Brazil Soy Crop Seen at Record 184M Tons

BRAZIL · SOYBEANS · FARM TRADE

The US Agriculture Department’s office in Brasília expects Brazil to harvest a record 184 million tons of soybeans from the crop now being planted, a forecast that sits between Brazil’s own estimate and Washington’s.

The US Department of Agriculture’s office in Brasília, which writes reports on Brazilian farming for Washington, expects the 2026/27 soybean harvest to reach 184 million metric tons, a record, CNN Brasil reported on Saturday 24 October 2026. That would be almost 2% more than the 180.5 million tons estimated for the 2025/26 season, and it matters to American farmers because Brazil is the world’s largest soybean exporter and sells most of its beans to China.

Two other official forecasts bracket the figure: Brazil’s crop agency Conab put the harvest at 181.6 million tons on Thursday 15 October 2026, and the USDA’s monthly world outlook of Friday 9 October 2026 has 186 million tons. All three point to a bigger crop than last season, in a year when a strong El Niño is building in the Pacific Ocean.

What the Brasília Forecast Says

The attaché revised the planted area for 2026/27 down from its first estimate to 49.7 million hectares, which is 1.4% more than the 49 million hectares of the previous season, according to the Brazilian account of the report. That is well below the average yearly expansion of 4.2% over the last five years, and the report blames cautious growers who face weather swings, high interest rates and production costs.

Most of the growth is expected in Matopiba, the Cerrado farming frontier that covers parts of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia, where the report cites available land and planned transport links. One of them is the FIOL railway, which the account describes as planned at about 1,527 kilometres to connect the port of Ilhéus in Bahia with Figueirópolis in Tocantins and join the North-South Railway there.

The attaché maintains the 184 million ton forecast, and says recent conditions favored soil moisture in important regions during early planting, which could support higher yields. It expects better water conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, which could offset possible losses in other states such as Mato Grosso.

Three Official Forecasts Compared

The gap between the highest and lowest forecast is 4.4 million tons, or 2.4% of the lower figure. Conab’s survey counts 49.3 million hectares, 0.4 million fewer than the Brasília office, and it was taken when only 15.6% of the soybean area had been sown at the start of October.

Conab expects soybean exports of 117.97 million tons, about 1.51% more than last season, and the USDA’s Washington table has 118.0 million tons against 114.46 million estimated for 2025/26. The USDA also sees China importing 115 million tons in 2026/27, up from 113 million in 2025/26.

China Still Buys Most of Brazil’s Soy

Brazil exported 100.15 million tons of soybeans from January to September 2026, worth US$42.90 billion, against 93.87 million tons and US$37.33 billion a year earlier, according to the government’s Comex Stat trade database. China took 70.0 million tons worth US$30.00 billion, about 70% of the volume, down from about 77% of the volume (72.6 million tons) in the same months of 2025.

Shipments to all other buyers combined rose from about 21.2 million tons to about 30.1 million tons, a gain of roughly 42%. Dividing value by volume gives an average export price of about US$428 a ton, up from about US$398.

Brazil shipped virtually no soybeans to the United States in the period, only 231 kilograms worth US$1,985, the database shows. The two countries meet instead in third markets, above all in China.

What It Means for You

American soybean growers sell to the same Chinese buyers as Brazil, and the USDA’s own tables show how lopsided the contest has been, with Brazil estimated to export 114.46 million tons in 2025/26 against 41.24 million tons for the United States. US exports fell about 20% from 51.50 million tons a year earlier, while Brazil’s rose 11% from 103.14 million tons.

For 2026/27 Washington projects US exports of 46.13 million tons (1.695 billion bushels), a US crop of 4.562 billion bushels and a season-average farm price of US$12.00 a bushel. Investors in grain futures, farm lenders and food companies that buy soybean meal or oil should read the three forecasts for Brazil as a range that will keep moving, because none of them says where prices will go.

El Niño Is the Wild Card

The US Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday 8 October 2026 that El Niño is still strengthening and that a strong-to-very-strong event is likely through January to March 2027, with an above 83% chance. It put the chance of a historic event, stronger than any since 1950, at 83% for October to December.

“El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).”
US Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 October 2026

The attaché report, as the Brazilian account describes it, puts El Niño on growers’ radar but says the main worries are for second-crop corn and cotton, and that irregular rain could hurt the harvest more than the planting. In Pará, growers are reported to be sowing faster to bring the harvest forward and cut weather risk.

In Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top soybean state, planting had reached 75.81% of the projected area by Friday 23 October 2026, up 23.95 percentage points in a week, according to the farm institute Imea. A year earlier the figure was 60.05%, and the five-year average for the date is 64.31%.

What Is Not Known

The attaché’s report itself could not be opened on the USDA’s website, so its figures are as the Brazilian news report gives them, and the date of the report is not stated there. The account says the 184 million ton forecast was maintained and describes a downward revision only for the planted area.

It is also not known whether the 49.7 million hectares will hold, how El Niño will affect the main growing states, or how much of the crop China will buy from Brazil and how much from the United States. Conab and the USDA will both revise their numbers in the coming months, and the Climate Prediction Center’s next update is due on Thursday 12 November 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

How big will Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop be?

The USDA’s office in Brasília forecasts 184 million metric tons, a record. Conab projects 181.6 million tons and the USDA in Washington 186 million tons.

Why does Brazil’s soy crop matter to the United States?

Brazil and the United States sell to the same buyers, led by China. The USDA estimates Brazil exports 114.46 million tons in 2025/26 against 41.24 million tons for the US.

Who buys Brazil’s soybeans?

China took 70.0 million of the 100.15 million tons Brazil exported from January to September 2026, about 70%. The government trade database shows almost no soybeans went to the United States.

What role does El Niño play?

The US Climate Prediction Center says a strong-to-very-strong El Niño is likely through early 2027. The attaché’s main worries are for second-crop corn and cotton, and irregular rain could hit harvests more than planting.

Sources: Conab, first survey of the 2026/27 grain crop, 15 October 2026, USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 9 October 2026, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO discussion, 8 October 2026, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, Comex Stat database (soybeans, heading 1201, January to September 2026), CNN Brasil, 24 October 2026, CNN Brasil, Imea planting data (Reuters copy), 23 October 2026. Retrieved 25 October 2026.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error