Key Facts
—Currency. The dollar jumped about 8.7% to R$5.42 in the first minutes of trading, from R$4.99 on Friday.
—Stocks. Futures on the Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, fell almost 15%, near a floor set by exchange B3.
—Why. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election on Sunday with 51.79% of valid votes.
—Next. Brazil’s share market opens at 10 a.m. in Brasília (9 a.m. ET), an hour after futures.
—Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come · Brazil election poll data (CSV)
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil’s markets lurched at the Monday open, and the exchange had already moved its guardrails. Within minutes of trading starting at 9 a.m. in Brasília (8 a.m. ET), the dollar jumped about 8.7% against the real, Brazil’s currency, which lost about 8% of its value, and futures on the Ibovespa fell almost 15%.
The trigger was Sunday’s runoff, in which Lula won a new term with 51.79% of valid votes (blank and spoiled ballots excluded) against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator, according to the TSE, Brazil’s electoral court. Markets had been positioning for a win by Flávio Bolsonaro, who led the first round on 4 October.
The Guardrails B3 Moved
B3, the São Paulo exchange that runs Brazil’s futures market, widened its daily limits for Monday only. Dollar futures can now rise up to 8.4% in a day, up from 6%, and Ibovespa futures can fall up to 15%, up from 10%, on every maturity including the smaller mini contracts.
The dollar’s early jump went past the old 6% ceiling, so the wider limit mattered within minutes. Stock-index futures slid to within a whisker of their new floor.
How Circuit Breakers Work
A futures limit stops a contract from moving further in a day, so a panic cannot feed on itself without a pause. Shares have a separate emergency brake, called a circuit breaker, which B3 sets in three stages: a 30-minute pause if the Ibovespa falls 10% from the previous close, a one-hour pause at 15%, and a pause of B3’s choosing at 20%.
Those pauses do not apply in the last 30 minutes of the session. The share market itself opens at 10 a.m. in Brasília (9 a.m. ET), so the first test of the stock stages comes an hour after futures opened.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+0.47%
205,082.56
+0.47%
69,879.62
-0.01%
10,746.36
-0.31%
3,017,221
—
2,540.10
+0.46%
57,021.19
+0.13%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,082.56 | +0.47% | +21.85% | 204,120.12 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
The Selloff Reaches Wall Street
In US pre-market trading, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), an exchange-traded fund that tracks large Brazilian companies, fell more than 25%. Brazilian companies listed in New York as American depositary receipts, or ADRs, were also sharply lower, among them Petrobras, the oil company, and Itaú, the bank.
US shares open at 9:30 a.m. ET, half an hour after Brazil’s share market. Prices quoted here are early moves, and they can change quickly.
What It Means for US Readers
The dollar’s jump is its biggest in one day since January. Dollar investors in Brazilian assets face a sharp repricing, and the first hour of trading will set the tone.
A weaker real also hits companies that owe dollars and helps exporters that earn them.Travellers and expats feel it at the exchange counter.If R$5.42 per dollar holds, a hotel night priced at R$500 costs about US$92, against about US$100 on Friday.
For the wider picture, see our guide to Brazil’s economy.
What Is Not Known
It is not yet known whether the share market will trigger its first circuit breaker at the 10 a.m. open, or whether B3 will keep the wider futures limits on Tuesday. Nor is it clear how much of the early move will hold once more investors trade.
This report covers market reaction, not the vote itself. Official figures come from the TSE.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Brazil’s real fall on Monday?
Investors sold Brazilian assets after President Lula won re-election on Sunday, a result markets had bet against. The dollar rose about 8.7% to R$5.42 in early trading.
What is a futures limit?
It is the largest move an exchange allows a contract to make in one day. For Monday only, B3 widened the dollar limit to 8.4% and the Ibovespa limit to 15%.
Sources: B3 exchange notices and circuit-breaker rules · TSE (electoral court) results · B3 trading data, 26 October
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief