Guatemala Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026

GUATEMALA · POLITICS

Guatemala politics matters to Americans because this Central American country sits on the drug and migration routes north to the United States. In October 2026 power is split between a president without a majority, a fragmented Congress and courts that are changing hands.

Guatemala Politics at a Glance, a Weak Presidency in a Divided System

Guatemala is a presidential republic with a single-chamber Congress of 160 deputies, and Guatemala politics runs on five bodies that rarely agree.

The five are the president, Congress, the Public Ministry (the national prosecution service), the courts and the electoral tribunal. Each has its own head, and each can block the others.

In Guatemala politics the 2023 result was a shock, because Bernardo Arévalo won the presidency on an anti-corruption platform. His party, Movimiento Semilla, won only 23 of the 160 seats in Congress, so he has had to govern without a majority.

The biggest changes of 2026 have come from outside the presidency. A new electoral tribunal, Constitutional Court, attorney general and Supreme Court president all took office between March and October 2026.

The 2027 election is already shaping every decision. Under the electoral tribunal’s resignation rules, cabinet ministers who want to run for president must leave office by 26 December 2026.

The President and the Executive Branch

Bernardo Arévalo took office in January 2024, and his term ends in January 2028.

His approval has fallen far. A CID Gallup poll from September 2026, released on 13 October, found 74% rating his management bad or very bad.

The Vice President and the Cabinet

Karin Herrera is the vice president. From 12 to 14 October 2026 she was in Brussels to promote satellite technology for disaster prevention, according to the state news agency AGN.

Carlos Ramiro Martínez is the foreign minister. On 1 October 2026 he joined Taiwan’s foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung, in a joint declaration during an official visit.

For a fuller profile of the president, see the Rio Times Arévalo profile.

The Money Posts Under Court Pressure

Jonathan Menkos was Arévalo’s finance minister from 19 January 2024 to 30 September 2026, then took over the central bank on 1 October. On 8 October the Constitutional Court provisionally suspended that appointment and voided his decisions since then, because he still held a seat in Congress.

On 15 October Arévalo swore Menkos in again as finance minister, and Débora Alvarado went back to her post as vice minister. The president said he was in the final phase of choosing a new bank chief.

The Watchdog Over Public Money

Élfego Castañón took office as comptroller general on 13 October 2026 for the 2026 to 2030 term. The comptroller audits how ministries and town halls spend public money, as the Rio Times comptroller report describes.

Congress and the Party Map

The Congress of the Republic has 160 deputies in one chamber. Its president is Luis Contreras, a deputy for San Marcos who belongs to the party CREO.

In November 2025 his slate for the governing board won 149 votes, about 93% of the chamber. In October 2026 he said he would seek another term, and a board vote is planned for 27 October.

The Blocs That Matter

A bloc is a group of deputies who vote together, and the blocs have shifted a great deal since 2024. Deals between bloc leaders explain more than party labels.

Vamos began the term with 39 deputies. La Hora reported on 2 October 2026 that it has no more than about ten visible allies, led by bloc head Allan Rodríguez.

Cabal, led in Congress by Luis Aguirre, holds a vice presidency and a secretariat on the board. Vos, led by Orlando Blanco, expects a board almost identical to the current one.

Valor, Azul and Victoria joined the deal that elected the board in 2025. UNE is the party of Sandra Torres.

Semilla Is Suspended, Raíces Is New

Semilla, the party that carried Arévalo to the presidency in 2023, has been suspended through court cases brought under former attorney general Consuelo Porras. At least 10 of its deputies founded Raíces, led by deputy Samuel Pérez, and the electoral authority confirmed its registration in September 2026.

Arévalo has publicly distanced himself from Raíces, according to the news agency EFE. That leaves the president without a party of his own for the 2027 race.

Prosecutors, Courts and the Electoral Tribunal

Guatemala’s courts decide who can run, who can be investigated and which appointments stand. Over 2026 almost every top judicial post has changed hands.

The Attorney General

Gabriel García Luna has headed the Public Ministry since 17 May 2026. He replaced Consuelo Porras, whom the United States has called corrupt and anti-democratic, as the Rio Times attorney general report details.

In September 2026 prosecutors carried out 13 raids in a case against Miguel Martínez, the partner of former president Alejandro Giammattei. La Hora reported on 15 October that García Luna accuses Porras’s office of hiding case files.

The Constitutional Court

The Constitutional Court has five magistrates who serve from 2026 to 2031, and its presidency rotates each year by age. Gladys Annabella Morfín Mansilla, named by Arévalo, presides first, followed by Astrid Jeannette Lemus Rodríguez in 2027 to 2028.

It is the court that blocked Menkos on 8 October.

The Supreme Court and the Electoral Tribunal

Jenny Alvarado Tení became president of the Supreme Court and the judiciary on 13 October 2026 for one year. She took office before Congress on the constitutional date.

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has five magistrates who serve from 2026 to 2032, chosen by Congress on 10 March 2026. It will run the 2027 vote.

The Army, Police and Security Chiefs

Defence Minister Henry Sáenz is the most senior active-duty officer in the army. On 21 October 2026 he told Prensa Libre that radical groups had urged officers to break with the president.

