Merval Gains 3.7% as Risk Falls to 599 | Argentina Market Report, Oct 5
Key Facts
- The S&P Merval gained 3.7% to 2,869,488 points, as Brazil’s election surprise lifted regional assets (Infobae; El Cronista).
- Country risk fell 49 points to 599, below the 600 mark. Dollar bonds rose 2.1% on average (Infobae).
- US-listed Argentine shares rose up to about 10%: Mercado Libre gained 9.6% and Banco Francés 7.7% (Infobae). The Argentina ETF ARGT rose 5.93% (RT).
- The official wholesale dollar stayed near 1,520 pesos. The central bank bought US$14 million (Infobae).
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives a 2.1% chance that Javier Milei leaves office before 2027 (US$167,000 traded). Bets, not polls. Stand: 8:38 pm ET, 5 October.
Today’s Focus
Argentine stocks and bonds rallied on Monday, pulled by Brazil. The S&P Merval, the main index of the Buenos Aires exchange, gained 3.7% to 2,869,488 points. Argentina’s country risk fell to 599 basis points.
Country risk is the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds instead of US Treasuries. A fall means cheaper borrowing for the state and for companies.
What matters today. For US investors, Argentine ADRs and bonds jumped together, which shows how closely Buenos Aires follows the regional mood.
01 The session in one read
The Merval closed at 2,869,488 points, up 3.7% in pesos. It had lost 4.4% the week before and fell 7.1% in September (El Cronista).
Argentine shares listed abroad rose up to about 10%. Dollar bonds, the Bonares and Globales, gained 2.1% on average. Country risk fell 49 points, or 7.6%, to 599 (Infobae).
The official wholesale dollar ended near 1,520 pesos, roughly unchanged from Friday.
The driver was Brazil. Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead surprised the polls, and Brazil’s Ibovespa gained 7.70%.
The rally follows a hard September, so part of it is a bounce. The shared cause is Brazil, not a change in Argentine data.
A calm peso market made it easier for bonds and stocks to rise together.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | 2,869,488 | +3.7% | Rebound after a 7.1% fall in September |
| Country risk (JP Morgan) | 599 bps | −7.6% | Down 49 points |
| Dollar bonds (Bonares, Globales) | — | +2.1% | Average gain |
| USD/ARS wholesale | about 1,520 | — | Roughly unchanged |
| ARGT (US-listed Argentina ETF) | US$89.53 | +5.93% | Dollar-based investors |
A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, so 599 basis points means an extra yield of 5.99 points over US Treasuries.
The RT feed shows the wholesale peso at 1,520 against 1,524.88 a session earlier. Infobae reports no change on the day. The two sources agree within rounding. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,869,488
+3.68%
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
YPF
7,810
+0.26%
+72.84%
7,790
7,850
7,600
1,763,858
GGAL
6,980
-0.78%
+1.82%
7,035
7,115
6,920
1,564,062
PAMPA
5,115
+0.69%
+26.70%
5,080
5,140
5,000
721,190
TXAR
747.50
-2.35%
+18.67%
765.50
770.00
742.50
771,892
ALUAR
938.00
-1.21%
+29.83%
949.50
951.00
932.50
135,426
TGS
8,870
-0.17%
+15.05%
8,885
9,075
8,720
143,546
CEPU
2,156
+1.84%
+28.36%
2,117
2,165
2,086
404,146
MIRGOR
1,650
-1.20%
-92.90%
1,670
1,670
1,635
20,877
COME
40.93
-0.73%
-30.47%
41.23
41.60
40.50
4,258,884
LOMA NEGRA
3,130
+0.08%
+5.80%
3,128
3,205
3,090
182,992
BYMA
275.00
-1.70%
+35.14%
279.75
282.50
272.00
1,409,575
TELECOM ARG
4,233
-0.70%
+55.19%
4,263
4,335
4,160
31,896
GLOBANT
38.10
-2.26%
-49.65%
38.98
38.70
36.77
793,552
MERCADOLIBRE
1,870
-3.59%
-20.71%
1,940
1,927
1,870
329,640
03 Why it moved — Brazil’s vote and cheaper credit
Brazil’s election was the trigger. Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of the first-round vote, ahead of the polls, and Brazilian stocks jumped (Infobae). Funds that own both markets added Argentine assets in the same session.
The drop in country risk below 600 matters on its own. It lowers the cost of financing for Argentine companies that borrow in dollars.
Wall Street was firm as well, with US indexes up between 0.2% and 1.1% (Infobae).
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercado Libre (MELI, New York) | +9.6% | — | Largest ADR gain in Infobae’s list |
| Banco Francés (ADR) | +7.7% | — | Lender |
| Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL, New York) | +6.58% | — | Lender, RT close |
| Banco Macro (BMA, New York) | +6.55% | — | Lender, RT close |
| YPF (YPF, New York) | +3.16% | — | Oil producer, RT close |
Banks and the e-commerce group led the US-listed gains. Local closes in pesos were also higher: Galicia and Banco Macro gained about 5% in Buenos Aires (RT), and YPF gained 2.17%.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +7.70% |
| S&P Merval | Argentina | +3.68% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | +2.69% |
| S&P IPSA | Chile | +1.91% |
| S&P/BMV IPC | Mexico | +0.69% |
Argentina was the region’s second-strongest market after Brazil. Colombia and Chile followed, and Mexico trailed.
06 The technical picture
The Merval’s gain only retraces part of the recent losses. It fell 4.4% last week and 7.1% in September, so Monday’s close is a rebound, not yet a trend.
Country risk at 599 is just under the 600 mark that traders watch. Friday’s close was near 650, with press readings of 648 and 655. A return to that area would signal that the rebound is fading.
07 What to watch
- Brazil’s runoff, 25 October: A narrowing in the polls would hit Argentine assets as well.
- Industrial production for August, Wednesday 7 October, 19:00 UTC: Forecast −0.8% against −4.9% before (RT calendar).
- Country risk: Whether it stays below 600.
- September inflation: Polymarket traders price a monthly rate of 1.9% to 2.1% at 55%.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket traders give Javier Milei a 2.1% chance of leaving office before 2027 (US$167,481 traded). For the September monthly inflation rate, Polymarket prices a reading of 1.9% to 2.1% at 55% and 1.6% to 1.8% at 27.5% (US$24,464 traded). Readings from 8:38 pm ET on 5 October.
These prices are bets by traders, not forecasts by the statistics office.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Background: Merval Gains 0.3% as Country Risk Stays at 646 | Argentina Markets, Oct 2.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the S&P Merval?
It is Argentina’s main stock index. It tracks the most traded companies on the Buenos Aires exchange.
What is country risk?
It is the extra yield that investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds over US Treasuries. On Monday it fell to 599 basis points.
Why did Argentine assets rise on Monday?
Brazil’s first round surprised the polls and lifted Brazilian assets. Argentine stocks and bonds followed.
Where is the official dollar?
The wholesale rate ended near 1,520 pesos per US dollar, roughly unchanged.
Sources: Infobae, El Cronista, BAE Negocios, RT, Polymarket. Market data: RT; exchange figures from BYMA.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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