reflecting a market still nursing wounds from a sharp rise in sovereign borrowing costs earlier in the week.
The peso’s tiny gain against the dollar kept it within the creeping-peg band that the Milei administration has used.
Country risk at 646 basis points means investors are still asking for roughly 6.46 percentage points of extra annual yield, compared with a US Treasury bond, to hold Argentine debt.
Calendar, 2 October. RT lists no Argentine data releases for the day. The US employment report was the main global release: nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 (forecast 90,000, previous 162,000 revised to 133,000) and unemployment rose to 4.2% (forecast 4.1%). Wall Street rose on the day, with the S&P 500 up 0.73%, and Argentine shares that track global risk appetite gained modestly.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
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Argentina — Live Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,767,663 | +0.32% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
03 Why it moved — a partial recovery with the reform trade on guard
Country risk closed at 646 basis points after touching a 2026 high of 655 earlier in the day, and some of the heavily sold energy and banking shares recovered.
A positive close on Wall Street also helped, with the S&P 500 up 0.73%. Argentina’s most liquid stocks often trade as a proxy for global risk appetite, especially when local news is mixed.
At 646 basis points, country risk is still close to its 2026 high, so there is no clear reversal yet.
Traders are still trying to price the Milei reform trade, a bet that fiscal discipline and liberalisation can eventually tame inflation and reopen capital markets. Friday showed a market that wants to believe, but is not yet ready to commit.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| YPF | ARS8,050 | +0.6% | Energy bellwether |
| Grupo Galicia | ARS5,835 | −0.5% | Largest private bank |
| Pampa Energía | ARS4,972.50 | +0.6% | Energy recovery led the upside |
| Banco Macro | — | −0.8% | Banking lagged as risk stays elevated |
| BYMA | — | +3.7% | Biggest domestic gainer of the day |
| Transportadora Gas del Norte (TGNO4) | — | +1.0% | Utility share ticked higher |
YPF, the state-controlled oil and gas giant, gained 0.6% to close at ARS8,050 (about US$5.28) in Buenos Aires.
Grupo Galicia, one of Argentina’s largest private banks, slipped 0.5%. The banking sector remains sensitive to sovereign risk because lenders hold large quantities of government paper.
The standout gainer was BYMA, the exchange operator itself, which surged 3.7%. Cross-listed US shares such as Nvidia, AMD and Google parent Alphabet also rose, reflecting Wall Street’s strength rather than domestic conditions.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Merval | Argentina | +0.32% |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +2.63% |
| IPC | Mexico | −0.18% |
| IPSA | Chile | +0.08% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | — |
| BVL Perú | Peru | +0.18% |
Brazil’s Ibovespa was the regional star on Friday, surging 2.63% to 192,115 points on election-week positioning and domestic rate expectations.
Mexico’s IPC slipped 0.18%. The live market board above carries current closing levels for all regional indices.
06 The technical picture
The Merval closed at 2,767,663, up 0.32% from Thursday’s close of about 2,758,840.
The nearest round-number levels are 2,775,000 on the upside and 2,740,000 on the downside.
For the peso, RT shows ARS1,524 per dollar; Infobae reported the wholesale rate near ARS1,520.
07 What to watch
- Country risk evolution: Whether the EMBI spread retreats below 640 or pushes back toward 700, the key barometer for foreign investor confidence
- Milei policy signals: Any fresh statement from President Milei or Economy Minister Caputo on fiscal targets, the exchange-rate band, or liberalisation timelines
- Energy earnings and capex: YPF and Pampa Energía remain bellwethers for the investable reform trade, with Vaca Muerta production and export routes in focus
- Sovereign bonds: Argentine bonds gained about 0.7% on average on Friday, according to Infobae; a lasting bond recovery would help pull country risk lower
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Merval?
The Merval is Argentina’s main stock index, tracking the largest and most traded companies listed on the Buenos Aires exchange.
Why does country risk matter for Argentine stocks?
Country risk measures what extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine bonds over US Treasuries. When it rises, local stocks often fall because tighter funding conditions hurt the economy and company valuations.
What is the Milei reform trade?
It is a wager that President Javier Milei’s programme of fiscal discipline, deregulation and liberalisation will eventually lower inflation and reopen access to international capital, lifting asset prices across the board.
Why did YPF lead trading?
YPF is Argentina’s flagship energy producer and the most liquid domestic share. Its fortunes are closely tied to the Vaca Muerta shale play and to government energy policy, making it a natural home for both local and foreign money.
Market data: RT; exchange figures from BYMA
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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