Argentina Debt Risk Falls, Shares Slip 1% | Argentina Market Report, Nov 12
Key Facts
- Argentina’s Merval fell about 1%, to roughly 82,500 points, as Wall Street slipped after the head of chip giant Nvidia resigned.
- The peso barely moved: the US dollar closed at about 1,545 pesos on the wholesale market, up 0.03%, 0.4% below its 12-month high of 1,551.
- Bonds rebounded: country risk, the extra yield investors demand on Argentina’s dollar bonds, fell to about 830 points.
- Bank shares sold off in New York: Banco Macro lost 3.5%, BBVA Argentina 2.9% and Grupo Galicia 2.8%, while oil group YPF slipped 0.4%.
- Inflation beat forecasts: INDEC, the national statistics office, reported 2.2% for October, above the 1.9% in the RT economic calendar.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a real-money prediction market, gives 93.2% to Argentina’s 2026 annual inflation landing between 30% and 34.9% (US$100,556 traded, 7:41 p.m. ET, 12 November).
Today’s Focus
Argentina’s main stock index, the Merval, fell about 1% to roughly 82,500 points on Thursday, while the country’s dollar bonds recovered. The peso barely stirred at about 1,545 per US dollar.
Think of Thursday as a day of two moods. Shares followed Wall Street down, but bond investors, who had been selling Argentina all week, bought back in, and the extra yield they demand fell to about 830 points.
Two pushes came together. The US 10-year Treasury yield, the rate Washington pays to borrow for a decade, rose to 5.10%, and Argentina’s October inflation came in at 2.2% against the 1.9% economists expected.
What matters today. Argentine banks hold much of the government’s debt, so their New York-listed shares are the quickest signal of how investors feel about the bond market.
01 The session in one read
Wall Street’s wobble reached Buenos Aires. The Merval, the main index of the Buenos Aires exchange, fell about 1% to roughly 82,500 points, as the S&P 500, the benchmark of 500 large US companies, lost 0.35% and the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose 6.92% to 18.70.
The trigger on Wall Street was Nvidia, the AI chip maker, whose shares fell 4.3% on the day its chief executive, Jensen Huang, resigned. Argentine shares trading in New York fell with the tech-heavy mood.
The peso told a calmer story. The dollar closed at about 1,545 pesos, up 0.03%, so Argentines and visitors changing money saw almost no difference from the day before.
The evidence points to an external squeeze on shares and a relief rally in bonds. Higher US yields and a firmer dollar hurt emerging-market shares, yet Argentina’s dollar bonds rebounded about 1.3% on average, which suggests investors are not fleeing the country. Inflation at 2.2% was hotter than forecast, but the peso’s calm limits the damage. The variable to watch is the US 10-year yield, since a further climb from 5.10% could turn a one-day dip into a trend.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval close | about 82,500 | −1% | Shares followed Wall Street lower |
| Country risk (JP Morgan) | about 830 points | — | Down on the day as bonds rebounded |
| USD/ARS (pesos per US dollar) | 1,545 | +0.03% | Peso flat on the day |
| USD/ARS over 20 sessions | 1,545 | +2.12% | Peso weaker over four weeks |
| USD/ARS 12-month high | 1,551 (3 November) | −0.4% below | Dollar sits just under its peak |
| USD/ARS 12-month low | 1,355 (13 April) | +14.0% above | Peso much weaker than in spring |
| Key technical level | 1,551 | — | The dollar’s ceiling so far |
The table shows two markets telling different stories. Shares fell while the currency stayed put and bonds recovered, which usually means investors are repricing companies rather than abandoning the country.
The slow-motion story is in the peso: the dollar is up 2.12% over 20 sessions, so the peso has been weakening steadily. It is a drift, not a lurch, and the dollar is still 14.0% above its 12-month low of 1,355 reached on 13 April. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,848,945
—
-10.97%
2,859,051
—
—
—
USD/ARS
1,545
+0.03%
+9.69%
1,545
1,545
1,545
—
YPF
6,250
+0.56%
+11.50%
6,215
6,350
5,935
2,646,563
GGAL
4,870
-2.16%
-40.83%
4,978
5,135
4,770
2,701,174
PAMPA
4,233
-0.06%
-20.44%
4,235
4,320
4,100
1,251,850
TXAR
675.00
-1.17%
-20.86%
683.00
691.50
661.50
1,949,350
ALUAR
750.00
-2.09%
-30.66%
766.00
770.00
745.00
474,169
TGS
7,080
+0.14%
-21.62%
7,070
7,320
6,840
393,385
CEPU
1,720
+1.59%
-22.36%
1,693
1,798
1,611
1,071,546
MIRGOR
1,685
-5.60%
-92.58%
1,785
1,795
1,680
23,889
COME
32.15
-0.16%
-57.14%
32.20
33.50
31.10
3,936,050
LOMA NEGRA
2,873
-2.05%
-17.61%
2,933
2,990
2,853
135,494
BYMA
199.25
+0.89%
-31.44%
197.50
201.75
190.00
14,253,881
TELECOM ARG
3,470
-1.14%
-6.42%
3,510
3,625
3,380
172,177
GLOBANT
45.75
-1.27%
-27.20%
46.34
46.66
45.38
709,382
MERCADOLIBRE
1,475
-2.44%
-27.37%
1,512
1,500
1,472
515,334
03 US yields, hot inflation and a shaky Wall Street
The first and heaviest cause was the US bond market, with medium-to-high confidence. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.10% from 4.98% on Tuesday (the US bond market was shut on Wednesday), and the dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of rivals, rose 0.25% to 103.17.
