BRAZIL · MARKETS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy, home to about 210 million consumers and a stock market that many US funds own.
- What happened Brazil retail stocks plunge on Monday 26 October 2026, the first trading day after President Lula won a fourth term.
- The numbers Magazine Luiza lost more than half its value during the session, while Assaí, C&A and Renner fell between 35% and 49%.
- The cause Investors expect higher interest rates for longer, which hurts chains that sell on credit and carry heavy debt.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
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Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come · Brazil election poll data (CSV)
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil retail stocks plunge on Monday 26 October 2026, as the biggest shopping chains lose up to 59% of their value during the session. The sell-off followed the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, who won a fourth term in the Brazil election 2026.
Magazine Luiza, known as Magalu, sells electronics and household goods, and its shares fell from 12.69 reais (US$2.54) on Friday to about 5.30 reais (US$1.06). Chains that sell on credit were hit hardest because investors expect borrowing costs to stay high.
Which Brazil Retail Stocks Fell Most
Magalu lost between 54% and 59% of its value during the day, the deepest fall among the large retailers. C&A Brasil, a clothing chain, dropped about 49%, and Assaí, a cash-and-carry wholesale supermarket group, fell roughly 40% to 42%.
Lojas Renner, a department-store chain, and Azzas 2154, a fashion group, each lost about 35% to 38%. All of these figures are from the trading session, which had not closed when this article was written.
Why Interest Rates Hit Shopping Chains Hardest
Brazil’s central bank cut its benchmark rate, the Selic, to 13.75% a year in September, which is still among the highest of any large economy. Many Brazilians buy electronics and furniture in monthly instalments, so every rise in borrowing costs cuts sales.
Contracts that bet on future interest rates jumped by roughly 3 percentage points for 2031, with long-dated rates above 15%. Investors fear that four more years of high government spending will keep rates up and slow the cuts they had hoped for.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-14.69%
174,959.47
-14.69%
69,879.62
-0.01%
10,575.59
-1.59%
3,017,221
—
2,487.00
-2.09%
57,093.72
-0.06%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,959.47 | -14.69% | +21.85% | 205,082.56 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
Brazil Retail Stocks Lose the October Rally
Before the vote, investors had backed Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who promised tighter public finances. Brazil retail stocks had surged in October on that hope, and Magalu had gained about 66% in October up to Friday 23 October.
On Monday that whole gain disappeared within hours. Lula won the runoff by about 51.8% to 48.2% of valid votes, according to the electoral court, a margin of about 4.4 million votes.
The Wider Sell-Off in Brazil
The Ibovespa, the main index of the São Paulo exchange B3, fell about 15% in the afternoon after dropping almost 17% earlier. We cover the trading halt at the open and the real’s slide against the dollar separately.
Cyrela, a large homebuilder, lost more than 40% as higher rates make mortgages dearer. Only a handful of the 76 index stocks rose, mostly exporters such as Suzano, Vale and Embraer that earn dollars.
Casas Bahia and the Debt Problem
Casas Bahia, a furniture and appliance chain that is already in court-supervised debt restructuring, also fell sharply on the day, as Brazilian market outlets reported. The chain carries heavy debt, so it has little cushion.
Brazil retail stocks also face a weaker real, which raises the cost of imported goods, and higher rates raise the cost of refinancing debt. Chains that were already stretched, such as Casas Bahia, have the least room to absorb both.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazilian stocks are held by many US funds, so the sell-off reaches American portfolios. Mercado Livre, the Latin American online marketplace listed on Nasdaq, saw its Brazilian-listed receipts lose nearly 13%.
US investors with Brazilian exposure should expect high volatility this week, and the shares most tied to household credit carry the most risk. American exporters of consumer goods to Brazil may also face a weaker buyer as the real loses value against the dollar.
What Is Not Known
Final closing prices for Brazil retail stocks were not yet available when this article was written, and many shares were moving in auctions. Brazil’s central bank said it is too early to judge how the jump in the dollar will feed through to prices.
It is not known whether Lula will name a finance team that calms investors or whether the central bank will change its rate path. Companies have not yet said how the sell-off affects their plans for Black Friday and Christmas.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Brazil retail stocks fall so much on 26 October?
Investors had bet on a Flávio Bolsonaro win and tighter public spending. Lula’s victory pushed up expected interest rates, which hurts chains that sell on credit.
Which Brazilian retailer fell the most?
Magazine Luiza, known as Magalu, lost between 54% and 59% of its value during the session. It was the largest fall among the big chains.
Is the fall a sign that Brazil’s shops are going bust?
No, the fall in Brazil retail stocks reflects expected interest rates and investor positions, not new store closures or bankruptcies. Casas Bahia, however, was already in court-supervised restructuring before the vote.
How does this affect US investors?
US funds that track Brazil are exposed to the fall. Brazilian exporters rose, so losses were uneven.
What is the Selic?
The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, set by the central bank, and it stands at 13.75% a year after a cut in September. It guides the cost of loans for shoppers and companies.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 26 October 2026; InfoMoney, 26 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 26 October 2026; Money Times, 26 October 2026; BPMoney, 26 October 2026; Guia do Investidor, 26 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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