Trump Questions Lula’s 51.79% Win in Brazil
BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —What is happening US President Donald Trump questioned Lula’s runoff win on Sunday, 25 October, saying Brazil had applied Joe Biden’s playbook, and offered no evidence of irregularities.
- —Why it matters It is the only public reaction from Washington found so far, and it lands as loser Flávio Bolsonaro says he cannot recognise the result.
- —The numbers Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%, a margin of about 4.4 million votes, with every section counted. Flávio had led the first round by 1.87 points.
- —Who is who Lula is Brazil’s leftist president, re-elected to a fourth term. Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative challenger, is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
- —What to watch Whether the White House or State Department formally recognises Lula’s win, and whether Flávio files his promised annulment challenge before the 5 January 2027 inauguration.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you A presidential comment does not change Brazil’s count, but US investors and exporters should watch whether the 25% US tariff on Brazilian goods and political friction ease or harden.
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Trump says Brazil used Joe Biden’s playbook in Lula’s runoff win. He offered no evidence, and loser Flávio Bolsonaro also rejects the result.
US President Donald Trump questioned Lula’s win in the Brazil election 2026 runoff on the evening of Sunday, 25 October. He said Brazil had just applied Joe Biden’s playbook, the Spanish news agency EFE reported.
EFE says Trump gave no evidence of irregularities. It matters to US readers because it is the first presidential-level US reaction to Lula’s fourth term found in local reports.
What Trump Said About Lula’s Win
EFE’s Spanish text, carried by Infobae with a Washington dateline, quotes Trump saying Brazil had “just applied” Biden’s playbook. None of the outlets says where he spoke, or whether he spoke or posted.
He added that Bolsonaro had a big lead in the first round and was the clear favourite in the runoff. He also said “communists” do not give up power once they win it.
Times Brasil, Cadena 3 of Argentina and Diário do País run the same words and credit the agency. All give a Spanish or Portuguese text, so the English wording here is a translation.
EFE says Trump compared the result to his own 2020 defeat by Biden, which he refused to accept. None of the outlets reports evidence of irregularities from Trump or his aides.
How the Runoff Count Ended
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) count gives Lula 64,256,232 votes (51.79%) and Flávio Bolsonaro 59,826,041 (48.21%), with all sections totalled. That is a margin of about 4.4 million votes among more than 124 million valid votes.
In the first round on Sunday, 4 October, Flávio led with 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16%, Portal de Prefeitura reported from TSE data. That was a lead of about 1.9 points, or 2.2 million votes, not the wide gap Trump described.
Polls before the runoff had pointed to a near tie, with Flávio slightly ahead, Cadena 3 reported. Lula will be sworn in on 5 January 2027, the same outlet says.
The Voting Extension Behind the Dispute
Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting on Sunday after complaints of public-transport shortages, mainly in Salvador and São Paulo. Flávio blamed that decision for a defeat he said he could not recognise.
The TSE says the extension ran until 19:00 Brasília time and applied only where polls were still open. Mix Vale reports the same, and that publication of results was delayed.
Flávio said the election should have been annulled and that recognising the result was “impossible,” Todapalavra reported. Diário do País adds that Martin De Luca, a lawyer for Trump Media and Rumble, criticised the ruling on X.
See the earlier Rio Times reports on the loser’s refusal to concede and what each side says. They cover the court fight in more detail.
Washington’s Position Before the Vote
On 15 October the State Department replied to a 24 September letter from Senator Bernie Sanders and 30 House Democrats. Katherine Bowles of its legislative affairs office signed the reply, which Folha de S.Paulo obtained, Jornal de Brasília reported.
The reply says the United States supports the Brazilian people’s right to a free and fair electoral process. It did not commit to respecting the outcome, which the lawmakers had asked for, Sociedade Militar reported.
Sanders congratulated Lula on Sunday night, while Trump had said nothing about the result, ICL Notícias reported earlier that evening. Chile’s President José Antonio Kast and Paraguay’s Santiago Peña also sent congratulations, ICL Notícias and Times Brasil reported.
Trade is also a pressure point, as the US has charged a 25% tariff on Brazilian imports since Wednesday, 22 July 2026. A US Trade Representative notice in the Federal Register of 20 July lists certain exemptions.
What It Means for US Readers
Investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds and US-listed Brazil funds should note that the remark is political, not legal. It does not change the count, but it keeps US-Brazil relations in the headlines.
Exporters and importers still face the 25% tariff, and nothing found shows a change after the vote. Any shift would come from the White House or USTR, not from the Brazilian courts.
Travel and business with Brazil are not affected by the remarks. Background is in the analysis of what Lula’s win means and the Brazil hub.
What Is Not Known
The outlets do not say whether Trump spoke to reporters, posted online or issued a statement, or at what time. The original English words were not found, so the wording here rests on EFE’s translation.
No White House or State Department statement recognising or disputing the result was found by Monday, 26 October. It is also unclear whether Flávio has filed his annulment request, and the TSE’s formal certification date is not confirmed.
Earlier partial counts differed slightly, for example 51.78% at 99.95% of sections in Mix Vale. The final TSE count rounds to 51.79%.
What Comes Next
Watch for a formal US statement on Lula’s win and for any filing by Flávio’s party with the electoral court. Neither step would by itself change the result, which Brazil’s courts decide.
Lula’s inauguration is set for Tuesday, 5 January 2027, in Brasília. Whether Trump or a US delegation attends is not known.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Trump say about Lula’s win?
Trump said Brazil had just applied Joe Biden’s playbook and that communists do not give up power, EFE reported. He offered no evidence of irregularities.
What was the result of Brazil’s runoff?
Lula won 51.79% to 48.21% over Flávio Bolsonaro, with all sections totalled. That is a margin of about 4.4 million votes.
Has Flávio Bolsonaro conceded?
Not as of 26 October. He said the election should have been annulled and that recognising the result was impossible, citing the extended voting hours.
Has the US recognised Lula’s victory?
No statement recognising it was found by 26 October. The State Department said on 15 October only that it backs a free and fair process.
When does Lula take office?
Lula is due to be sworn in on Tuesday, 5 January 2027, in Brasília. He will start his fourth term as president.
Sources: TSE, note on the voting extension, 25 October; Federal Register, USTR Section 301 notice on Brazil, 20 July; Infobae (EFE), 25 October; Times Brasil, 25 October; Cadena 3, 25 October; Diário do País, Trump remarks; Diário do País, Martin De Luca; Mix Vale, partial count and extension, 25 October; Portal de Prefeitura, first round, 5 October; Todapalavra, Flávio statement; Jornal de Brasília, State Department reply, 15 October; Sociedade Militar, State Department reply; ICL Notícias, 25 October; Times Brasil, world leaders (all accessed 26 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief