Five Voter Groups Swing Back to Democrats
Published Wednesday, Nov. 4, 11:30 a.m. ET (11:30 a.m. Washington) · Source: SSRS 2026 national voter survey (field dates Oct. 22 to Nov. 3)
Many Americans who drifted toward Donald Trump in 2024 drifted back in 2026. A national survey of tens of thousands of voters finds that young, Hispanic, Black, moderate and lower-income voters returned to Democrats in the 2026 US midterm elections, the national vote halfway through a presidential term.
The survey was run by SSRS, a US research firm, for a group of news organisations, and is among the largest midterm polls 2026 has produced. Interviews ran from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 in most states, with a margin of error of plus or minus 0.6 percentage points.
Key Facts
- What happened: A national survey of tens of thousands of voters shows five groups that moved toward Trump in 2024 swung back to Democrats.
- Who decided: Voters in the Nov. 3 midterms; SSRS, a US research firm, ran the survey for a group of news organisations.
- The numbers: About 7 in 10 voters under 30 backed Democrats for the House, against a roughly even split in 2024.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a crypto-based market, prices Hakeem Jeffries as next House Speaker at about 94% (11:30 a.m. ET, Nov. 4).
This story is part of our coverage of the 2026 US midterm elections. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
In plain English
In 2024, Trump won more support than before from groups that usually lean Democratic. This survey suggests those gains did not last into the 2026 House races.
Young Voters Lead the Swing Back
About 7 in 10 voters under 30 backed Democratic candidates for the US House of Representatives. In 2024 this group was roughly split between Trump and Kamala Harris, then vice president and the Democratic nominee.
Black men moved even further. Only about 1 in 10 backed a Republican House candidate, down from about 1 in 4 who backed Trump in 2024.
Hispanic Voters Return in Texas, Not Everywhere
About one-third of Hispanic voters backed a Republican House candidate, down from about 4 in 10 who backed Trump in 2024. Hispanic voters are the group most closely tied to Latin America, and their vote is closely watched by investors and companies with exposure to the region.
In Texas, about 6 in 10 Hispanic voters backed Democrat James Talarico, a Texas state representative, in the Senate race, and about 3 in 10 backed Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general. In Florida, fewer than half of Hispanic voters backed Republican Senator Ashley Moody, so the pattern was not uniform.
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Moderates and Lower-Income Voters Shift
About two-thirds of moderates, meaning voters who call their views middle of the road, backed Democratic House candidates. Harris won about 6 in 10 of them in 2024.
Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton won about 7 in 10 moderates in Kansas. Among voters in households earning less than US$50,000 a year, more than half backed Democrats.
In Georgia, about 9 in 10 Black men backed Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former mayor of Atlanta, in the governor’s race.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, prices Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader in the House, as the next Speaker, the chamber’s presiding officer, at about 94%, with US$13,557 traded as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 4. The market’s end date has passed and its resolution is pending. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
The survey suggests Trump’s 2024 gains with young, Hispanic and Black voters did not carry over to the House races in 2026. Lower-income households were part of that shift, which puts the cost of living at the centre of the next two years in Washington.
The new Congress takes office in early January, and its first votes will show whether these voters see results. Another swing toward Republicans by the presidential election on Nov. 7, 2028 would end the story.
What Is Not Known
Final seat counts in the House and Senate are not part of this survey, and we have not confirmed them here. Group figures are approximate and carry wider margins of error than the full sample, and the shift may differ from state to state.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which voter groups moved back to Democrats?
Voters under 30, Hispanic voters, Black men, moderates and lower-income voters. All five had shifted toward Donald Trump in 2024, according to the SSRS survey.
How accurate is the survey?
The margin of error is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample. Figures for single groups, such as Black men, carry larger margins.
Sources: SSRS, 2026 national voter survey; Polymarket market data.
Read more: Latino voters midterms 2026 · midterm odds · US midterms 2026 dossier
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief