BRAZIL · SOYBEANS
Key Facts
- —What is happening Brazil’s soy processors expect to crush 66 million tonnes of beans in 2027, up 3.8% from 63.6 million this year. The forecast is Abiove’s first for 2027, published on Thursday 22 October.
- —Why it matters Brazil is the world’s biggest soybean exporter. Its home crush decides how much soybean meal and oil it sells against US farmers and crushers.
- —The numbers Bean exports are forecast at 113.0 million tonnes, down 0.8%, and meal exports at 26.3 million tonnes, up 4%. Soybean oil exports are put at 1.9 million tonnes, against 1.95 million in 2026.
- —Who is who Abiove is the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, which issues the soy complex forecasts. Conab is the state crop agency behind the 180.4 million tonne 2026 harvest figure.
- —What to watch USDA publishes its next world crop estimates on Tuesday 10 November. Abiove expects Brazil’s biodiesel blend to rise to B16 in March 2027, lifting home demand for soybean oil.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you US soybean growers and crushers compete with a Brazil that plans more meal and oil from its own beans. USDA forecasts the US crush at 75.7 million tonnes for 2026/27.
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Brazil’s soy processors forecast a 66 million tonne crush in 2027, up 3.8%. Raw soybean exports are expected to ease 0.8% to 113.0 million tonnes.
Brazil’s soybean processors expect to crush 66 million tonnes of beans in 2027, up 3.8% from 63.6 million this year. Abiove, the industry association, published the first 2027 forecast on Thursday 22 October.
That matters in the United States because Brazil is the world’s biggest soybean exporter. Its crush decides how much soybean meal and oil it sells against US farmers and crushers.
What Abiove Forecast for 2027
Abiove expects meal output of 50.8 million tonnes in 2027, up 3.8%, and soybean oil output of 13.27 million tonnes, up 3.7%. Meal is the protein feed made from the crushed bean.
Soybean exports are forecast at 113.0 million tonnes in 2027, down 0.8% from 113.9 million this year. Bean imports are put at 0.9 million tonnes.
Meal exports are forecast at 26.3 million tonnes, up 4% from 25.3 million in 2026. Soybean oil exports are put at 1.9 million tonnes, against 1.95 million this year.
Meal for the home market is forecast at 23.1 million tonnes, up 7.4%. Soybean oil use at home is seen at 11.5 million tonnes, up 4.5% from 11.0 million.
The bean crop itself is forecast at 181.6 million tonnes, up 0.7%. The 2026 base of 180.4 million tonnes comes from Conab, Brazil’s state crop agency.
Abiove sees 8.19 million tonnes of beans left at the end of 2027, up 6.8% from 7.67 million. Meal stocks are put at 5.65 million tonnes and oil stocks at 0.61 million.
How Brazil Compares With the United States
USDA, the US farm department, projects a US crush of 75.7 million tonnes for 2026/27 in its outlook of Friday 9 October. Abiove’s 66 million tonnes for Brazil would be about 87% of that.
USDA puts US soybean exports at 46.1 million tonnes, so Brazil’s forecast of 113.0 million is nearly 2.5 times larger. USDA itself projects Brazil’s 2026/27 exports at 118.0 million tonnes.
On meal, USDA projects US exports of 22.7 million short tons, about 20.6 million tonnes, against Brazil’s 26.3 million. On oil, US exports are 400 million pounds, about 0.18 million tonnes, against 1.9 million tonnes for Brazil.
USDA and Abiove differ on Brazil. USDA’s 2026/27 figures are a 186.0 million tonne crop, a 65.0 million tonne crush and 118.0 million tonnes of exports.
Abiove is lower on the crop and exports, at 181.6 and 113.0 million tonnes, and higher on the crush at 66.0 million. USDA uses an October to September year for Brazil, and Abiove’s year basis is unconfirmed, so the gaps are indicative.
What Is Driving the Crush Rise
Abiove’s economics director, Daniel Furlan Amaral, tied the strong pace to domestic demand for meal. AgFeed quoted him saying the industry had responded quickly.
He added that the steady rise prepares the industry to keep supplying the country. Abiove also cites an expected rise in Brazil’s mandatory biodiesel blend to B16 in March 2027.
Biodiesel is made mostly from soybean oil, and the blend is the share added to diesel. A B16 blend would raise home use of soybean oil, which Abiove puts at 11.5 million tonnes in 2027.
How 2026 Is Ending
Abiove raised its 2026 crush estimate by 0.2% to 63.6 million tonnes. It put meal output at 48.95 million tonnes and soybean oil output at 12.8 million tonnes.
Crushing in August was 5.03 million tonnes, down 1.8% from July and up 9% from August 2025. From January to August it reached 38.67 million tonnes, up 8.4%, with both year on year figures adjusted for sample coverage.
Soybean exports for 2026 were trimmed 1% to 113.9 million tonnes. Soybean oil exports were raised 8.3% to 1.95 million tonnes.
What It Means for US Readers
US soybean farmers compete with Brazil for export buyers, and Brazil’s forecast keeps 113.0 million tonnes of beans headed abroad. USDA projects a US farm price of US$12.00 a bushel for 2026/27.
Crushers and meal buyers should note that Brazil plans 26.3 million tonnes of meal exports, 4% more than in 2026. Soybean oil exports of 1.9 million tonnes would sit slightly below this year’s level.
Earlier reports cover the soy moratorium court ruling, the record grain harvest forecast and the September grain market wrap on China tariffs. More context is in the Brazil news hub, the Latin America grains tracker for 22 October and the Brazil guide for newcomers.
What Is Not Known
Abiove’s own release could not be opened, because its news page shows no October 2026 item. The figures come from AgFeed, which carries them all, and Portos e Navios, which repeats the main ones.
Home use, stocks and the 0.7% crop rise rest on AgFeed alone, because Portos e Navios omits them. Neither outlet states Abiove’s year basis, so whether 2027 means a calendar or marketing year is not confirmed.
Meal exports of 26.3 million tonnes plus home use of 23.1 million total 49.4 million, by Rio Times addition. Production is 50.8 million, and the 1.4 million gap is not explained in the reports.
The 63.6 million tonne crush for 2026 implies about 24.9 million tonnes from September to December, by Rio Times subtraction. That is about 6.2 million tonnes a month, against 5.03 million in August, and the reports do not explain the difference.
It is not known whether the government will confirm B16 for March 2027, and CNN Brasil reports no clear signal yet. USDA and Abiove differ on Brazil’s crop and exports, and the year definitions may explain part of the gap.
What Comes Next
USDA publishes its next world crop estimates on Tuesday 10 November, which will show whether it moves closer to Abiove on Brazil. Abiove’s previous update came in September, according to AgFeed, and no date for the next one is known.
The B16 decision, expected for March 2027, is the main policy test for soybean oil demand. None of this means Brazil will out-crush the United States, since Abiove’s 66 million tonnes is below USDA’s 75.7 million.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the soy crush?
The crush is the volume of soybeans a factory processes into meal and oil. Abiove’s 2027 figures imply roughly 77% meal and 20% oil by weight, by Rio Times calculation.
How much will Brazil crush in 2027?
Abiove forecasts 66 million tonnes, up 3.8% from 63.6 million in 2026. It published its first 2027 forecast on Thursday 22 October.
Will Brazil export fewer soybeans?
Abiove forecasts 113.0 million tonnes of bean exports in 2027, down 0.8% from 113.9 million. Meal exports are forecast up 4% to 26.3 million tonnes.
How does Brazil compare with the United States?
USDA projects a US crush of 75.7 million tonnes and exports of 46.1 million tonnes for 2026/27. Brazil’s forecast crush is 66 million tonnes and its bean exports are 113.0 million.
What is B16?
B16 is a blend of 16% biodiesel in diesel, up from 15% now. Abiove expects it in March 2027, though CNN Brasil reports no clear government signal.
Sources: AgFeed, 22 October; Portos e Navios, 22 October; CNN Brasil, 22 October (biodiesel blend); USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 9 October 2026; Abiove news page (all accessed 23 October 2026). Tonnes are metric tons; US short tons and pounds converted by Rio Times.
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