The army did not answer, he said. He put its size at about 14,000 to 15,000 people and said the last coup happened in 1983.

The National Civil Police

Interior Minister Marco Antonio Villeda oversees the National Civil Police, which is headed by director David Custodio Boteo.

On 17 October 2026 an attack at Campo Marte in Guatemala City killed two men. They were lawyer and former anti-corruption prosecutor Juan Francisco Solórzano Foppa and judo athlete Gustavo Adolfo Aguilar Gamarro.

Seven police officers are under investigation over the arrests that followed. On 22 October Boteo said he would not resign and that the decision belongs to the minister.

Mayors and Local Power

Mayors are elected, and they control the local money and the votes that matter at election time. Ricardo Quiñónez leads the Unionista project that runs the capital, Guatemala City.

A CB Global Data poll from 21 to 25 September 2026 put his disapproval at 71.1%, which is 3.8 points higher than the president’s.

Why Town Halls Matter for 2027

The 2027 ballot will fill the presidency, the vice presidency, seats in Congress, seats in the Central American Parliament and mayors’ offices. Local bosses who deliver votes shape the bloc deals that decide who governs, as the Rio Times country guide explains for newcomers.

The Race to 2027 and the Rising Figures

The first round is set for 27 June 2027, with a possible runoff on 22 August. The official call comes on 22 January 2027, and the names below come from analyst lists rather than registrations.

• Sandra Torres is linked to the UNE party and posted a video under its banner on 1 September 2026, according to the research group Asies.
• Carlos Pineda of the Servir party visited the US Embassy on 6 October 2026 to hand over files on his party’s local and congressional candidates.
• Roberto Arzú left Cabal on 4 September 2026 and appears on Asies’s list of figures with an eye on 2027.
• Zury Ríos and Nery Ramos also appear on the Asies list of possible presidential aspirants.
• Fausto Arimany of Valor and Samuel Pérez of Raíces are other names in the 2027 conversation.

What It Means for US Readers

Washington is a player in Guatemala politics and in this race. On 6 October 2026 the US Embassy said it is not a stage for campaign photos.

It also said it does not check candidates’ records, and called the vote a Guatemalan matter.

The embassy reaffirmed its commitment to fighting drug-trafficking influence in the country’s institutions. For US readers the stakes are migration, drug routes and American business.

The Rio Times geopolitics guide and country guide give the wider picture.

What to Watch

Watch the choice of a new central bank chief, the 27 October vote on Congress’s board and the January 2027 election call. The Guatemala hub tracks each step.

What Is Not Known

It is not yet known who will lead the central bank, or whether Congress re-elects Contreras as its president. No candidate has registered yet, so the field can still change.

The seat count of each bloc has not been published in full. Sáenz has not named who made the calls to the army he describes.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is the president of Guatemala in 2026?

Bernardo Arévalo is the president, in office since January 2024. His term ends in January 2028.

Who is the vice president of Guatemala?

Karin Herrera is the vice president. She was in Brussels on official business in mid-October 2026.

Who controls Congress in Guatemala?

No party holds a majority in the 160-seat chamber. Luis Contreras presides, and a board vote is planned for 27 October 2026.

Who is Guatemala’s attorney general?

Gabriel García Luna has led the Public Ministry since 17 May 2026. He replaced Consuelo Porras.

When is Guatemala’s next election?

The first round is planned for 27 June 2027, with a possible runoff on 22 August 2027. The official call is due on 22 January 2027.

Who leads Guatemala’s Constitutional Court?

Gladys Annabella Morfín presides over the five-member court for the first year of the 2026 to 2031 term.

Sources: Prensa Libre, Congress board vote, 2026-10-24; Prensa Libre, Menkos sworn in again, 2026-10-15; Prensa Libre, Supreme Court president sworn in, 2026-10-13; Prensa Libre, Defence Minister Sáenz, 2026-10-21; Infobae, Constitutional Court suspends Menkos, 2026-10-08; Infobae, PNC director and the Solórzano Foppa case, 2026-10-22; Infobae, US Embassy and the 2027 aspirants, 2026-10-07; Infobae, new party Raíces, 2026-09-28; Infobae, TSE resignation deadlines for 2027, 2026-08-28; Emisoras Unidas, CID Gallup poll, 2026-10-13; Emisoras Unidas, election date set by the TSE, 2026-06-25; La Hora, Vamos bloc, 2026-10-02; La Hora, García Luna and the Porras files, 2026-10-15; La Hora, Asies on 2027 aspirants, 2026-10-06; La Hora, Constitutional Court rotation 2026 to 2031, 2026-03-12; Plaza Pública, Congress board and blocs, 2026-01-14; Con Criterio, CB Global Data mayors ranking, 2026-10-02; Publinews, comptroller takes office, 2026-10-13; Agencia Ocote, TSE magistrates vote, 2026-03-11; AGN, Vice President Herrera in Brussels, 2026-10-13; Prensa Libre, Taiwan foreign minister visit, 2026-10-01; AGN, new attorney general takes office, 2026-05-17.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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