Brazilians Reject Election Loser’s US Flight

Brazil woke up on Sunday, 8 November 2026, still arguing about a man who is no longer in the country. A new poll by Quaest, a Brazilian polling firm, shows that most voters who knew of the trip think Flávio Bolsonaro, the defeated conservative candidate, was wrong to leave.

Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, lost the 25 October runoff, the final round between the top two candidates, to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He then left for the United States, as our earlier reporting on his stay in the US explained.

Quaest finds most Brazilians who knew of it disapprove of Flávio Bolsonaro leaving for the United States, yet 94% hope Lula governs well. The country calls itself divided but not hopeless.

What the Poll Found

Quaest published the survey on Sunday, 8 November 2026. Interviews ran from Friday, 30 October to Monday, 2 November.

The headline number is 62%, the share of those who knew of the trip (89% of everyone polled) who call Flávio Bolsonaro’s decision to leave wrong. Another 29% call it right, and 9% gave no answer.

Asked why he went, 56% said he was trying to escape the courts. Another 35% said he was protecting himself from political persecution.

Brazil is also worn out by the vote itself. Some 81% say the country is more divided than before, and 59% disapprove of Flávio Bolsonaro questioning the result, a theme we covered when he raised doubts about Brazil’s democracy.

Why It Matters

A move meant to signal defiance is read by most voters as flight. Quaest’s full report will show how his own voters see it.

For readers in the United States, the link is direct, because he went to the United States. Our report on the US stance on his stay shows how the choice entered American politics.

The Hopeful Part

Despite the anger, 94% say they hope Lula governs well. That is the same share Quaest recorded in December 2022, after the last transfer of power.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a crypto-based betting exchange, shows US$32,240 traded on when Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil. At 09:42 ET on 8 November, it priced a return by 31 December 2027 at 49%, and by 30 June 2027 at 17.5%.

A return by 31 December 2026 was priced at 5.0%. These prices are bets, not polls.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Happens Next

Lula begins his new term on 1 January 2027. Quaest’s next survey should show whether the national divide narrows.

What Is Not Known

It is unclear how conservative voters themselves split, because the published breakdowns by voter group differ. We therefore give only the national numbers.

The poll’s official registration number was not in the material we could read. Quaest’s full report sits behind a sign-up form.

What It Means for You

If you invest in Brazilian stocks or bonds, a calm post-election mood is a mild positive, but a deeply divided country can still slow reforms. Watch how Congress treats Lula’s first budget.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the Quaest poll find about Flávio Bolsonaro?

Among the 89% of Brazilians who knew of his trip, 62% say he was wrong to leave after losing the runoff, and 29% say he was right. Another 59% disapprove of him questioning the election result.

Who won the Brazilian runoff in 2026?

Lula won the runoff held on Sunday, 25 October 2026, against Flávio Bolsonaro. The electoral court, the TSE, publishes the official count.

How reliable is the Quaest poll?

Quaest interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 or older, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points at 95% confidence. A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast.