BRAZIL · PREDICTION MARKETS
Prediction markets give 86.1% odds that Brazil’s central bank holds its Selic interest rate at 13.75% on Wednesday, 4 November 2026. Polymarket’s contract on the decision had about US$134,100 traded at 4:12 a.m. ET on Tuesday, 3 November.
Full analysis
This page is part of our coverage of Brazil’s 2026 election, won by Lula with 51.79% of valid votes.
Full analysis: how Lula won Brazil’s runoff with 51.79% → The state map, the new Congress, markets and three scenarios to May 2027.
Key Facts
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —Prediction markets Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction exchange, gives 86.1% to no change in Brazil’s Selic rate on 4 November (3 November, 4:12 a.m. ET).
- —What is happening Brazil’s central bank announces its Selic rate decision on Wednesday, 4 November, with the rate now 13.75%.
- —Why it matters The Selic sets Brazilian borrowing costs and moves the real, which matters to US holders of Brazilian assets.
- —The numbers The Selic stands at 13.75%; inflation was 4.58% in the 12 months to September, by the official IPCA index.
- —Who is who Copom, the central bank’s monetary policy committee, meets on 3 and 4 November and votes on the Selic rate.
- —What to watch The Copom statement on Wednesday, 4 November, then the December meeting that ends on Wednesday, 9 December.
- —What it means for you A hold keeps Brazil’s high rates for dollar investors; a surprise cut would test the real.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, the November decision market gives 86.1% to no change in the Selic. It prices a 25-basis-point cut at 12.5% and a cut of 50 points or more at 1.9%.
Any rate increase is priced at about 0.1%, read at 4:12 a.m. ET on Tuesday, 3 November. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, so a 25-point cut would take the Selic from 13.75% to 13.50%.
The Selic is the central bank’s target for the overnight rate banks charge each other. It anchors loan costs across Brazil.
The November contract has about US$134,100 traded in total, above the roughly US$10,000 mark that makes a market worth quoting. It resolves on the official Copom statement for the meeting scheduled for 3 and 4 November.
For the December meeting, the same exchange gives 67.5% to a hold and 25% to a 25-point cut. A cut of 50 points or more is priced at about 2%.
That December contract has US$52,236 traded, so it is thinner than the November one. Its prices can swing on a few large orders.
A Polymarket contract on Brazil’s 2026 inflation puts 51.5% on a year of 5.00% to 5.49% and 29.4% on 5.50% to 5.99%. It has US$198,980 traded.
The official 12-month IPCA, Brazil’s consumer price index, was 4.58% in September. Prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of news.
Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, also lists a Brazil rate decision market. Its trading could not be confirmed at US$10,000 or more, so only Polymarket is quoted here.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
- Runoff poll data: 45 polls as free CSV, average Flávio 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
Every national runoff poll since 4 October from 21 pollsters, as CSV and embeddable charts. Flávio leads in 39 of 45 polls.
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- Flávio Bolsonaro Leaves Brazil for the US
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- Brazil's Real Recovers After Election Rout
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- Trump Calls Brazil Election Rigged
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- Bolsonaro's Party Wins Zero Runoffs
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How Did the Runoff Market End?
Polymarket’s market on the winner of Brazil’s presidential election settled on Lula after the runoff on Sunday, 25 October 2026. About US$249.1 million was traded on it in total, according to the exchange’s own data for the event.
