BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA · COMMODITIES
Key Facts
- The country Brazil is a leading soybean exporter, and neighbouring Argentina a leading exporter of soybean meal and oil.
- What happened The November soybean contract closed at US$12.4125 a bushel in Chicago on Monday 26 October 2026, down 15.25 cents (1.21%).
- Why Brazil’s real fell sharply after President Lula’s win on Sunday, which lets Brazilian exporters sell soybeans more cheaply abroad.
- Also weighing A fast US harvest and a large Brazilian crop were already pushing prices lower before the vote.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
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Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
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Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
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As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
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Soybeans in Chicago touched a two-month low on Monday 26 October 2026, a day after Luiz Inácio Lula won a fourth term as Brazil’s president. The November contract closed at US$12.4125 a bushel (about US$456 a tonne), down 15.25 cents, after sliding to about US$12.325 at midday.
Chicago, home of the Chicago Board of Trade, the main US exchange for farm futures, sets the benchmark price for soybeans sold worldwide. The drop matters to US farmers still harvesting, and in Brazil and Argentina, where the fall of the real lets exporters undercut rivals in China.
How Far Soybean Prices Fell
The November contract for soybeans opened Monday more than 1% lower, near US$12.42 a bushel, and slid to about US$12.325 by midday in Brasília. It recovered part of that loss and settled at US$12.4125, down 15.25 cents or 1.21%, as demand from China steadied the market.
On Friday 23 October the contract closed at US$12.565, up 0.28% on the day but lower on the week. The market had already lost ground for two weeks in a row before Monday’s drop.
Brazil’s real was holding close to 5.00 per US dollar on Friday, before the vote, when the dollar closed at 4.9931 reais (US$1). At its peak on Monday the dollar touched about 5.60 reais (US$1), a rise of roughly 12%, before easing back toward 5.41.
Why a Weak Real Hurts Chicago
Brazilian farmers sell soybeans in US dollars but pay most of their costs in reais. When the real falls, each dollar buys more reais at home, so Brazilian exporters can accept a lower dollar price and still earn a profit.
That gives Brazil room to undercut rival suppliers, and market analysts in Argentina say Argentina, the United States and Paraguay could lose export share. Traders had been expecting the real to weaken after the runoff, even though it had strengthened after the first round.
Lula won Sunday’s runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator, with 51.79% of valid votes. The real had firmed after the first round on 4 October, so Monday’s reversal was sharp.
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Brazil — Live Market Board
-14.69%
174,959.47
-14.69%
69,879.62
-0.01%
10,575.59
-1.59%
3,017,221
—
2,487.00
-2.09%
57,093.72
-0.06%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,959.47 | -14.69% | +21.85% | 205,082.56 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
A Heavy Supply Picture
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) says 64% of the American soybean area was harvested by 18 October, up 18 points in a week. That is close to the five-year average of 65%, and mild weather in the Midwest is helping combines keep moving.
Chinese demand has helped, but not enough. The USDA reported net US sales of about 2.84 million tonnes in the week to 15 October, including about 2.18 million tonnes to China.
Brazil’s 2026/27 crop is off to a quick start, with Conab, the national supply agency, counting 30.1% planted against 21.4% a year earlier. Imea, a Mato Grosso farm institute, put that state at 75.81% by 23 October.
The USDA’s agricultural office in Brasília projects a Brazilian crop of 184 million tonnes and exports of 117.5 million tonnes. The same report sees Brazil’s soybean stocks at the end of the season falling about 35%, to 3.96 million tonnes.
What It Means for US Readers
American growers still bringing in the crop face a lower price from local grain buyers, though China’s purchases have kept the market from sliding further. A cheaper Brazilian real adds pressure as Brazil’s new crop, now being planted, heads for harvest early next year.
Investors who follow farm markets through funds that hold soybean futures, such as the Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB), see the move in the fund price. The grain traders Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Bunge, which ship crops from both Americas, watch the same price and currency swings.
What It Means for Argentina and Brazil
In Brazil, a weaker real raises the reais value of each dollar sale, which softens the Chicago drop for growers. Sales have been thin, as producers held back and buyers resisted big deals, says Cepea, a farm-price centre at the University of São Paulo.
Cepea says export prices for 2027 shipments are at their lowest since August, while crushers’ group Abiove expects record processing. Argentina, the world’s biggest exporter of soybean meal and oil, sees lower Chicago prices cut its crop value and sharpen competition from a cheaper Brazil.
What Is Not Known
Tuesday’s trading will show whether Monday’s two-month low holds, after a settlement of US$12.4125. The USDA’s weekly harvest report, due Monday afternoon in Washington, will show how far the harvest has moved beyond 64%.
How far the real settles depends on whom Lula picks to run the economy and what his government says about spending. China’s next purchases of US and Brazilian beans are also unknown.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did soybean prices fall on 26 October 2026?
The November contract settled at US$12.4125 a bushel, down 15.25 cents or 1.21% from Friday’s close of US$12.565. It slid to about US$12.325 at midday, the lowest in about two months.
Why did the Brazil election move soybean prices?
Brazil’s real fell sharply after Lula’s win, and a weaker real lets Brazilian exporters offer the crop at lower dollar prices. A fast US harvest and big crop forecasts added to the pressure.
Does a weak real help Brazilian soybean farmers?
Soybeans are sold in dollars, so a weaker real raises what each sale is worth in reais. It does not lift the dollar price, which fell in Chicago.
What does the drop mean for US farmers?
US growers selling now receive less per bushel than a week ago, although Chinese buying has limited the fall. Cheaper Brazilian supply could keep prices under pressure later.
How is Argentina affected?
Argentina competes with Brazil for soybean meal and oil buyers, so a cheaper Brazilian currency sharpens that rivalry. Lower Chicago prices also reduce the dollar value of Argentina’s crop.
What is a bushel of soybeans?
A bushel of soybeans weighs about 27 kilograms, so a tonne holds roughly 36.7 bushels. Chicago futures are quoted in US dollars per bushel.
Sources: La Nación (Argentina), 26 October 2026; Notícias Agrícolas, Monday close, 26 October 2026; Notícias Agrícolas, Monday open, 26 October 2026; Notícias Agrícolas, Friday close, 23 October 2026; Safras & Mercado, 23 October 2026; Cepea via Notícias Agrícolas, 26 October 2026; USDA attaché via Notícias Agrícolas, 25 October 2026; USDA NASS Crop Progress, 19 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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