Brazil Stocks Fall 1.4% Before Rate Decision | Morning Call, Nov 4

Source: market close, 3 November 2026.

01 The setup in one read

Think of B3 this morning as a patient waiting for a doctor’s verdict. The Ibovespa closed at its lowest in at least six months after six straight falls, and the dollar closed at its highest against the real in the same period.

Tonight Copom speaks. Its 282nd meeting ends today, and the decision is due after the market closes, around 18:30 in Brasilia time according to the RT calendar, which is 21:30 in Lisbon.

Traders therefore have a day to fill without the answer. Expect cautious positioning, with the real and the long-term interest-rate futures — bets on where borrowing costs will sit years out — telling the story more than the headline index.

Our research could not find an indicated open for the index or the dollar, so the tables below show a dash where that number would be. We prefer a blank to a guess.

02 Where Brazil is set to open

The table reads as a map of nerves, not of direction. The only pre-open signal we can state with confidence is that the real is the fragile link, since the global dollar index fell while the Brazilian currency did not benefit.

The nearest levels are blunt. For stocks, 160,000 is the next round number and 150,454 the 12-month low; for the currency, 5.50 is the round number and 5.59 the high of the past year.

03 On the B3 radar today — Copom’s Selic decision after the close

The day is built around one evening event. Dawn inflation and afternoon jobs data only shape how loudly Copom can sound.

Tuesday’s releases that our calendar feed had not yet filled: JOLTs Job Openings (a US survey of vacancies; consensus 7.13 million, previous 7.079 million), JOLTs Job Quits (consensus 3.05 million, previous 3.066 million) and Brazil’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, a factory survey where readings below 50 mean contraction (consensus 43, previous 44.8).

Today’s US data: ADP Employment Change, a private-sector payrolls report, at 13:15 Lisbon time (consensus 65,000, previous 90,000), then ISM Services Employment (from the Institute for Supply Management’s services survey; consensus 50, previous 50.1) and ISM Services New Orders (consensus 59.5, previous 59.8) at 15:00, plus ISM Services Business Activity (consensus 56, previous 56.5). The EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change (previous −0.624 million barrels), a gauge of storage at the main US oil hub, follows at 15:30. Firm US data tends to lift the dollar, which would add pressure on the real. Source: RT economic calendar (RT).

Tomorrow the calendar fills: industrial production at 09:00 and the S&P Global services and composite purchasing-manager surveys at 10:00, both Brasilia time. Forecasts show industrial output weak and the services survey below 50, which signals contraction.

04 Copom and the macro backdrop

The Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, has stood at 13.75% since 17 September, according to the central bank’s own data. Two 0.25-point cuts took effect on 6 August and 17 September, after the year began at 15.00%.

The RT calendar consensus for today is a hold, and the pricing of Brazil’s interest-rate futures was not available to us, so the exact market wager is less clear than usual.

Politics is the louder story. Economist André Lara Resende, who helped design the 1994 Real Plan that ended hyperinflation, proposes cutting the Selic toward 7.5% within a year, and some allies of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva back him. Finance Minister Dario Durigan says no rate-cap plan is under study, and critics warn about the central bank’s independence.

The official statement will appear on the central bank website, bcb.gov.br.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket’s “Bank of Brazil decision in November?” market, with US$152,332 traded, prices no change at 88.1%, a 0.25-point cut at 11.0% and a cut of 0.5 point or more at 1.0% (as of 11:14 p.m. ET, 3 November). For December, the same platform gives no change 65.0% and a 0.25-point cut 23.5%.

These are bets, not polls.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

05 Corporate stories to watch today

Petrobras, the state-run oil company, fell 3.8% on Tuesday (its PETR4 shares closed at R$50.71, about US$9.24 at 5.49 reais per dollar), the heaviest trading among the large caps we checked. That weighed on the Ibovespa, and today’s US oil-inventory report at 12:30 Brasilia time may move it again.

Mercado Bitcoin, a Brazilian crypto exchange, suspended deposits and withdrawals on Monday, 2 November, after what it calls a contained security incident. Hypernative, a blockchain-security firm, estimates more than US$40 million left wallets linked to the exchange, but the company has confirmed no loss figure and says no client lost money.

06 The levels to watch at the open

For the Ibovespa, the nearest floor is the round 160,000 and then the 12-month low of 150,454. Overhead, the 9 October peak of 209,067 is far away, so the first real hurdle is simply the recent range.

For the real, the key marks are 5.50 and the 12-month high of 5.59 from 22 December 2025. A close beyond 5.59 would put the real at its weakest in a year.

Here is the RT base rate, which is history and not a forecast. After 12 earlier falls in the Ibovespa as large as this 20-session drop, it was higher 20 sessions later in 6 of 12 cases, a median of −0.1% with a worst case of −29.0%.

For the dollar against the real, in 18 earlier rises of this size, it was higher 20 sessions later in 7 of 18 cases (39%), with a median of −1.0%. Across Latin America, the Colombian peso and Mexican peso also weakened yesterday while Mexico’s IPC index rose, so Brazil’s worry is not shared by every neighbour.

07 What to watch

• Copom statement: Tonight after the close: the hold-or-cut call and the language on inflation and public spending.
• Long-term rates: Whether futures yields ease after the decision; they are the clearest read on fiscal worry.
• Real near 5.50: A break of the 5.59 12-month high would mark a new phase for the currency.
• Thursday data: Industrial production at 09:00 and purchasing-manager surveys at 10:00 Brasilia time.

Background: Wheat Fund Falls 1.57% as Corn Slips 0.98%.

Background: Oil Fund Rises 0.83% as Fuel Shortage Persists.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the Copom decision today?

The RT calendar lists it for 21:30 Lisbon time, which is 18:30 in Brasilia, after B3 closes.

What is the Selic expected to do?

The RT calendar consensus is a hold at 13.75%, while Polymarket bettors give a 0.25-point cut about 11% (3 November, 11:14 p.m. ET).

Why is the real weak?

The sell-off began on 26 October, the first session after the 25 October runoff; the global dollar index fell, so the move is mainly local.

Are there earnings today?

We could not confirm any earnings or ex-dividend dates for today.

Market data: The Rio Times

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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