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s top election authority, counted Lula at 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The full count and what comes next are on our Brazil election results page.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+1.23%
167,563.47
+1.23%
70,819.80
+0.91%
10,627.00
+2.52%
2,848,945
—
2,506.42
-0.84%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 167,563.47 | +1.23% | +19.56% | 165,528.92 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| SELIC | 13.75% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 53.31 | -1.06% | +77.70% | 53.88 | 53.70 | 52.83 | 43,239,500 |
| VALE3 | 62.88 | -2.33% | +1.98% | 64.38 | 64.43 | 62.80 | 24,652,300 |
| ITUB4 | 41.42 | -0.67% | +11.30% | 41.70 | 42.60 | 41.15 | 28,160,700 |
| BBDC4 | 15.69 | -1.63% | -13.88% | 15.95 | 16.30 | 15.67 | 65,766,400 |
| BBAS3 | 17.59 | +0.69% | -15.59% | 17.47 | 18.31 | 17.51 | 67,844,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.27 | +1.33% | +21.71% | 15.07 | 15.78 | 15.20 | 75,282,000 |
| ABEV3 | 15.40 | +0.20% | +26.75% | 15.37 | 15.68 | 15.31 | 27,307,400 |
| WEGE3 | 45.78 | +2.81% | +10.06% | 44.53 | 47.08 | 45.06 | 9,823,200 |
| PRIO3 | 69.21 | -2.71% | +87.14% | 71.14 | 70.98 | 69.15 | 6,663,200 |
| SUZB3 | 47.14 | -0.55% | -3.79% | 47.40 | 47.84 | 46.10 | 7,151,800 |
| RENT3 | 31.14 | -1.67% | -20.73% | 31.67 | 32.68 | 31.02 | 19,092,400 |
| AZZA3 | 16.72 | +1.15% | -42.24% | 16.53 | 17.42 | 16.72 | 4,875,400 |
| CSNA3 | 4.76 | -4.99% | -47.09% | 5.01 | 5.14 | 4.76 | 14,327,900 |
| GGBR4 | 24.87 | -2.28% | +36.28% | 25.45 | 26.20 | 24.79 | 7,507,900 |
| ENEV3 | 26.79 | +0.45% | +49.78% | 26.67 | 27.35 | 26.30 | 12,263,000 |
Is There a Market on Who Wins in 2030?
A search of Polymarket at 4:12 a.m. ET on Tuesday, 3 November found no active market on the 2030 Brazilian presidential race. Kalshi lists one, but with far less than US$10,000 traded.
The open Brazil politics markets cover cabinet posts and a Supreme Court nomination. This page shows a 2030 market only once it has trading of at least about US$10,000.
Until then, no 2030 odds are quoted here. None are inferred from polls.
What It Means for You
For a US investor in Brazilian bonds or the real, the Selic decides the carry. Carry is the return from holding Brazilian rates instead of dollar rates.
A hold at 13.75% leaves that return unchanged, and a cut would lower it. The central bank’s official daily dollar price, the PTAX rate, was 5.4212 reais on Friday, 30 October (one real is about US$0.18).
That compares with 5.0377 on Friday, 23 October, before the runoff. The dollar’s price in reais rose about 7.6% in that week.
Related Rio Times reports: Brazil Expected to Hold Rates at 13.75% and Brazil Rate Cap Idea Wins Some Lula Allies. More is on the Brazil hub and the Prediction Markets page.
What Is Not Known
The Copom decision is not out until Wednesday, 4 November, and its statement may differ from the market’s view. No 2030 presidential market with real trading was found, and Kalshi’s Selic market could not be confirmed at US$10,000.
Prices for December and for 2026 inflation are thin and can change on a few trades. The time of the Copom statement on 4 November was not confirmed from the central bank’s calendar.
What to Watch Next
- Tuesday, 3 November: first day of the Copom meeting, with no statement expected.
- Wednesday, 4 November: Copom announces its Selic decision after the second day; this page is refreshed afterwards.
- Tuesday, 8 and Wednesday, 9 December: the final Copom meeting of 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What do Brazil prediction markets say about the Selic decision?
On Polymarket, 86.1% of the price sits on no change at 13.75%, read at 4:12 a.m. ET on Tuesday, 3 November. A 25-basis-point cut is priced at 12.5%.
When does Brazil’s central bank decide on interest rates?
The Copom meets on Tuesday, 3 November, and Wednesday, 4 November, and announces its decision on Wednesday. The next meeting is on 8 and 9 December.
Is there a prediction market on who wins Brazil’s 2030 election?
Polymarket has no active 2030 presidential market for Brazil, and Kalshi’s has little trading. This page will add one once it has real trading of about US$10,000.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets traders buy contracts paying US$1 if an outcome happens, so 84 cents reads as an 84% chance. Prices are bets, not polls or advice.
Sources: Banco Central do Brasil (Brazil’s central bank): Copom page, Selic rate and calendar, Selic target series 432, IPCA 12-month series 13522 and PTAX dollar rate (accessed 3 November 2026); Polymarket and Kalshi market data for Brazil, queried 3 November 2026 at 4:12 a.m. ET; Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff: date, poll closing times and when results start. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.