Lula Leads 51% to 49% in Vox Brasil Poll
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 18 October, 5:34 AM ET · Source: Vox Brasil, registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-04332/2026
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened Vox Brasil, a Brazilian polling institute, published a runoff survey that puts Lula narrowly ahead in a technical tie.
- The numbers Lula has 51% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 49%, while raw totals read 46.4% to 44.6%.
- Margin of error 2.15 percentage points at 95% confidence, so the 1.8-point raw gap is inside the margin.
- Fieldwork 2,100 voters aged 16 or older, interviewed from 15 to 17 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 80.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (18 October, 5:33 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 81% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 20% and 21%), as of 18 October, 5:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Most other recent surveys, including Datafolha and Quaest, have Flávio ahead by the same 51% to 49% margin.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
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Vox Brasil, a Brazilian polling institute, put Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, at 51% and Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 49% of valid votes in a runoff survey reported from 11:01 p.m. ET on Saturday 17 October. The result keeps the Brazil election 2026 race a technical tie.
The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every survey, our Brazil election odds page follows the betting markets, and the Brazil runoff date page explains how to follow the count.
What the Vox Brasil Poll Found
Vox Brasil Opinião e Pesquisas interviewed 2,100 voters aged 16 or older from 15 to 17 October, with a 2.15-point margin of error and a 95% confidence level, Metrópoles and tmc.com.br reported. The survey is registered with the electoral court under number BR-04332/2026.
Lula has 46.4% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44.6% of all answers, with 5% blank, null or for neither and 3.9% undecided, according to Metrópoles. Once those answers are set aside, the split is 51% to 49% in Lula’s favour.
Voters were also asked whom they would never back, and 45.3% named Lula and 45.3% named Flávio, Metrópoles reported. Rejection is a measure of how many voters a candidate cannot win over.
How It Compares With Earlier Surveys
The institute’s previous runoff survey, taken from 5 to 7 October, had Lula at 44.2% and Flávio at 42.7% of all answers, Correio da Manhã reported. The raw gap is therefore 1.8 points now against 1.5 points then, a change well inside the margin of error.
Both candidates gained as undecided voters fell from 9.7% to 3.9%, while blank and null answers rose from 3.4% to 5%. The shift shows more voters choosing a side as the vote approaches.
Other pollsters see the race the other way round. Datafolha, linked to the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, had Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes, Jornal Opção reported, and O Povo reported the same split from Quaest.
Our earlier report on the Datafolha runoff poll explains how valid votes and technical ties work.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, polls that disagree on the leader can mean price swings until the result is known. A single survey does not settle the race, and the 2-point gaps in most polls sit inside their margins of error.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. Read the average of all polls, not one survey, and treat each result as a snapshot of the days of the interviews.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 80.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff, against 19.5% for Lula (18 October, 5:33 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$186.9 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 80.8% · Lula 19.5% (US$187 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 18 October, 5:20 am ET (10:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The institute’s full questionnaire was not available to us, and Metrópoles does not state the interview method. Neither detail is known to change the headline figures.
It is not known how undecided and swing voters will behave on 25 October, or how many will turn out. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest Vox Brasil runoff poll?
Lula leads with 51% of valid votes against 49% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Raw totals are 46.4% to 44.6%, which is a technical tie.
What is the margin of error of the Vox Brasil poll?
It is 2.15 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with 2,100 voters interviewed from 15 to 17 October. The 1.8-point raw gap between the candidates is inside that margin.
How did the Vox Brasil poll change from the previous one?
On 5 to 7 October the institute had Lula at 44.2% and Flávio at 42.7% of all answers. Undecided voters have since fallen from 9.7% to 3.9%.
Do other polls agree with Vox Brasil?
Not on the leader. Datafolha and Quaest both have Flávio Bolsonaro ahead 51% to 49% in valid votes.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October 2026, one week after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Sources: Metrópoles, 18 October 2026; tmc.com.br, 18 October 2026; Correio da Manhã, 9 October 2026; Jornal Opção, 15 October 2026; O Povo, 15 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief