Quaest Poll Shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied at 42 in the Runoff a Week Before Brazil Votes
Key Facts
The country — Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy with about 210 million people, votes for a president on Sunday 4 October, with a runoff on 25 October if nobody wins outright.
The background — President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro carries the conservative banner after his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, was barred from running and imprisoned.
Why it is news — One week before the first round, the pollster that had shown the challenger’s only runoff lead now reads the decisive head-to-head as a dead heat, erasing Flávio Bolsonaro’s last numerical edge in its series.
What happened — Genial/Quaest released its new national wave: Lula 39 percent, Flávio Bolsonaro 34 percent in the first round; the runoff simulation moved from Flávio 42 to 41 into a 42 to 42 numeric tie.
The numbers — Quaest interviewed 2,004 voters between 24 and 27 September, with a margin of error of two points, in its final full wave before the 4 October vote.
What it means for you — A tied runoff reading a week out means volatility is the base case. For money and moving plans alike, prepare for a long election night on 4 October and a probable second round on 25 October.
Sources: Genial/Quaest national poll (fieldwork 24–27 September 2026, 2,004 interviews, ±2pp); Genial/Quaest previous wave (fieldwork 17–20 September); Datafolha (22–24 September, TSE BR-00304/2026); Veritá (10–19 September, 40,500 interviews); BTG Pactual/Nexus (2,000 interviews, late September wave).
More: Brazil election 2026 coverage from The Rio Times.
Quaest Erases the Challenger’s Last Runoff Lead
For two consecutive waves, Genial/Quaest was the only mainstream institute that put Senator Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead in a runoff against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Its new wave, fielded 24 to 27 September with 2,004 voters and released on the eve of the final campaign week, ends that distinction: the runoff simulation now reads 42 percent each, a numeric tie inside the two-point margin of error.
The shift comes from the president’s side: Lula moved from 41 to 42 percent in the pairing, while Flávio Bolsonaro held at 42. Two weeks ago the same house showed the senator ahead 42 to 40. The series now records a two-point gain for the incumbent in the decisive scenario.
Lula Widens First-Round Lead to 39 to 34
In the first-round scenario Quaest shows Lula at 39 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34 percent, up from 37 and 33 in the institute’s previous wave. That five-point gap, outside the two-point margin of error, sits at the Lula end of the band our poll tracker records across houses, from Datafolha’s 40 to 36 for Lula to Veritá’s 45.5 to 41.8 for Flávio Bolsonaro in its giant 40,500-interview wave.
Read together, the houses agree on the shape of the race, Lula ahead in the first round, everything open in the second, while disagreeing on the size of every gap. BTG Pactual/Nexus, which also fielded a late-September wave of 2,000 voters, puts Lula at 42 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37 percent in its 25–27 September first-round reading.
Why the Runoff Number Matters Now
Brazil almost certainly votes twice: no candidate is near the absolute majority of valid votes needed to win on 4 October. That makes the runoff simulation the number campaigns watch — and Quaest’s series has flipped from the challenger’s best hope to a coin toss in the span of two waves.
The movement mirrors what the betting markets have been pricing for days, as our prediction markets comparison tracks: money and pollsters now converge on a second round that either man can win.
What Comes Next
The final days before the vote bring the last registered waves from Datafolha, AtlasIntel and the other major houses, with electoral rules restricting new releases immediately around the 4 October ballot. Every new number lands in our poll tracker within hours, and the count itself starts live on election night in our results hub.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the latest Quaest poll show?
Lula 39 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro 34 percent in the first round, and a 42-to-42 numeric tie in the runoff simulation.
Why is the new Quaest reading a shift?
Quaest had been the only mainstream institute showing Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead in a runoff. The new wave erases that last numerical edge in its series.
How reliable are these numbers?
Quaest interviewed 2,004 voters between 24 and 27 September with a margin of error of two points, so the runoff tie sits well within the margin.
When are Brazil’s election dates?
The first round is Sunday 4 October; if nobody wins outright, the runoff is on 25 October.
Brazil Election 2026 — Our Full Coverage
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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff date. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.