Higher US yields pull money back towards safe American assets and away from emerging markets such as Argentina.
The second cause was local, with medium confidence. INDEC, the national statistics office, reported October consumer prices up 2.2% on the month, above the 1.9% consensus in the RT economic calendar.
The third cause was a shaky Wall Street, with medium confidence. Nvidia fell 4.3% on the day its chief executive resigned, and Argentine bank shares in New York fell with it: Banco Macro 3.5%, BBVA Argentina 2.9% and Grupo Galicia 2.8%.
One signal disagreed with the stock market. Argentina’s dollar bonds rebounded and country risk fell to about 830 points, and oil rose about 3% (the USO fund gained 3.25%), which helped energy names such as YPF and Central Puerto.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 5.10% | 4.98% on Tuesday | Biggest outside pressure on emerging markets |
| Banco Macro (BMA, New York) | US$55.23 | −3.5% | Bank; the weakest of the group |
| BBVA Argentina (BBAR, New York) | US$10.35 | −2.9% | Bank |
| Grupo Galicia (GGAL, New York) | US$29.04 | −2.8% | Largest private bank |
| Pampa Energía (PAM, New York) | US$63.21 | −0.6% | Power and gas producer |
| YPF (YPF, New York) | US$37.20 | −0.4% | Oil company; held up as oil rose |
| Central Puerto (CEPU, New York) | US$10.31 | +1.2% | Power generator; gainer |
Banks supplied the weight of the fall. Macro, BBVA Argentina and Galicia all lost between 2.8% and 3.5% in New York, while energy names held up as oil rose.
These are American depositary receipts, shares of Argentine companies traded in New York in US dollars, so their moves mix local news with Wall Street’s mood.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | −0.43% |
| IPC | Mexico | −0.27% |
| IPSA | Chile | +0.69% |
| Merval | Argentina | about −1% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | — |
| BVL | Peru | — |
Three of the four markets we could verify fell, so the mood was cautious across Latin America, with Chile’s IPSA the only riser. We show a dash where we could not verify the day’s close. The live market board above carries the full closes.
For Brazilian investors the pain was in the currency: the real weakened 1.05% against the dollar to 5.6413. Chile’s peso lost 1.17% to 994.3 even as its shares rose, Mexico’s peso was flat at 18.602, and Colombia’s peso traded near 3,300 per dollar.
06 The technical picture
The dollar’s chart has a clear ceiling: 1,551, set on 3 November, and it closed just 0.4% below it. A close above that level would be a fresh 12-month high for the dollar against the peso.
On the downside, 1,355 from 13 April is a distant floor, and the round number of 1,500 is the nearer psychological marker. We could not verify a 12-month range for the Merval, so we do not quote chart levels for it.
07 What to watch
- Inflation reaction: How banks trade after the 2.2% October reading, which beat the 1.9% consensus, shows whether the market now expects tighter policy.
- US yields: The 10-year Treasury yield at 5.10% is the outside pressure; a further climb would test Argentine shares again.
- Dollar at 1,551: A close above 1,551 would mark a fresh 12-month high for the dollar and a new low for the peso.
- Bank shares: Macro, Galicia and BBVA Argentina, each down between 2.8% and 3.5% in New York, set the tone for the whole Merval.
- Calendar: Argentina’s leading indicator (forecast −0.2, previous −0.25) was also due on 12 November; no actual figure was in the RT economic calendar when we closed.
Background: Argentina Debt Risk Falls After Holiday.
Background: Argentina’s Steady Peso Revives Dollar Talk.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, where users bet real money, lists a market on Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026, with US$100,556 traded as of 7:41 p.m. ET, 12 November 2026. It prices a 93.2% chance of 30.0% to 34.9%, 3.0% for 25% to 29.9%, 1.1% for 35% to 39.9%, 1.1% for 45% or more and 0.2% each for below 20% and 20% to 24.9%.
These prices are bets, not polls. They show traders see a very high chance that inflation for the year stays in the low-to-mid 30s, even after a monthly reading above forecast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened to the Argentina stock market?
The Merval, Argentina’s main stock index, fell about 1% to roughly 82,500 points on Thursday, following Wall Street lower.
What is the Merval?
It is the main index of Buenos Aires’ stock exchange, a basket of the country’s largest listed companies, heavy in banks and energy.
Did the Argentine peso weaken?
Barely: the US dollar closed at about 1,545 pesos, up 0.03%, still 0.4% below its 12-month high of 1,551.
Which stocks fell most?
In New York, Banco Macro fell 3.5%, BBVA Argentina 2.9% and Grupo Galicia 2.8%, while Central Puerto rose 1.2%.
Market data: The Rio Times; exchange figures from BYMA
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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